sdr we are agreeing way to much lately. something has gotta give dude.
4spot – I guess I will not really back off my stance that I need to see a catalyst in order order to jar prices substantially. Like sdr said and interest rate hike would help push prices down, (although that likely will not adjust your monthly payment unless you are carrying alot of cash) or we need to see engineers, biotech people, and other similar 6 figure jobs diminish in order to quell the demand. I don’t ever trust any of the sales reps ANYWHERE. The prices will go up or down because of market conditions. If the market performs the prices will go up and if it does not they will go down. You may see a mid 600’s for a 3k sf home in Piensa by mid/late 08 but if I were a betting man, (and yeah okay I am) I would likely not take the bet. I would say it is close to impossible to see that pricing from the builder but perhaps a stray reo or short may fall that low with a little luck.
Maybe in 09 your odds are 50/50…
One thing that will be important is the number of distressed sales.
Okay so I did a swag search for you. Earlier in this thread I posted that in all of 92127 there were 22 detached homes that sold as the result of a short sale or a foreclosure. Now out of those 22, 1 closed escrow in 08 and one in 06. Thus there were 20 detached homes that were short or foreclosed that sold in 07 in 92127. Now the search I did were for homes built no earlier then 1999. Indeed if you look at all of those addresses these are all 4S homes with the exception of a few Santa Luz I believe. My point is that none of them are old RB.
Okay so now we do a general search on the total number of solds in 92127 for detached homes built no earlier then 1999 and we see a total of 319 sales for all of 07. So we can infer that 20/319 of the sales were due to shorts or foreclosures. To me, given that there are competitive new homes for sale in the area, and approximately only 6.2% of the inventory sold was short or foreclosed, I think it is to early to see a large shift in that location due to distress. I expect that we will see a higher number of distressed homes sell in 07-08 when we perform the same experiment next year. However I just don’t see enough blood yet. The good news is that it is spreading, look at SEH for instance.
Anyways I am sure lots of people can poke holes in the post. I am just reporting the numbers I see. Also as esmith pointed out, some of these foreclosures and distresses were low end 4S, condo ownership yet they were/are detached homes as listed on the MLS.
Sorry I cannot give you a price guestimate man. I am just not good at that and this spring… well… I just don’t know but I see some sales activity keeping pricing afloat. Just my guess. The January numbers for 92127 detached homes built later then 1999 were 25 for last year. So far for this year they are 24. Note this is only resale.
