Layoff’s slowing and the green shoot theory

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May 8, 2009 at 2:20 PM #15633

DWCAP
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http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/may/08/us-economy-050809/?business&zIndex=95865

Just a question, or more a thoery I have been noticing as of late. It seems that the government has learned to low ball the numbers in the intial reports, and then kinda slide in a better estimation (cause really it is an estimate, not a real accurate number) later on. Here is the key piece of the above article I am referencing:

Job losses in February and March turned out to be deeper, according to revised figures. Employers cut 681,000 positions in February, 30,000 more than previously reported. They cut 699,000 jobs in March, more than the 663,000 first reported.

“The deepest job cuts of the recession – 741,000 came in January. That was the most since the fall of 1949.

Employers last month cut the fewest jobs since 380,000 in October. Nonetheless, the April job losses were widespread.”

They originally guessed the job losses to only be 598000 for jan. Now we find out it was more like 741000. Somehow they missed the 140000 other losses. Add in the 65000 they missed in Feb and March and we are talking about over 200k jobs they didnt initially report in only three months.

And in this apparently ‘better’ report, we find that the majority of the reduction from expected was due to temporary government hireing for the 2010 census. Id be willing to wager a beer at the next get together that we see this new “better” report adjusted upwards in the next month or two, by atleast 20k jobs; which when added in with all the temporary government hiring would totally negate the differences we are seeing with estimates.

Maybe it isnt much of a theory, It just bugs me cause it seems like every month this year we hear about “green shoots” in the reports which turn out to be revised to nothing the next month as soon as everyone forgets.

Jan reference link:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/06/news/economy/jobs_january/index.htm

May 8, 2009 at 2:46 PM #395241

drboom
Participant

I think you’re on solid ground. Further, the very definition of “unemployment”, just like the Consumer Price Index, is changed to suit the spinmeisters’ needs.

See shadowstats.com if you want more realistic numbers.

May 8, 2009 at 2:46 PM #395909

drboom
Participant

I think you’re on solid ground. Further, the very definition of “unemployment”, just like the Consumer Price Index, is changed to suit the spinmeisters’ needs.

See shadowstats.com if you want more realistic numbers.

May 8, 2009 at 2:46 PM #395766

drboom
Participant

I think you’re on solid ground. Further, the very definition of “unemployment”, just like the Consumer Price Index, is changed to suit the spinmeisters’ needs.

See shadowstats.com if you want more realistic numbers.

May 8, 2009 at 2:46 PM #395713

drboom
Participant

I think you’re on solid ground. Further, the very definition of “unemployment”, just like the Consumer Price Index, is changed to suit the spinmeisters’ needs.

See shadowstats.com if you want more realistic numbers.

May 8, 2009 at 2:46 PM #395492

drboom
Participant

I think you’re on solid ground. Further, the very definition of “unemployment”, just like the Consumer Price Index, is changed to suit the spinmeisters’ needs.

See shadowstats.com if you want more realistic numbers.

May 8, 2009 at 2:49 PM #395771

Eugene
Participant

Bernanke eats shoots and leaves …

May 8, 2009 at 2:49 PM #395914

Eugene
Participant

Bernanke eats shoots and leaves …

May 8, 2009 at 2:49 PM #395246

Eugene
Participant

Bernanke eats shoots and leaves …

May 8, 2009 at 2:49 PM #395718

Eugene
Participant

Bernanke eats shoots and leaves …

May 8, 2009 at 2:49 PM #395497

Eugene
Participant

Bernanke eats shoots and leaves …

May 8, 2009 at 3:52 PM #395307

Arraya
Participant

The “perception control” that is appearing(intentionally or not) with unemployment falls into a bigger pattern with all other economic data. Usually, if you do a little digging, most cited data for an improving economy are based on misconstrued statistics or in some cases outright lies. You can find those when Bernake or Giethner speaks.

If I wanted to be less cynical, I would say it’s a natural proclivity towards optimism coupled with a few statistical aberrations to the point of being misleading.

If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.

If this latest episode follows the same narrative as the housing bubble, any measure of the true state of affairs won’t be acknowledged by the MSM until it just can’t hidden anymore. I’d say late summer/fall we should get another dose of economic reality. Unless, that is, you are one of the recently unemployed.

Also, with the latest report:

In addition the “birth-death adjustment” was +226,000, close to double the previous month. That’s the computer model that “estimates” the number of jobs that are created in the economy but unreported.

Makes me think they tweaked the bda so the market would react to the news. Otherwise it would have looked like last months with no appearance of improvement.

May 8, 2009 at 3:52 PM #395975

Arraya
Participant

The “perception control” that is appearing(intentionally or not) with unemployment falls into a bigger pattern with all other economic data. Usually, if you do a little digging, most cited data for an improving economy are based on misconstrued statistics or in some cases outright lies. You can find those when Bernake or Giethner speaks.

If I wanted to be less cynical, I would say it’s a natural proclivity towards optimism coupled with a few statistical aberrations to the point of being misleading.

If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.

If this latest episode follows the same narrative as the housing bubble, any measure of the true state of affairs won’t be acknowledged by the MSM until it just can’t hidden anymore. I’d say late summer/fall we should get another dose of economic reality. Unless, that is, you are one of the recently unemployed.

Also, with the latest report:

In addition the “birth-death adjustment” was +226,000, close to double the previous month. That’s the computer model that “estimates” the number of jobs that are created in the economy but unreported.

Makes me think they tweaked the bda so the market would react to the news. Otherwise it would have looked like last months with no appearance of improvement.

May 8, 2009 at 3:52 PM #395779

Arraya
Participant

The “perception control” that is appearing(intentionally or not) with unemployment falls into a bigger pattern with all other economic data. Usually, if you do a little digging, most cited data for an improving economy are based on misconstrued statistics or in some cases outright lies. You can find those when Bernake or Giethner speaks.

If I wanted to be less cynical, I would say it’s a natural proclivity towards optimism coupled with a few statistical aberrations to the point of being misleading.

If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.

If this latest episode follows the same narrative as the housing bubble, any measure of the true state of affairs won’t be acknowledged by the MSM until it just can’t hidden anymore. I’d say late summer/fall we should get another dose of economic reality. Unless, that is, you are one of the recently unemployed.

Also, with the latest report:

In addition the “birth-death adjustment” was +226,000, close to double the previous month. That’s the computer model that “estimates” the number of jobs that are created in the economy but unreported.

Makes me think they tweaked the bda so the market would react to the news. Otherwise it would have looked like last months with no appearance of improvement.

May 8, 2009 at 3:52 PM #395832

Arraya
Participant

The “perception control” that is appearing(intentionally or not) with unemployment falls into a bigger pattern with all other economic data. Usually, if you do a little digging, most cited data for an improving economy are based on misconstrued statistics or in some cases outright lies. You can find those when Bernake or Giethner speaks.

If I wanted to be less cynical, I would say it’s a natural proclivity towards optimism coupled with a few statistical aberrations to the point of being misleading.

If I wanted to be more cynical, I’d say they are purposely misleading people to milk them of their investment money. A pump and dump coordinated between the USG and the media. An optimism conspiracy.

If this latest episode follows the same narrative as the housing bubble, any measure of the true state of affairs won’t be acknowledged by the MSM until it just can’t hidden anymore. I’d say late summer/fall we should get another dose of economic reality. Unless, that is, you are one of the recently unemployed.

Also, with the latest report:

In addition the “birth-death adjustment” was +226,000, close to double the previous month. That’s the computer model that “estimates” the number of jobs that are created in the economy but unreported.

Makes me think they tweaked the bda so the market would react to the news. Otherwise it would have looked like last months with no appearance of improvement.
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