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  • June 1, 2008 at 9:59 AM #12913
    Disgruntled Patriot
    Participant

    Pigs,

    As a regular visitor to the sight, I greatly enjoy perusing the assertions and musings of all you like-minded (read shrewd and intelligent) sirens of the popping bubble. The majority of your predictions concerning the current purge following the manic binge of ’05/’06 have been largely fulfilled and if anything conservative. The regulars here have provided insightful perspective and relevant data, often with great wit, well beyond anything found in the MSM.

    I appropriately value your opinions and the forum has certainly had an influence. We have delayed buying a home for our family more than two years. We began making very lowball offers on REO’s a couple months back (25-30% off) and recently had an accepted offer in the right school district. The contract is at that magic (though ever changing) price point where all expenses are covered by the going rental rate, even at 100% financing.

    And so, with measured apprehension I ask for your feedback on our intention to close on this home located in an SF bedroom community. I know it’s not SD, but the market is similar and you may perhaps be interested in the ratios and percentages. How bad/good did we do? Excluding an economic meltdown, how much lower do you think the house could go?

    Address XYZ Dr, Fairfield/Vacaville, CA 956XX
    3550 sqft
    0.25 acres
    2 Story
    Built in 2005
    Bedrooms 5
    Full Baths 4
    Partial Baths 1

    Top school district in Solano County (API). No mello-roos. No rear neighbors, one side neighbor. 2 master suites (one each level), guest suite, large game room, family room, great room. Slate tile floors shower and tub in master bath, fire place, kitchen island, concrete patio, granite counters, built in appliances, large closets, curved stairs with rod iron posts, stone tile floors in kitchen and hallway, stucco exterior, tile roof, 2 car garage.

    [img_assist|nid=7760|title=1|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=350][img_assist|nid=7761|title=2|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=392]

    This Home
    Last sale (100% no-doc ARM) in 2006: $870,000
    Bank owned (first lien) in 2007: $640,000
    Recent asking price: $590,000
    Accepted offer: $470,000
    46% reduction in price from peak market.

    This Home Zip code
    Median in 2006: $470,000
    Current median: $320,000
    32% reduction in price from peak market.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:13 AM #214905
    temeculaguy
    Participant

    While there will always be someone who can get a better deal can you answer the following questions.

    1. Are you putting money down?
    2. Is the rate fixed?
    3. Can you afford it without strecthing or sacrificing?
    4. Are you going to stay?

    Answer yes to those four questions and it really doesn’t matter since you got it for more than 40% off peak. You will have the lowest mortgage of any of your neighbors, you didn’t pay a ridiculous price and you dont NEED IT TO GO UP IN PRICE. So if it doesn’t, who cares, it’s a freakin house and not an investment. When the payment gets near the rental cost, all you have done is sign a long term lease, and nobody would fault you for that.

    I think you could have carved another 50K off after September but if you were already happy with the 430k you saved by waiting this long and can afford it easliy, who gives a crap, enjoy it.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:13 AM #214982
    temeculaguy
    Participant

    While there will always be someone who can get a better deal can you answer the following questions.

    1. Are you putting money down?
    2. Is the rate fixed?
    3. Can you afford it without strecthing or sacrificing?
    4. Are you going to stay?

    Answer yes to those four questions and it really doesn’t matter since you got it for more than 40% off peak. You will have the lowest mortgage of any of your neighbors, you didn’t pay a ridiculous price and you dont NEED IT TO GO UP IN PRICE. So if it doesn’t, who cares, it’s a freakin house and not an investment. When the payment gets near the rental cost, all you have done is sign a long term lease, and nobody would fault you for that.

    I think you could have carved another 50K off after September but if you were already happy with the 430k you saved by waiting this long and can afford it easliy, who gives a crap, enjoy it.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:13 AM #215010
    temeculaguy
    Participant

    While there will always be someone who can get a better deal can you answer the following questions.

    1. Are you putting money down?
    2. Is the rate fixed?
    3. Can you afford it without strecthing or sacrificing?
    4. Are you going to stay?

    Answer yes to those four questions and it really doesn’t matter since you got it for more than 40% off peak. You will have the lowest mortgage of any of your neighbors, you didn’t pay a ridiculous price and you dont NEED IT TO GO UP IN PRICE. So if it doesn’t, who cares, it’s a freakin house and not an investment. When the payment gets near the rental cost, all you have done is sign a long term lease, and nobody would fault you for that.

    I think you could have carved another 50K off after September but if you were already happy with the 430k you saved by waiting this long and can afford it easliy, who gives a crap, enjoy it.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:13 AM #215034
    temeculaguy
    Participant

    While there will always be someone who can get a better deal can you answer the following questions.

    1. Are you putting money down?
    2. Is the rate fixed?
    3. Can you afford it without strecthing or sacrificing?
    4. Are you going to stay?

    Answer yes to those four questions and it really doesn’t matter since you got it for more than 40% off peak. You will have the lowest mortgage of any of your neighbors, you didn’t pay a ridiculous price and you dont NEED IT TO GO UP IN PRICE. So if it doesn’t, who cares, it’s a freakin house and not an investment. When the payment gets near the rental cost, all you have done is sign a long term lease, and nobody would fault you for that.

    I think you could have carved another 50K off after September but if you were already happy with the 430k you saved by waiting this long and can afford it easliy, who gives a crap, enjoy it.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:13 AM #215062
    temeculaguy
    Participant

    While there will always be someone who can get a better deal can you answer the following questions.

    1. Are you putting money down?
    2. Is the rate fixed?
    3. Can you afford it without strecthing or sacrificing?
    4. Are you going to stay?

    Answer yes to those four questions and it really doesn’t matter since you got it for more than 40% off peak. You will have the lowest mortgage of any of your neighbors, you didn’t pay a ridiculous price and you dont NEED IT TO GO UP IN PRICE. So if it doesn’t, who cares, it’s a freakin house and not an investment. When the payment gets near the rental cost, all you have done is sign a long term lease, and nobody would fault you for that.

    I think you could have carved another 50K off after September but if you were already happy with the 430k you saved by waiting this long and can afford it easliy, who gives a crap, enjoy it.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:20 AM #214910
    Navydoc
    Participant

    I would totally go for it. There is no way you could rent this place for what a 30 year fixed mortgage would be with 20% down, unless rents in that area are completely different than here.

    Real estate won’t always be a bad deal, and it seems like you have found one that works out. I hope I’m as lucky next year. Good luck.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:20 AM #214987
    Navydoc
    Participant

    I would totally go for it. There is no way you could rent this place for what a 30 year fixed mortgage would be with 20% down, unless rents in that area are completely different than here.

    Real estate won’t always be a bad deal, and it seems like you have found one that works out. I hope I’m as lucky next year. Good luck.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:20 AM #215014
    Navydoc
    Participant

    I would totally go for it. There is no way you could rent this place for what a 30 year fixed mortgage would be with 20% down, unless rents in that area are completely different than here.

    Real estate won’t always be a bad deal, and it seems like you have found one that works out. I hope I’m as lucky next year. Good luck.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:20 AM #215039
    Navydoc
    Participant

    I would totally go for it. There is no way you could rent this place for what a 30 year fixed mortgage would be with 20% down, unless rents in that area are completely different than here.

    Real estate won’t always be a bad deal, and it seems like you have found one that works out. I hope I’m as lucky next year. Good luck.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:20 AM #215067
    Navydoc
    Participant

    I would totally go for it. There is no way you could rent this place for what a 30 year fixed mortgage would be with 20% down, unless rents in that area are completely different than here.

    Real estate won’t always be a bad deal, and it seems like you have found one that works out. I hope I’m as lucky next year. Good luck.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:23 AM #214915
    meadandale
    Participant

    Almost $500k for a house (albeit a large one) in vacaville still seems quite high. This house looks like it is on an end lot near the road as well which reduces it’s appeal (to me).

    But, if YOU like it, are not in a toxic loan and can afford the payments, go for it. However, you need to be psychologically prepared to be paying on a house that is worth less than you owe for it cause that could happen quickly.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:23 AM #214991
    meadandale
    Participant

    Almost $500k for a house (albeit a large one) in vacaville still seems quite high. This house looks like it is on an end lot near the road as well which reduces it’s appeal (to me).

    But, if YOU like it, are not in a toxic loan and can afford the payments, go for it. However, you need to be psychologically prepared to be paying on a house that is worth less than you owe for it cause that could happen quickly.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:23 AM #215019
    meadandale
    Participant

    Almost $500k for a house (albeit a large one) in vacaville still seems quite high. This house looks like it is on an end lot near the road as well which reduces it’s appeal (to me).

    But, if YOU like it, are not in a toxic loan and can afford the payments, go for it. However, you need to be psychologically prepared to be paying on a house that is worth less than you owe for it cause that could happen quickly.

    June 1, 2008 at 10:23 AM #215044
    meadandale
    Participant

    Almost $500k for a house (albeit a large one) in vacaville still seems quite high. This house looks like it is on an end lot near the road as well which reduces it’s appeal (to me).

    But, if YOU like it, are not in a toxic loan and can afford the payments, go for it. However, you need to be psychologically prepared to be paying on a house that is worth less than you owe for it cause that could happen quickly.

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