Hard to say whether we will have a recession or depression, though. Especially since I don’t think there is a textbook definition for depression other than ‘long recession’ (which is exactly what I think this will be, anyway).
There is likely to be unemployment on a large scale, probably not 25% like the 30’s though. Maybe more like 10-15%. I think new construction is going to stop and the economy will lose two other jobs for every one lost RE gig.
Those that still have jobs will face lower salaries, fewer raises and a reduced standard of living brought about by inflation and the destruction of consumer credit. Additionally, many that were planning an early retirement will find they will have to keep working, due to lost 401k and home equity.
The end result is everyone is going to have to learn to live within their means. I’m sure for many that is going to seem like a depression indeed!
Regardless, I saw this coming a few years ago and planned accordingly. It’s somewhat comforting that the sacrifices I’ve made over the past few years were worth it.
