Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › S&P 500 Presidential Year Cycle for June-Oct
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equalizer.
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June 2, 2008 at 7:41 PM #12930June 2, 2008 at 8:37 PM #215766
LA_Renter
ParticipantDid any of those elections occur in the throws of the worst housing bust in this country’s history resulting in a debilitating credit crunch and just for good measure $130 oil??
June 2, 2008 at 8:37 PM #215927ParticipantDid any of those elections occur in the throws of the worst housing bust in this country’s history resulting in a debilitating credit crunch and just for good measure $130 oil??
June 2, 2008 at 8:37 PM #215848ParticipantDid any of those elections occur in the throws of the worst housing bust in this country’s history resulting in a debilitating credit crunch and just for good measure $130 oil??
June 2, 2008 at 8:37 PM #215874ParticipantDid any of those elections occur in the throws of the worst housing bust in this country’s history resulting in a debilitating credit crunch and just for good measure $130 oil??
June 2, 2008 at 8:37 PM #215900ParticipantDid any of those elections occur in the throws of the worst housing bust in this country’s history resulting in a debilitating credit crunch and just for good measure $130 oil??
June 2, 2008 at 8:58 PM #215947j
ParticipantAnd home prices never go down.
There is no major correlation between a Presidential election year and SP500 average. The SP500 goes up most of the time, or I would not invest in it. That being said in 50 years there are only 12 Presidential elections, so it’s not like saying the hottest in 50 years. It’s more like saying the largest egg in a dozen.
June 2, 2008 at 8:58 PM #215921ParticipantAnd home prices never go down.
There is no major correlation between a Presidential election year and SP500 average. The SP500 goes up most of the time, or I would not invest in it. That being said in 50 years there are only 12 Presidential elections, so it’s not like saying the hottest in 50 years. It’s more like saying the largest egg in a dozen.
June 2, 2008 at 8:58 PM #215893ParticipantAnd home prices never go down.
There is no major correlation between a Presidential election year and SP500 average. The SP500 goes up most of the time, or I would not invest in it. That being said in 50 years there are only 12 Presidential elections, so it’s not like saying the hottest in 50 years. It’s more like saying the largest egg in a dozen.
June 2, 2008 at 8:58 PM #215869ParticipantAnd home prices never go down.
There is no major correlation between a Presidential election year and SP500 average. The SP500 goes up most of the time, or I would not invest in it. That being said in 50 years there are only 12 Presidential elections, so it’s not like saying the hottest in 50 years. It’s more like saying the largest egg in a dozen.
June 2, 2008 at 8:58 PM #215786ParticipantAnd home prices never go down.
There is no major correlation between a Presidential election year and SP500 average. The SP500 goes up most of the time, or I would not invest in it. That being said in 50 years there are only 12 Presidential elections, so it’s not like saying the hottest in 50 years. It’s more like saying the largest egg in a dozen.
June 2, 2008 at 9:49 PM #215920equalizer
Participant“The theory has been described in interesting terms like “statistical fluke,” and “an accident of history.” Unfortunately, there are insufficient observations, given only 43 presidents in our country’s history, to scientifically validate the thesis and satisfy naysayers. Nonetheless, the theory has often been surprisingly accurate, although less so in more recent years.”
The trend I posted is just one factor to analyze along with interest rates, P/E ratios, technical indicators including Dow Theory, etc. Richard Russell the permabear is bullish right now. Bob Brinker, whose newsletter is highly rated over 15 years by Hulbert Financial Digest is neutral to bullish now. P/E ratios are moderate. Overall sentiment is negative. The trend is also positive until Oct. The trend may be a fluke, but I wouldn’t go 100% neg now. My point is that it is not time to panic sell. Be defensive, but not all short.
Here’s article that discusses June to Oct. trends.
http://www.thestockadvisors.com/content/view/2123/9/June 2, 2008 at 9:49 PM #215811Participant“The theory has been described in interesting terms like “statistical fluke,” and “an accident of history.” Unfortunately, there are insufficient observations, given only 43 presidents in our country’s history, to scientifically validate the thesis and satisfy naysayers. Nonetheless, the theory has often been surprisingly accurate, although less so in more recent years.”
The trend I posted is just one factor to analyze along with interest rates, P/E ratios, technical indicators including Dow Theory, etc. Richard Russell the permabear is bullish right now. Bob Brinker, whose newsletter is highly rated over 15 years by Hulbert Financial Digest is neutral to bullish now. P/E ratios are moderate. Overall sentiment is negative. The trend is also positive until Oct. The trend may be a fluke, but I wouldn’t go 100% neg now. My point is that it is not time to panic sell. Be defensive, but not all short.
Here’s article that discusses June to Oct. trends.
http://www.thestockadvisors.com/content/view/2123/9/June 2, 2008 at 9:49 PM #215946Participant“The theory has been described in interesting terms like “statistical fluke,” and “an accident of history.” Unfortunately, there are insufficient observations, given only 43 presidents in our country’s history, to scientifically validate the thesis and satisfy naysayers. Nonetheless, the theory has often been surprisingly accurate, although less so in more recent years.”
The trend I posted is just one factor to analyze along with interest rates, P/E ratios, technical indicators including Dow Theory, etc. Richard Russell the permabear is bullish right now. Bob Brinker, whose newsletter is highly rated over 15 years by Hulbert Financial Digest is neutral to bullish now. P/E ratios are moderate. Overall sentiment is negative. The trend is also positive until Oct. The trend may be a fluke, but I wouldn’t go 100% neg now. My point is that it is not time to panic sell. Be defensive, but not all short.
Here’s article that discusses June to Oct. trends.
http://www.thestockadvisors.com/content/view/2123/9/June 2, 2008 at 9:49 PM #215973Participant“The theory has been described in interesting terms like “statistical fluke,” and “an accident of history.” Unfortunately, there are insufficient observations, given only 43 presidents in our country’s history, to scientifically validate the thesis and satisfy naysayers. Nonetheless, the theory has often been surprisingly accurate, although less so in more recent years.”
The trend I posted is just one factor to analyze along with interest rates, P/E ratios, technical indicators including Dow Theory, etc. Richard Russell the permabear is bullish right now. Bob Brinker, whose newsletter is highly rated over 15 years by Hulbert Financial Digest is neutral to bullish now. P/E ratios are moderate. Overall sentiment is negative. The trend is also positive until Oct. The trend may be a fluke, but I wouldn’t go 100% neg now. My point is that it is not time to panic sell. Be defensive, but not all short.
Here’s article that discusses June to Oct. trends.
http://www.thestockadvisors.com/content/view/2123/9/ -
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