Maybe in 20 years. Way too many empty houses in that area.

Maybe in 20 years. Way too many empty houses in that area.

To confirm an earlier observation by TG, Hemingway (Red Hawk, but close to Wolf Creek) does appear to be shutdown.

There is no longer a sales office at that location – models are up for sale.

To confirm an earlier observation by TG, Hemingway (Red Hawk, but close to Wolf Creek) does appear to be shutdown.

There is no longer a sales office at that location – models are up for sale.

To confirm an earlier observation by TG, Hemingway (Red Hawk, but close to Wolf Creek) does appear to be shutdown.

There is no longer a sales office at that location – models are up for sale.

It is close to 75% done but I don’t think it will make it because building costs are exceeding values right now, we are dangerously close to entering the overcorrection phase (which may last a few years) and the repos are priced well below new. Every owner is underwater, even if you put 50% down you are without equity in wolf. Another thing that hurts it is the csa fee (similar to mello roos) is horrible, it is over 3k a year per house not based on value. When they were 600k, the tax rate was 1.6 but now that almost every house is worth about 300k, the taxes are over 2% plus hoa. Wolf and Morgan are about a tie and buying a 300k house in either with 20% down will cost about 1600 a month but close to $750 in taxes and hoa per month, that just kills their marketability when the other tracts can offer the same fundamentals at $400 a month less.

Stan pac has three tracts left, woodside has four and lennar has one, all are close to 50% built but construction is almost stopped and they all lose their ability to offer downpayment assistance in 3 weeks. It’s a sucker play to buy new in wolf, a repo in there can be had for 50-100k less than new and the repos have started to increase while the buyers have started to fade. The tent folding will hurt the existing owners even more because of the uncertainty of what will done later to fill it in and the years of vacant lots growing weeds. I imagine the hoa fees will rise if it doesn’t build out. At this point, a morgan or redhawk view home, away from the casino is cheaper than a flatland wolf creek home that is next to it, that inversion isn’t logical and wont be supported. Every builder offering can be beat by going for a short or a repo and you can pay less to get more in a better location, that will be the death of wolf unless they slash prices by 20-30% and I don’t think they can afford to do it, there isn’t enough margin to cut.

On a side note, I’ve made two written offers this month (lowballs but not too low, just 10% under ask), a short in morgan and a bank owned in wolf, at $90 a square each, didn’t get either and I must say I am relieved, it is going to get worse.

It is close to 75% done but I don’t think it will make it because building costs are exceeding values right now, we are dangerously close to entering the overcorrection phase (which may last a few years) and the repos are priced well below new. Every owner is underwater, even if you put 50% down you are without equity in wolf. Another thing that hurts it is the csa fee (similar to mello roos) is horrible, it is over 3k a year per house not based on value. When they were 600k, the tax rate was 1.6 but now that almost every house is worth about 300k, the taxes are over 2% plus hoa. Wolf and Morgan are about a tie and buying a 300k house in either with 20% down will cost about 1600 a month but close to $750 in taxes and hoa per month, that just kills their marketability when the other tracts can offer the same fundamentals at $400 a month less.

Stan pac has three tracts left, woodside has four and lennar has one, all are close to 50% built but construction is almost stopped and they all lose their ability to offer downpayment assistance in 3 weeks. It’s a sucker play to buy new in wolf, a repo in there can be had for 50-100k less than new and the repos have started to increase while the buyers have started to fade. The tent folding will hurt the existing owners even more because of the uncertainty of what will done later to fill it in and the years of vacant lots growing weeds. I imagine the hoa fees will rise if it doesn’t build out. At this point, a morgan or redhawk view home, away from the casino is cheaper than a flatland wolf creek home that is next to it, that inversion isn’t logical and wont be supported. Every builder offering can be beat by going for a short or a repo and you can pay less to get more in a better location, that will be the death of wolf unless they slash prices by 20-30% and I don’t think they can afford to do it, there isn’t enough margin to cut.

On a side note, I’ve made two written offers this month (lowballs but not too low, just 10% under ask), a short in morgan and a bank owned in wolf, at $90 a square each, didn’t get either and I must say I am relieved, it is going to get worse.