Let me apologize in advance for my hysteria.

I resisted buying while the bubble was filling with air. Someone watching over me, b/c I made low offers that were rejected.

I’ve been tracking listings, watching them go on and off the market. I’ve been tracking NODs and foreclosures. I have seen properties sell for considerably less. I’m understanding the concept of land tsunami and how it eventually will hit the coast. I see declines in condo values there, the weakest link, so I’m hopeful.

I’m watching the stock market crash. Stocks like Apple has lost half it’s value in a year’s time. I watched the Nouriel Roubini interview posted on this board. I hear what Mr. Mortgage is saying. I’m watching unemployment rise. What am I doing wrong? Am I getting the wrong memos? Is the coast really immune?

Ok. Please let me explain my rant. I’ve been following many properties and this particular one has been on my radar, 1076 Diamond in P.B. for over the past 3 years. It’s 2 units, each 2/1. It’s on a smaller than usual lot for P.B., I think 4,000 or 5,000 sf.

Don’t know how they got it zoned multiple, as usually it needs to be 6,300 sf. In any case, zoned multiple.

This property when I first noticed it was on the market in 2005 for over a year for a million. I laughed back then, of course, telling myself it is the real estate frenzy.

Even during the peak, it wasn’t moving. The owner lived in Florida. It was a rental. It eventually got reduced to 950k. The downstairs unit was outdated. The upstairs unit was better, kitchen redone, but still shoddy.

I really liked the place. I made an offer after it sat for almost another year of 850k. S/O kept pressuring how we have to buy. I ran the numbers and selling my commercial property would get us in this place. They rejected the offer.

I wasn’t going to go in over my head. I was already thinking I was crazy for offering 850k. In 2000 it sold for 435k. Some people were saying it would go back to 2001 levels. I didn’t think it would happen on the coast, but I wasn’t about to overpay either. In October 2006 it ended up selling for 940k. I was quite shocked at the time.

I found out the woman that bought it had money. Well, rather her ex was giving her money so I guess I consoled myself in the fact she had no sense of value of money. I just moved on and watch the market and other listings.

1162 Diamond sells in January for 710k. The triplex next door at 1058-64 sells for 815k in December 2007.

So I just reassure myself that she just overpaid and I’m not crazy, just the rest of the world.

In my tracking of NODs, guess what pops up again on my radar. Yes. 1076 Diamond gets a NOD in March 2008.

Reinstatement Amount: $22,409.00
Original Loan:$752,000.00
Loan Date-File#: 10/06

She was scheduled for foreclosure on 7-10.
Total Outstanding Dept ~ $790,355.00
Re-Instatement Amount: $22,409.00

Meanwhile 1211 Diamond sells in May for 715k. Then 1076 Diamond lists. It was listed for a very short period of time, something like 700k, but then removed. I’m thinking their feeble attempt at short sale. Once the bank gets it back, then there will be a real price.

I go to investigate 1076 Diamond. It appears the interior is gutted. Yep. So I find out she doesn’t live there. Never did. It was a rental and some arrangement is made w/some guy who bought it from her, but didn’t really buy it b/c it’s still in her name and she’s getting the NODs and foreclosure notice, but basically in her mind it’s sold, but not really. But this guy or someone ripped the interior. Maybe it was her. They were going to rehab the place and make it like a shelter for abused women or recovering alcoholics. I don’t know. The details are vague.

So w/just studs in the walls and questionable plumbing and electrical, windows ripped out and now covered w/plastic, basically uninhabitable, I’m having a good laugh wondering who the hell the bank is going to sell it to and for what price. I mean, no bank is going to lend on it now. It’s going to have to be a cash offer or construction loan. The last house that sold on that street was for 715k and that was liveable and loanable.

It sits like this all summer. Every time I drive by, the weeds are growing in the yard, the plastic covering the windows, empty.

I’m trying to figure out what’s the most someone will drop on it. I’m thinking it will take 100k minimum to redo both units. A flipper/investor will want to make some money.

They’re not going to overpay. I’m thinking 450 to 500k, right? The market sucks now from last May. Banks are failing. Economy worldwide in turmoil.

I keep waiting for the bank to list it. Well, last night S/O informs me Diamond was on “Flip this House.” They bought it and are going to put 100k in it and sell it – get this – for 1.2 million!!!

WHAT???!!! That can’t be. It wasn’t even listed. It hasn’t sold according to my resources from county or SDLookup. I go to Redfin. Sure enough it sold for 655k 1076 Diamond on 10-3-08.

How is this possible?! I really need someone to help me understand. I’m trying very hard to do everything I can to make the best decision possible in this real estate market.

I want a house, but I’m trying to avoid mistakes. Someone please tell me I’m not crazy. I refuse to accept the coast is immune. 803 Wilbur on the corner of Mission just sold for 595k. Back in May they were asking 675k. A few months earlier, this knifecatcher bought 4878 Mission sold in March for 750k. Previously at peak sold 11/22/2004 for $810k. That means 155k drop in 7 months.

Yet “Flip this House” buys Diamond for 655k and plans to sell it for 1.2 million. What am I missing here? How can this show even continue to exist? I’m very confused and distraught.