Well, I tossed in the towel, deciding I don’t know where markets are headed during the next few weeks ahead of the expected rate drop.

So sold the long position I picked up yesterday in the ETF “SSO”

I have dumped my gold yesterday and today, seeing this pullback continuing in gold

I’m now entirely in cash, except for that short position against the oil sector I’m holding with the ETF “DUG.” That strategy is now moving very fast in my favor with the oil price having come down off the $100 mark, and inventories are rising. Several weeks ago, I was down -16% on that bet, but that negative has now turned slightly positive.

So the only SHORT-TERM bet I’m confident on is shorting oil. Demand is already dropping as this recession rolls in like a dark cloud. Yet I emphasize that long-term I see oil headed UP.

I’m in a wait-and-see holding pattern regards the indices, because my instincts are for a short-term rise ~5% ahead of the fed funds rate cut, but I’m only guessing not willing (anymore) to bet my money on it. However, as soon as I see these indexes pop up ~5% then I’ll buy short positions again on the indexes. I’m expecting that this deep recession will take the markets down eventually this year to declines another 20% lower than present values!

Summary for 2008: I made money on gold, shorting the S&P 500, puts on the NASDAQ. I’m now flat on the bet against oil. Since late Dec 2007 to now, net I’m up 20% over my portfolio. I can’t complain about that.