PB, You need to prove the assertion that "if a bank were to fail, it wouldn't come as a surprise." What about Netbank?? There were some small online business that had $1M in Netbank and got screwed. Guess the news didnt tell the 1500 people here:
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/netbank-failure-hurts-high-balance-accounts-51303.aspx

You could watch the stock prices if its public or get Weiss rating at
http://www.weissratings.com/HL_Bank.asp