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U.S. Payrolls Fell 84,000; Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.1% (Update3)

By Shobhana Chandra
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Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. lost more jobs than forecast in August and the unemployment rate climbed to a five- year high, heightening the risk that the economic slowdown will worsen.

Payrolls fell by 84,000 in August, and revisions added another 58,000 to job losses for the prior two months, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate jumped to 6.1 percent, matching the level of September 2003, from 5.7 percent the prior month.

Workforce reductions at companies from UAL Corp. to Gannett Co. are adding to the woes of Americans hurt by lower home values, scarcer credit and higher prices. The report may fuel concern that consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, will decline and bring the expansion to a halt. Stock-index futures dropped, Treasury notes climbed and the dollar pared gains.

“It certainly increases the probability that we really are in a recession,” William Poole, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “It is a weak number, including the revisions.”

Payrolls were forecast to drop 75,000 after a previously reported 51,000 decline in July, according to the median estimate of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from declines of 40,000 to 150,000. The jobless rate was projected to remain at 5.7 percent.

Factory payrolls dropped 61,000 after decreasing 38,000 in July. Economists had forecast a drop of 35,000. The decline included a loss of 39,000 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts industries.

Factory Workforce

Today’s report also showed the effects of the housing slump and the credit crisis that it triggered. Payrolls at builders fell 8,000 after decreasing 20,000. Financial firms trimmed payrolls by 3,000 for a second consecutive month.

Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 27,000 workers after cutting 12,000 in July. Retail payrolls fell by 19,900 after a drop of 18,100.

“We’re losing jobs in all kinds of industries now,” Roger Kubarych, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Global Research in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. “This is the clearest recessionary signal we’ve seen.”

Government payrolls increased by 17,000 after rising 6,000. That meant private payrolls fell by 101,000 in August.

Today’s report brings the total decline in payrolls so far this year to 605,000. The economy created 1.1 million jobs in 2007.

Recession Indicators

Employment is among the indicators tracked by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of U.S. economic cycles, in calling a recession. The others are sales, incomes, production and gross domestic product.

The group defines a recession as a “significant” decrease in activity over a sustained period of time, and usually takes six to 18 months to make a determination.

Job losses are one reason economic growth will soften after a second-quarter rate of 3.3 percent. The economy may expand at an average 0.7 percent annual pace from July through December, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, in July posted the biggest drop in four years after inflation.

“The pace of economic activity has been slow in most districts,” the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book report this week. There’s “a general pullback in hiring.”

`Close to Stagnating’

The economy “is close to stagnating,” Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. In part because of continued gains in worker productivity, employers will keep cutting jobs, sending the U.S. unemployment rate to 6.75 percent next year, he said.

Goldman economists projected a 100,000 decline in payrolls for August.

The average work week remained at 33.7 hours. Average weekly hours worked by production workers fell to 40.9 hours from 41 hours, while overtime decreased to 3.7 hours from 3.8 hours.

Workers’ average hourly wages rose 7 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $18.14 from the prior month. Hourly earnings were 3.6 percent higher than August 2007. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.3 percent increase from July and a 3.4 percent gain for the 12-month period. Average weekly earnings increased to $611.32 from $608.96.