thank you all for your insightful comments! in answer to SD Realtor’s question, if we rented out our SD home, moved to OC, and just started stockpiling money for 2-3 years, then yes, we would probably be able to afford to buy up there without selling our home in SD (this process would be accelerated in the event of more OC declines/slowed in the event of a faster OC recovery). Former San Diegan, you make a good point about us owning the home free and clear in 15 (now 13 =) years, and in the meantime having someone pay our mortgage for us while we still get to deduct interest and property taxes. do even the most bearish of bears on this forum think the house will be worth more in 13 years than it is now (independent of inflation, that is)?