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  • March 6, 2010 at 6:54 PM #17152
    EconProf
    Participant

    Just sold my last CA property–not counting my residence. Made tons of money over the decades, lost a chunk by not selling all at the peak, but can’t complain. Houses, apartments, commercial.
    While we love San Diego and will stay here, mostly for the weather, we started thinking years ago that the California dream is over and economic, political, and demographic trends doom real estate investments here to sub-par performance indefinitely.
    California is bleeding jobs, businesses, and middle-class families due to terminally stupid government policies at all levels. Sacramento is oblivious to its job-killing policies such as AB 32, which will soon cause utility rates to skyrocket. Add inevitable big tax hikes and government service cutbacks to face the tsunami of a deficit and you have a deteriorating quality of life and an increasing exodus. With 12% of the nation’s population and 32% of the welfare caseload, guess what will happen to our demographic composition.
    At the local level, the teachers’ unions own the school board and the public employee unions and their iron-clad pensions are bankrupting the City of San Diego. Given political and demographic trends, none of this is about to change.
    So I took all my profits and did 1031 exchanges into properties in Arizona. Whoops.
    In hindsight, I should have picked Texas or some other non-bubble state that had good demographics and a business-friendly government. Many come to mind. However, in the long run, which is all that counts to me, AZ will come back…in part by attracting CA businesses and citizens fleeing our economic future. Yesterday, as evidence of CA’s decline, the unemployment rate went UP to 12.5% while the nation’s has been stable or falling of late. And they just revised CA’s job loss estimate for 2009 up to 936,000 from 579,400.
    CA will always have its strong enclaves, such as Santa Barbara, San Francisco, coastal San Diego, etc. But the state as a whole will fare worse than the rest of the nation if present trends continue.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:03 PM #521955
    danielwis
    Participant

    Its really hard to predict the future of California. The state definitely has to clean up its mess, but it also has a lot going for it.

    Remember back in the 70’s and 80’s when NYC was a dump? People at the time thought the city was lost forever. They turned it around. They cleaned up and put out the welcome mat and tourism and business soared.

    Sometimes when things look the bleakest, is the time when the turn around begins. I agree with you though, the people are going to have to do some house cleaning, probably reverse prop 13, and reform the welfare system in the state.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:03 PM #522096
    danielwis
    Participant

    Its really hard to predict the future of California. The state definitely has to clean up its mess, but it also has a lot going for it.

    Remember back in the 70’s and 80’s when NYC was a dump? People at the time thought the city was lost forever. They turned it around. They cleaned up and put out the welcome mat and tourism and business soared.

    Sometimes when things look the bleakest, is the time when the turn around begins. I agree with you though, the people are going to have to do some house cleaning, probably reverse prop 13, and reform the welfare system in the state.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:03 PM #522529
    danielwis
    Participant

    Its really hard to predict the future of California. The state definitely has to clean up its mess, but it also has a lot going for it.

    Remember back in the 70’s and 80’s when NYC was a dump? People at the time thought the city was lost forever. They turned it around. They cleaned up and put out the welcome mat and tourism and business soared.

    Sometimes when things look the bleakest, is the time when the turn around begins. I agree with you though, the people are going to have to do some house cleaning, probably reverse prop 13, and reform the welfare system in the state.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:03 PM #522623
    danielwis
    Participant

    Its really hard to predict the future of California. The state definitely has to clean up its mess, but it also has a lot going for it.

    Remember back in the 70’s and 80’s when NYC was a dump? People at the time thought the city was lost forever. They turned it around. They cleaned up and put out the welcome mat and tourism and business soared.

    Sometimes when things look the bleakest, is the time when the turn around begins. I agree with you though, the people are going to have to do some house cleaning, probably reverse prop 13, and reform the welfare system in the state.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:03 PM #522882
    danielwis
    Participant

    Its really hard to predict the future of California. The state definitely has to clean up its mess, but it also has a lot going for it.

    Remember back in the 70’s and 80’s when NYC was a dump? People at the time thought the city was lost forever. They turned it around. They cleaned up and put out the welcome mat and tourism and business soared.

    Sometimes when things look the bleakest, is the time when the turn around begins. I agree with you though, the people are going to have to do some house cleaning, probably reverse prop 13, and reform the welfare system in the state.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:41 PM #521975
    EconProf
    Participant

    Interesting you should mention New York City as an example of a basket case turning itself around. The major factor was one Mayor Guliani, who brought fiscal soundness and a tough-on-crime regime to city government, largely maintained by the current Republican mayor.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:41 PM #522114
    EconProf
    Participant

    Interesting you should mention New York City as an example of a basket case turning itself around. The major factor was one Mayor Guliani, who brought fiscal soundness and a tough-on-crime regime to city government, largely maintained by the current Republican mayor.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:41 PM #522549
    EconProf
    Participant

    Interesting you should mention New York City as an example of a basket case turning itself around. The major factor was one Mayor Guliani, who brought fiscal soundness and a tough-on-crime regime to city government, largely maintained by the current Republican mayor.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:41 PM #522643
    EconProf
    Participant

    Interesting you should mention New York City as an example of a basket case turning itself around. The major factor was one Mayor Guliani, who brought fiscal soundness and a tough-on-crime regime to city government, largely maintained by the current Republican mayor.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:41 PM #522902
    EconProf
    Participant

    Interesting you should mention New York City as an example of a basket case turning itself around. The major factor was one Mayor Guliani, who brought fiscal soundness and a tough-on-crime regime to city government, largely maintained by the current Republican mayor.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:50 PM #521980
    patientrenter
    Participant

    [quote=EconProf]……The major factor was one Mayor Guliani…[/quote]

    You also need things to get so bad for so long that almost everyone is sick of the status quo. You’re not quite there yet in California. Some people still think the problem is taxes that are too low. Give it another decade.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:50 PM #522119
    patientrenter
    Participant

    [quote=EconProf]……The major factor was one Mayor Guliani…[/quote]

    You also need things to get so bad for so long that almost everyone is sick of the status quo. You’re not quite there yet in California. Some people still think the problem is taxes that are too low. Give it another decade.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:50 PM #522554
    patientrenter
    Participant

    [quote=EconProf]……The major factor was one Mayor Guliani…[/quote]

    You also need things to get so bad for so long that almost everyone is sick of the status quo. You’re not quite there yet in California. Some people still think the problem is taxes that are too low. Give it another decade.

    March 6, 2010 at 7:50 PM #522648
    patientrenter
    Participant

    [quote=EconProf]……The major factor was one Mayor Guliani…[/quote]

    You also need things to get so bad for so long that almost everyone is sick of the status quo. You’re not quite there yet in California. Some people still think the problem is taxes that are too low. Give it another decade.

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