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  • September 27, 2008 at 11:31 AM #13977
    stockstradr
    Participant

    I noticed Roubini Global Economics has allowed temporary access to a mp3 recording of a one-hour teleconference he did for his paid subscribers.

    Roubini is absolutely brilliant on that teleconference. He covers the length and depth of the expected recession. He also covers the bailout. Remember, he’s one of the very few economists who had the courage to predict accurately the dire situation we are now facing in the economy and financial markets. I’ve been reading Roubini now for three years.

    During the last two years I made multiple market bets based upon Roubini’s predictions and I credit that for the very substantial amounts of money I made. This economist is brilliant.

    1) go to the web site
    http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini

    2) Register for a temporary acccess; it is free

    3) Search for the “Nouriel Roubini: Conference Call Replay Sep 24, 2008”

    Currently it is linked on the right side of the web site. Download the audio file after you’ve logged in. It is about 16 MB.

    Listening to this convinced these are two valuable market plays. I emphasize he didn’t advise these market plays, but I came up with them after listening to Roubini’s analysis.

    1) Short-term Roubini is somewhat bearish on gold. His comments convinced me I should take my profits on gold, cutting holdings down to MAX 25% of portfolio. Long-term he’s bullish on gold (one assumes this means after the recession, appox 12-18 months out.)

    This means, wait for gold to go lower (as commodities continue to fall into this recession), then buy gold at cheaper price in next eighteen months)

    2) The Bailie Mae will probably get approved. This will obviously send the stock market UP say 10%. He didn’t say specifically that. I wrote it here as my prediction/guess. Roubini said that no matter if the bail out passes or not, we are looking at a deep U-shaped recession of about eighteen months or more. I believe him on that.

    So when the bail out passes, watch the Fool’s Rally to look for the crest, and then short the stock markets. Then hold your shorts for a good twelve months as the market falls.

    BOTTOM LINE: a deep US recession lasting over twelve months is NOT yet priced into the market. You can make money on that. Additionally, there are numerous additional negative market events he’s predicting in that call that are not yet priced-in by investors.

    September 27, 2008 at 1:26 PM #276358
    barnaby33
    Participant

    At this point, the recession portion is obvious. Whats not so obvious is the commodities portion. This has actually been the only bone of contention between the inflation and deflation camp. Inflationists think the govt plan to bailout the markets will work, through monetizing. Deflationists think that the gov will try and fail. A bet on gold is a bet on the govt successfully monetizing our debts without the treasury market taking a dump. In the short term most people that I’ve read, if bearish on gold are so because good assets and bad get sold off to pay back debt.
    Josh

    September 27, 2008 at 1:26 PM #276681
    barnaby33
    Participant

    At this point, the recession portion is obvious. Whats not so obvious is the commodities portion. This has actually been the only bone of contention between the inflation and deflation camp. Inflationists think the govt plan to bailout the markets will work, through monetizing. Deflationists think that the gov will try and fail. A bet on gold is a bet on the govt successfully monetizing our debts without the treasury market taking a dump. In the short term most people that I’ve read, if bearish on gold are so because good assets and bad get sold off to pay back debt.
    Josh

    September 27, 2008 at 1:26 PM #276667
    barnaby33
    Participant

    At this point, the recession portion is obvious. Whats not so obvious is the commodities portion. This has actually been the only bone of contention between the inflation and deflation camp. Inflationists think the govt plan to bailout the markets will work, through monetizing. Deflationists think that the gov will try and fail. A bet on gold is a bet on the govt successfully monetizing our debts without the treasury market taking a dump. In the short term most people that I’ve read, if bearish on gold are so because good assets and bad get sold off to pay back debt.
    Josh

    September 27, 2008 at 1:26 PM #276630
    barnaby33
    Participant

    At this point, the recession portion is obvious. Whats not so obvious is the commodities portion. This has actually been the only bone of contention between the inflation and deflation camp. Inflationists think the govt plan to bailout the markets will work, through monetizing. Deflationists think that the gov will try and fail. A bet on gold is a bet on the govt successfully monetizing our debts without the treasury market taking a dump. In the short term most people that I’ve read, if bearish on gold are so because good assets and bad get sold off to pay back debt.
    Josh

    September 27, 2008 at 1:26 PM #276615
    barnaby33
    Participant

    At this point, the recession portion is obvious. Whats not so obvious is the commodities portion. This has actually been the only bone of contention between the inflation and deflation camp. Inflationists think the govt plan to bailout the markets will work, through monetizing. Deflationists think that the gov will try and fail. A bet on gold is a bet on the govt successfully monetizing our debts without the treasury market taking a dump. In the short term most people that I’ve read, if bearish on gold are so because good assets and bad get sold off to pay back debt.
    Josh

    September 27, 2008 at 7:35 PM #276448
    gracie
    Participant

    so…if we are going into a recession…how best to we prepare for it? I noted on other sites that people were recommending stocking up on food; do you make a major purchase…say a new dishwasher or car now…or wait.

    What are you folks doing to prepare for a bad economic time?

    September 27, 2008 at 7:35 PM #276770
    gracie
    Participant

    so…if we are going into a recession…how best to we prepare for it? I noted on other sites that people were recommending stocking up on food; do you make a major purchase…say a new dishwasher or car now…or wait.

    What are you folks doing to prepare for a bad economic time?

    September 27, 2008 at 7:35 PM #276704
    gracie
    Participant

    so…if we are going into a recession…how best to we prepare for it? I noted on other sites that people were recommending stocking up on food; do you make a major purchase…say a new dishwasher or car now…or wait.

    What are you folks doing to prepare for a bad economic time?

    September 27, 2008 at 7:35 PM #276722
    gracie
    Participant

    so…if we are going into a recession…how best to we prepare for it? I noted on other sites that people were recommending stocking up on food; do you make a major purchase…say a new dishwasher or car now…or wait.

    What are you folks doing to prepare for a bad economic time?

    September 27, 2008 at 7:35 PM #276756
    gracie
    Participant

    so…if we are going into a recession…how best to we prepare for it? I noted on other sites that people were recommending stocking up on food; do you make a major purchase…say a new dishwasher or car now…or wait.

    What are you folks doing to prepare for a bad economic time?

    September 27, 2008 at 7:48 PM #276453
    Eugene
    Participant

    [quote=gracie]so…if we are going into a recession…how best to we prepare for it? I noted on other sites that people were recommending stocking up on food; do you make a major purchase…say a new dishwasher or car now…or wait.

    What are you folks doing to prepare for a bad economic time?[/quote]

    Make sure you don’t get laid off during this recession. That you have cash reserves to pay rent/utilities/grocery bills for 6 to 12 months if necessary. Avoid luxury purchases.

    This too shall pass.

    September 27, 2008 at 7:48 PM #276775
    Eugene
    Participant

    [quote=gracie]so…if we are going into a recession…how best to we prepare for it? I noted on other sites that people were recommending stocking up on food; do you make a major purchase…say a new dishwasher or car now…or wait.

    What are you folks doing to prepare for a bad economic time?[/quote]

    Make sure you don’t get laid off during this recession. That you have cash reserves to pay rent/utilities/grocery bills for 6 to 12 months if necessary. Avoid luxury purchases.

    This too shall pass.

    September 27, 2008 at 7:48 PM #276761
    Eugene
    Participant

    [quote=gracie]so…if we are going into a recession…how best to we prepare for it? I noted on other sites that people were recommending stocking up on food; do you make a major purchase…say a new dishwasher or car now…or wait.

    What are you folks doing to prepare for a bad economic time?[/quote]

    Make sure you don’t get laid off during this recession. That you have cash reserves to pay rent/utilities/grocery bills for 6 to 12 months if necessary. Avoid luxury purchases.

    This too shall pass.

    September 27, 2008 at 7:48 PM #276709
    Eugene
    Participant

    [quote=gracie]so…if we are going into a recession…how best to we prepare for it? I noted on other sites that people were recommending stocking up on food; do you make a major purchase…say a new dishwasher or car now…or wait.

    What are you folks doing to prepare for a bad economic time?[/quote]

    Make sure you don’t get laid off during this recession. That you have cash reserves to pay rent/utilities/grocery bills for 6 to 12 months if necessary. Avoid luxury purchases.

    This too shall pass.

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