Informal Stock Market Poll – Piggington's Econo-Almanac

This topic has 80 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 16 years ago by Coronita.

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September 16, 2008 at 7:46 PM #13847

davelj
Participant

If I had told you a year ago that the following would occur:

– Bear Stearns teeters on the edge of BK; forced to merge with JP Morgan for $10/share with Fed backstop
– Fannie and Freddie placed into conservatorship by the government (equity goes to zero)
– Lehman goes BK
– AIG placed into de facto conservatorship by the government (equity goes to near zero)
– Y/Y housing prices down mid-double digits nationwide; CA, FL, AZ and other bubble markets considerably worse
– Housing inventories and foreclosures at record levels
– Fed expands lending facilities to several hundred billion, includes broker/dealers, and accepts EQUITIES as collateral
– Fed Funds rate at 2%

Where would you predict the major averages would be under such circumstances?

Me? Dow 8000, S&P 800, Nasdaq 1600

I am stunned at how the equity market is shaking off all this news (and will probably rocket to the moon tomorrow), particularly considering the conditions in the credit market. Stunned.

September 16, 2008 at 7:52 PM #271115

barnaby33
Participant

I wish I had access to my outlook email right now, its on my work machine. The email I got yesterday afternoon from our 401k fiduciary would set you straight. You see Davelj, you have a brain, most of the world does not. It has hope and a 401k. Those people literally can’t get out of the market, because the Bill Millers of the world won’t let them.

September 16, 2008 at 7:52 PM #271403

barnaby33
Participant

I wish I had access to my outlook email right now, its on my work machine. The email I got yesterday afternoon from our 401k fiduciary would set you straight. You see Davelj, you have a brain, most of the world does not. It has hope and a 401k. Those people literally can’t get out of the market, because the Bill Millers of the world won’t let them.

September 16, 2008 at 7:52 PM #271364

barnaby33
Participant

I wish I had access to my outlook email right now, its on my work machine. The email I got yesterday afternoon from our 401k fiduciary would set you straight. You see Davelj, you have a brain, most of the world does not. It has hope and a 401k. Those people literally can’t get out of the market, because the Bill Millers of the world won’t let them.

September 16, 2008 at 7:52 PM #271351

barnaby33
Participant

I wish I had access to my outlook email right now, its on my work machine. The email I got yesterday afternoon from our 401k fiduciary would set you straight. You see Davelj, you have a brain, most of the world does not. It has hope and a 401k. Those people literally can’t get out of the market, because the Bill Millers of the world won’t let them.

September 16, 2008 at 7:52 PM #271427

barnaby33
Participant

I wish I had access to my outlook email right now, its on my work machine. The email I got yesterday afternoon from our 401k fiduciary would set you straight. You see Davelj, you have a brain, most of the world does not. It has hope and a 401k. Those people literally can’t get out of the market, because the Bill Millers of the world won’t let them.

September 16, 2008 at 8:10 PM #271407

peterb
Participant

I had three houses I sold in early 2007 because I had been to a seminar in late 2005 where the guy made an excellent case for the market crashing. I checked his data and it was happening just the way he said it would. So I got out as I could see the market stalling, big time. But his analysis was that in a good case scenario the RE market in CA would correct about 35% in the aggregate. It would take about 4 years total. He did say in a worst case scenario we’d have financial melt-down and market chaos. I figured the worse case scenario was real tin-foil-hat stuff as I’d heard it all before and it never really happend. Well, guess what, it looks shockingly real this time. And some very sharp guys are calling it now.
I still remember thinking that $1000 for the seminar seemed expensive, but I thought he was a smart guy and worth listening to. BEST $1000 I EVER SPENT!! And I learned from him and a few other sharp guys that spending a few hundred on a seminar or newsletter is by far the absolutely cheapest way you’ll ever learn anything in this world. Bubblevision is udder Bull nonsense and actually misleading.
I still hope these guys are not correct, but it sure looks like it. Hard core deflation is no one’s friend. It’ll really suck for us all if it keeps gaining momentum.

September 16, 2008 at 8:10 PM #271432

peterb
Participant

I had three houses I sold in early 2007 because I had been to a seminar in late 2005 where the guy made an excellent case for the market crashing. I checked his data and it was happening just the way he said it would. So I got out as I could see the market stalling, big time. But his analysis was that in a good case scenario the RE market in CA would correct about 35% in the aggregate. It would take about 4 years total. He did say in a worst case scenario we’d have financial melt-down and market chaos. I figured the worse case scenario was real tin-foil-hat stuff as I’d heard it all before and it never really happend. Well, guess what, it looks shockingly real this time. And some very sharp guys are calling it now.
I still remember thinking that $1000 for the seminar seemed expensive, but I thought he was a smart guy and worth listening to. BEST $1000 I EVER SPENT!! And I learned from him and a few other sharp guys that spending a few hundred on a seminar or newsletter is by far the absolutely cheapest way you’ll ever learn anything in this world. Bubblevision is udder Bull nonsense and actually misleading.
I still hope these guys are not correct, but it sure looks like it. Hard core deflation is no one’s friend. It’ll really suck for us all if it keeps gaining momentum.

September 16, 2008 at 8:10 PM #271368

peterb
Participant

I had three houses I sold in early 2007 because I had been to a seminar in late 2005 where the guy made an excellent case for the market crashing. I checked his data and it was happening just the way he said it would. So I got out as I could see the market stalling, big time. But his analysis was that in a good case scenario the RE market in CA would correct about 35% in the aggregate. It would take about 4 years total. He did say in a worst case scenario we’d have financial melt-down and market chaos. I figured the worse case scenario was real tin-foil-hat stuff as I’d heard it all before and it never really happend. Well, guess what, it looks shockingly real this time. And some very sharp guys are calling it now.
I still remember thinking that $1000 for the seminar seemed expensive, but I thought he was a smart guy and worth listening to. BEST $1000 I EVER SPENT!! And I learned from him and a few other sharp guys that spending a few hundred on a seminar or newsletter is by far the absolutely cheapest way you’ll ever learn anything in this world. Bubblevision is udder Bull nonsense and actually misleading.
I still hope these guys are not correct, but it sure looks like it. Hard core deflation is no one’s friend. It’ll really suck for us all if it keeps gaining momentum.

September 16, 2008 at 8:10 PM #271356

peterb
Participant

I had three houses I sold in early 2007 because I had been to a seminar in late 2005 where the guy made an excellent case for the market crashing. I checked his data and it was happening just the way he said it would. So I got out as I could see the market stalling, big time. But his analysis was that in a good case scenario the RE market in CA would correct about 35% in the aggregate. It would take about 4 years total. He did say in a worst case scenario we’d have financial melt-down and market chaos. I figured the worse case scenario was real tin-foil-hat stuff as I’d heard it all before and it never really happend. Well, guess what, it looks shockingly real this time. And some very sharp guys are calling it now.
I still remember thinking that $1000 for the seminar seemed expensive, but I thought he was a smart guy and worth listening to. BEST $1000 I EVER SPENT!! And I learned from him and a few other sharp guys that spending a few hundred on a seminar or newsletter is by far the absolutely cheapest way you’ll ever learn anything in this world. Bubblevision is udder Bull nonsense and actually misleading.
I still hope these guys are not correct, but it sure looks like it. Hard core deflation is no one’s friend. It’ll really suck for us all if it keeps gaining momentum.

September 16, 2008 at 8:10 PM #271120

peterb
Participant

I had three houses I sold in early 2007 because I had been to a seminar in late 2005 where the guy made an excellent case for the market crashing. I checked his data and it was happening just the way he said it would. So I got out as I could see the market stalling, big time. But his analysis was that in a good case scenario the RE market in CA would correct about 35% in the aggregate. It would take about 4 years total. He did say in a worst case scenario we’d have financial melt-down and market chaos. I figured the worse case scenario was real tin-foil-hat stuff as I’d heard it all before and it never really happend. Well, guess what, it looks shockingly real this time. And some very sharp guys are calling it now.
I still remember thinking that $1000 for the seminar seemed expensive, but I thought he was a smart guy and worth listening to. BEST $1000 I EVER SPENT!! And I learned from him and a few other sharp guys that spending a few hundred on a seminar or newsletter is by far the absolutely cheapest way you’ll ever learn anything in this world. Bubblevision is udder Bull nonsense and actually misleading.
I still hope these guys are not correct, but it sure looks like it. Hard core deflation is no one’s friend. It’ll really suck for us all if it keeps gaining momentum.

September 16, 2008 at 8:12 PM #271437

davelj
Participant

[quote=barnaby33]I wish I had access to my outlook email right now, its on my work machine. The email I got yesterday afternoon from our 401k fiduciary would set you straight. You see Davelj, you have a brain, most of the world does not. It has hope and a 401k. Those people literally can’t get out of the market, because the Bill Millers of the world won’t let them. [/quote]

I suppose you’re right. As I occasionally remind folks, “Hope is not an investment strategy.”

And speaking of Bill Miller, I noticed recently that his super-magical mutual fund, which was near the top of all equity mutual funds in performance for the previous 3,5, and 10 years as of year-end 2006… now is near the bottom for all three periods. Oh how the mighty have fallen. Actually there have been rumors that he’ll be canned shortly. God I hope so. One more bull market relic taken out to pasture.

September 16, 2008 at 8:12 PM #271374

davelj
Participant

[quote=barnaby33]I wish I had access to my outlook email right now, its on my work machine. The email I got yesterday afternoon from our 401k fiduciary would set you straight. You see Davelj, you have a brain, most of the world does not. It has hope and a 401k. Those people literally can’t get out of the market, because the Bill Millers of the world won’t let them. [/quote]

I suppose you’re right. As I occasionally remind folks, “Hope is not an investment strategy.”

And speaking of Bill Miller, I noticed recently that his super-magical mutual fund, which was near the top of all equity mutual funds in performance for the previous 3,5, and 10 years as of year-end 2006… now is near the bottom for all three periods. Oh how the mighty have fallen. Actually there have been rumors that he’ll be canned shortly. God I hope so. One more bull market relic taken out to pasture.

September 16, 2008 at 8:12 PM #271412

davelj
Participant

[quote=barnaby33]I wish I had access to my outlook email right now, its on my work machine. The email I got yesterday afternoon from our 401k fiduciary would set you straight. You see Davelj, you have a brain, most of the world does not. It has hope and a 401k. Those people literally can’t get out of the market, because the Bill Millers of the world won’t let them. [/quote]

I suppose you’re right. As I occasionally remind folks, “Hope is not an investment strategy.”

And speaking of Bill Miller, I noticed recently that his super-magical mutual fund, which was near the top of all equity mutual funds in performance for the previous 3,5, and 10 years as of year-end 2006… now is near the bottom for all three periods. Oh how the mighty have fallen. Actually there have been rumors that he’ll be canned shortly. God I hope so. One more bull market relic taken out to pasture.

September 16, 2008 at 8:12 PM #271361

davelj
Participant

[quote=barnaby33]I wish I had access to my outlook email right now, its on my work machine. The email I got yesterday afternoon from our 401k fiduciary would set you straight. You see Davelj, you have a brain, most of the world does not. It has hope and a 401k. Those people literally can’t get out of the market, because the Bill Millers of the world won’t let them. [/quote]

I suppose you’re right. As I occasionally remind folks, “Hope is not an investment strategy.”

And speaking of Bill Miller, I noticed recently that his super-magical mutual fund, which was near the top of all equity mutual funds in performance for the previous 3,5, and 10 years as of year-end 2006… now is near the bottom for all three periods. Oh how the mighty have fallen. Actually there have been rumors that he’ll be canned shortly. God I hope so. One more bull market relic taken out to pasture.
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