Some numbers – Piggington's Econo-Almanac

This topic has 100 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 15 years ago by sdrealtor.

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November 14, 2009 at 2:15 AM #16660

SD Realtor
Participant

I have received some emails from piggs over the last few weeks to post some statistics like I used to. Sorry I have not been able to do so for the past many months but I have been busy. Of course I also I got sucked into to many non real estate related posts. I have vowed in the past to try to stay away from those threads as they end up wasting alot of my time and energy. Obviously I have failed but will try to do so again…. and will probably fail as well.

So what I did here was to take the 91913 zip code and look at previous sales over 6 month periods. I also wanted to look at cancel/expired/withdrawn in that same period. This is an effective way to measure the ratio of sales to non sales so to speak. When a property is listed on the MLS it either gets sold, expired, cancelled or withdrawn.

I wanted to see if anything jumped out at me. One of the premises I hear alot of people talk about is the exhaustion of buyers. That stimulus policies are good for the short run but will only serve to exhaust the buyers pool. I think in the case of extraordinary levels of sales this is a good point. However I do not see an extraordinary number of sales. In fact I see that in the second half of 2008 we had the highest volume of sales and I believe that was before the incentives kicked in. To me that point in time represented the last bastion of the “free market” with respect to housing.

Make no mistake, these incentives and interest rates ABSOLUTELY increase sales. In my opinion the low interest rates are much more important then the credit. However what is very extraordinary to me is the low cancel/exp/with level. Sheesh these numbers are at near peak bubble numbers with comparable sales numbers.

Anyways have fun with the numbers and maybe I can do some other zips over the next week. I would be interested to see what a high end zip looks like. I think I already know.

91913

Period Sales Cancel/Exp/With Avg Pric
2/2 09 195 36 48 20 387k
1/2 09 278 77 67 11 384k
2/2 08 335 94 166 1 412k
1/2 08 203 177 137 0 441k
2/2 07 107 157 251 0 536k
1/2 07 127 167 155 0 600k
2/2 06 173 148 207 0 629k
2/1 06 161 128 96 0 664k
2/2 05 280 77 88 0 673k
2/1 05 289 78 61 0 653k
2/2 04 291 65 51 0 635k
1/2 04 296 20 23 0 550k
2/2 03 306 36 25 0 477k
1/2 03 196 28 36 0 407k

November 14, 2009 at 9:20 AM #482833

NotCranky
Participant

Can you give us an analysis of 91935 please. Data and commentary.
Thanks

November 14, 2009 at 9:20 AM #483000

NotCranky
Participant

Can you give us an analysis of 91935 please. Data and commentary.
Thanks

November 14, 2009 at 9:20 AM #483370

NotCranky
Participant

Can you give us an analysis of 91935 please. Data and commentary.
Thanks

November 14, 2009 at 9:20 AM #483450

NotCranky
Participant

Can you give us an analysis of 91935 please. Data and commentary.
Thanks

November 14, 2009 at 9:20 AM #483676

NotCranky
Participant

Can you give us an analysis of 91935 please. Data and commentary.
Thanks

November 14, 2009 at 9:34 AM #482843

ocrenter
Participant

[quote=SD Realtor]
91913

Period Sales Cancel/Exp/With Avg Pric
2/2 09 195 36 48 20 387k
1/2 09 278 77 67 11 384k
2/2 08 335 94 166 1 412k
1/2 08 203 177 137 0 441k
2/2 07 107 157 251 0 536k
1/2 07 127 167 155 0 600k
2/2 06 173 148 207 0 629k
2/1 06 161 128 96 0 664k
2/2 05 280 77 88 0 673k
2/1 05 289 78 61 0 653k
2/2 04 291 65 51 0 635k
1/2 04 296 20 23 0 550k
2/2 03 306 36 25 0 477k
1/2 03 196 28 36 0 407k
[/quote]

the canceled and expired listings are the leading indicators, it looks like. with uptick in those numbers starting in 05 foreshadowing the free fall in prices. with those numbers stabilizing, the prices are stabilizing as well.

with 2/2 09 ratio of sales vs cancel/exp/with at 2:1, is that a ratio we typically see in a flat market? 1/2 03 ratio was 3:1, while 1/2 04 ratio went up to 6.8:1

November 14, 2009 at 9:34 AM #483010

ocrenter
Participant

[quote=SD Realtor]
91913

Period Sales Cancel/Exp/With Avg Pric
2/2 09 195 36 48 20 387k
1/2 09 278 77 67 11 384k
2/2 08 335 94 166 1 412k
1/2 08 203 177 137 0 441k
2/2 07 107 157 251 0 536k
1/2 07 127 167 155 0 600k
2/2 06 173 148 207 0 629k
2/1 06 161 128 96 0 664k
2/2 05 280 77 88 0 673k
2/1 05 289 78 61 0 653k
2/2 04 291 65 51 0 635k
1/2 04 296 20 23 0 550k
2/2 03 306 36 25 0 477k
1/2 03 196 28 36 0 407k
[/quote]

the canceled and expired listings are the leading indicators, it looks like. with uptick in those numbers starting in 05 foreshadowing the free fall in prices. with those numbers stabilizing, the prices are stabilizing as well.

with 2/2 09 ratio of sales vs cancel/exp/with at 2:1, is that a ratio we typically see in a flat market? 1/2 03 ratio was 3:1, while 1/2 04 ratio went up to 6.8:1

November 14, 2009 at 9:34 AM #483380

ocrenter
Participant

[quote=SD Realtor]
91913

Period Sales Cancel/Exp/With Avg Pric
2/2 09 195 36 48 20 387k
1/2 09 278 77 67 11 384k
2/2 08 335 94 166 1 412k
1/2 08 203 177 137 0 441k
2/2 07 107 157 251 0 536k
1/2 07 127 167 155 0 600k
2/2 06 173 148 207 0 629k
2/1 06 161 128 96 0 664k
2/2 05 280 77 88 0 673k
2/1 05 289 78 61 0 653k
2/2 04 291 65 51 0 635k
1/2 04 296 20 23 0 550k
2/2 03 306 36 25 0 477k
1/2 03 196 28 36 0 407k
[/quote]

the canceled and expired listings are the leading indicators, it looks like. with uptick in those numbers starting in 05 foreshadowing the free fall in prices. with those numbers stabilizing, the prices are stabilizing as well.

with 2/2 09 ratio of sales vs cancel/exp/with at 2:1, is that a ratio we typically see in a flat market? 1/2 03 ratio was 3:1, while 1/2 04 ratio went up to 6.8:1

November 14, 2009 at 9:34 AM #483460

ocrenter
Participant

[quote=SD Realtor]
91913

Period Sales Cancel/Exp/With Avg Pric
2/2 09 195 36 48 20 387k
1/2 09 278 77 67 11 384k
2/2 08 335 94 166 1 412k
1/2 08 203 177 137 0 441k
2/2 07 107 157 251 0 536k
1/2 07 127 167 155 0 600k
2/2 06 173 148 207 0 629k
2/1 06 161 128 96 0 664k
2/2 05 280 77 88 0 673k
2/1 05 289 78 61 0 653k
2/2 04 291 65 51 0 635k
1/2 04 296 20 23 0 550k
2/2 03 306 36 25 0 477k
1/2 03 196 28 36 0 407k
[/quote]

the canceled and expired listings are the leading indicators, it looks like. with uptick in those numbers starting in 05 foreshadowing the free fall in prices. with those numbers stabilizing, the prices are stabilizing as well.

with 2/2 09 ratio of sales vs cancel/exp/with at 2:1, is that a ratio we typically see in a flat market? 1/2 03 ratio was 3:1, while 1/2 04 ratio went up to 6.8:1

November 14, 2009 at 9:34 AM #483686

ocrenter
Participant

[quote=SD Realtor]
91913

Period Sales Cancel/Exp/With Avg Pric
2/2 09 195 36 48 20 387k
1/2 09 278 77 67 11 384k
2/2 08 335 94 166 1 412k
1/2 08 203 177 137 0 441k
2/2 07 107 157 251 0 536k
1/2 07 127 167 155 0 600k
2/2 06 173 148 207 0 629k
2/1 06 161 128 96 0 664k
2/2 05 280 77 88 0 673k
2/1 05 289 78 61 0 653k
2/2 04 291 65 51 0 635k
1/2 04 296 20 23 0 550k
2/2 03 306 36 25 0 477k
1/2 03 196 28 36 0 407k
[/quote]

the canceled and expired listings are the leading indicators, it looks like. with uptick in those numbers starting in 05 foreshadowing the free fall in prices. with those numbers stabilizing, the prices are stabilizing as well.

with 2/2 09 ratio of sales vs cancel/exp/with at 2:1, is that a ratio we typically see in a flat market? 1/2 03 ratio was 3:1, while 1/2 04 ratio went up to 6.8:1

November 15, 2009 at 6:04 PM #483154

SD Realtor
Participant

Hi Rus

Here are the stats, I just confined it to a full year search instead of 6 month increments. Also per the 91913 is it detached homes only. Also the exp/canc/with are summed up.

solds exp/canc/with avg price

09 60 92 479k
08 56 142 558k
07 59 192 811k
06 79 161 832k
05 93 90 841k
04 136 62 722k
03 86 71 558k

As this is your neighborhood you have better insights then I would here. However more rural areas like this have drastic variety of home sizes, types and lot sizes. Thus the prices vary alot more widely. Still the numbers seem to show the same secular pattern as one would expect. Here we are with still 45 days left and the sales total have exceeded 07 and 08. Similarly the exp/canc/with for 09 will come nowhere near 07-08. Also as the numbers show the volume peak in 04 would be consistent with outlier areas falling apart sooner then more suburban areas.

November 15, 2009 at 6:04 PM #483322

SD Realtor
Participant

Hi Rus

Here are the stats, I just confined it to a full year search instead of 6 month increments. Also per the 91913 is it detached homes only. Also the exp/canc/with are summed up.

solds exp/canc/with avg price

09 60 92 479k
08 56 142 558k
07 59 192 811k
06 79 161 832k
05 93 90 841k
04 136 62 722k
03 86 71 558k

As this is your neighborhood you have better insights then I would here. However more rural areas like this have drastic variety of home sizes, types and lot sizes. Thus the prices vary alot more widely. Still the numbers seem to show the same secular pattern as one would expect. Here we are with still 45 days left and the sales total have exceeded 07 and 08. Similarly the exp/canc/with for 09 will come nowhere near 07-08. Also as the numbers show the volume peak in 04 would be consistent with outlier areas falling apart sooner then more suburban areas.

November 15, 2009 at 6:04 PM #483693

SD Realtor
Participant

Hi Rus

Here are the stats, I just confined it to a full year search instead of 6 month increments. Also per the 91913 is it detached homes only. Also the exp/canc/with are summed up.

solds exp/canc/with avg price

09 60 92 479k
08 56 142 558k
07 59 192 811k
06 79 161 832k
05 93 90 841k
04 136 62 722k
03 86 71 558k

As this is your neighborhood you have better insights then I would here. However more rural areas like this have drastic variety of home sizes, types and lot sizes. Thus the prices vary alot more widely. Still the numbers seem to show the same secular pattern as one would expect. Here we are with still 45 days left and the sales total have exceeded 07 and 08. Similarly the exp/canc/with for 09 will come nowhere near 07-08. Also as the numbers show the volume peak in 04 would be consistent with outlier areas falling apart sooner then more suburban areas.

November 15, 2009 at 6:04 PM #483775

SD Realtor
Participant

Hi Rus

Here are the stats, I just confined it to a full year search instead of 6 month increments. Also per the 91913 is it detached homes only. Also the exp/canc/with are summed up.

solds exp/canc/with avg price

09 60 92 479k
08 56 142 558k
07 59 192 811k
06 79 161 832k
05 93 90 841k
04 136 62 722k
03 86 71 558k

As this is your neighborhood you have better insights then I would here. However more rural areas like this have drastic variety of home sizes, types and lot sizes. Thus the prices vary alot more widely. Still the numbers seem to show the same secular pattern as one would expect. Here we are with still 45 days left and the sales total have exceeded 07 and 08. Similarly the exp/canc/with for 09 will come nowhere near 07-08. Also as the numbers show the volume peak in 04 would be consistent with outlier areas falling apart sooner then more suburban areas.
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