wow, simply amazing, it is like he had a crystal ball. I love how so many of the other talking heads were way way off. Thanks for the link.

wow, simply amazing, it is like he had a crystal ball. I love how so many of the other talking heads were way way off. Thanks for the link.

I actually think people shouldn’t trust experts too much, period. Philip Tetlock, a professor at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business once did a study. The result is that experts are normally even not as good as non-experts. That’s because they don’t modify their forecasts in the light of new information, as they felt that they knew all the relevant facts. Such kind of over-confidence will blind them from making accurate prediction about the future.
It’s a dangerous path that I see many very smart piggie are going down with.

I actually think people shouldn’t trust experts too much, period. Philip Tetlock, a professor at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business once did a study. The result is that experts are normally even not as good as non-experts. That’s because they don’t modify their forecasts in the light of new information, as they felt that they knew all the relevant facts. Such kind of over-confidence will blind them from making accurate prediction about the future.
It’s a dangerous path that I see many very smart piggie are going down with.

I actually think people shouldn’t trust experts too much, period. Philip Tetlock, a professor at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business once did a study. The result is that experts are normally even not as good as non-experts. That’s because they don’t modify their forecasts in the light of new information, as they felt that they knew all the relevant facts. Such kind of over-confidence will blind them from making accurate prediction about the future.
It’s a dangerous path that I see many very smart piggie are going down with.

Schiff said a lot of things during those years, I read and watched him for years. In the case of R/E he was right, in credit and the financials he was right. But before you declare hims the next Kobe (what a game tonight, D-Fish is a god and I was right about Ariza but Sd Realtor was right about Farmar, sorry back to my comment) Schiff was wrong a lot too. He owns/runs euro pac capital, and he was pimping euro and asian investments as a safe haven from our bubble. Roubini was the one that often said that the u.s. would drag the rest of the world with it, Schiff thought they would go up or remain stable while we fell.

Here is an article about Schiff’s other predictions

http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090213

and one from mish’s blog

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html

he predicted in may of 2008 that right now we would have $150-$200 oil, 1200-1500 gold, the dollar would lose 50% and commodities would do well.

Bloggers and articles in the msm cite 40-70% losses for people who invested with europac and followed his advice.

So he got one or two right and not others, hell I do that at the blackjack table and the singles bar, but I know I don’t have a crystal ball. A few months ago I posted a few stocks I was contemplating, they are all up and half of them are up 500%, I’m a knucklehead throwing darts and I beat the crap out of Schiff, what does that tell you.

Is he a smart guy, yes, he is. Did some of his predictions come true, yes, some did, but I was tuned in back in 2006 and 2007 and he wasn’t the only one that saw it, but he gets credit for sticking his neck out. Was he right about where you should put your money, no, sorry, he made an educated guess and he was wrong. He’s no Kobe, he’s more of a Sasha Vujacic, he throws up a lot of 3 point shots, misses most of them, but he’s fun to watch and when he hits it’s cool, but with the game on the line, don’t give him the ball.

Schiff said a lot of things during those years, I read and watched him for years. In the case of R/E he was right, in credit and the financials he was right. But before you declare hims the next Kobe (what a game tonight, D-Fish is a god and I was right about Ariza but Sd Realtor was right about Farmar, sorry back to my comment) Schiff was wrong a lot too. He owns/runs euro pac capital, and he was pimping euro and asian investments as a safe haven from our bubble. Roubini was the one that often said that the u.s. would drag the rest of the world with it, Schiff thought they would go up or remain stable while we fell.

Here is an article about Schiff’s other predictions

http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090213

and one from mish’s blog

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html

he predicted in may of 2008 that right now we would have $150-$200 oil, 1200-1500 gold, the dollar would lose 50% and commodities would do well.

Bloggers and articles in the msm cite 40-70% losses for people who invested with europac and followed his advice.

So he got one or two right and not others, hell I do that at the blackjack table and the singles bar, but I know I don’t have a crystal ball. A few months ago I posted a few stocks I was contemplating, they are all up and half of them are up 500%, I’m a knucklehead throwing darts and I beat the crap out of Schiff, what does that tell you.

Is he a smart guy, yes, he is. Did some of his predictions come true, yes, some did, but I was tuned in back in 2006 and 2007 and he wasn’t the only one that saw it, but he gets credit for sticking his neck out. Was he right about where you should put your money, no, sorry, he made an educated guess and he was wrong. He’s no Kobe, he’s more of a Sasha Vujacic, he throws up a lot of 3 point shots, misses most of them, but he’s fun to watch and when he hits it’s cool, but with the game on the line, don’t give him the ball.