I think ultimately what I am trying to get to is the true number of bank owned properties that are being sold. Using the MLS as my database I realize that is a very poor vehicle to gain insight but it is all I have for the limited time I have to look into things. Just to note I did my numbers based on all San Diego county so that should smooth out regional disparities in the county.
I know that yes agents are sloppy or lazy but REO or bank owned properties are usually indicated. I would argue only a small sample are not.
I do better understand your analysis is from a NOD/NOT perspective. Also what bolsters your thoughts/numbers further are distressed sales from those who are not even NODDED or NOTTED yet. Also per esmiths input I would agree that REO sales should lookback much farther then the 3-4 months time. His numbers are dead on there.
I guess what I am really trying to find is the correlation of the number of foreclosures reported by foreclosureforum.com to the number of closed reo sales I see on the MLS. So if I look at the NOD numbers in 2007 and then the % that went to foreclosure, I should be seeing about 500 closings per month that would be REOs. This is a generously low number given the lagtime of the pipeline. That is I looked at the early spring numbers of NODs and the % number and then would expect to see roughly that many closed REO sales down the line.
I need to look at the data more tonite but can you see what I am trying to rough out? Yes there may be sloppiness in an agent not putting in the string I am looking for and such and I need to reread the other entries more closely.
It just is gnawing at me and I want to figure out the difference.
