I would agree with both TG and Paramount that another 10-20% drop is likely in 2008. The rate of decline is accelerating at this point. What I would like to add is a warning not to be too excited when you see large price drops. Two or three hundred thousand dollar drops are becoming common place and don’t necessarily mean you would be getting the best deal. Heres a listing for a house that’s listed at 325,000 which is 345,000 off its purchase price in of 670,000 in 2006. http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1354595
About the house in Crowne Hill, I had to chuckle when you mentioned that the owner had some “wiggle room”. When the house is a short sale the bank would be making the decisions, chances are the owner doesn’t even have the banks OK for the 479,000.
One last thought, recently I’ve been seeing owners bouncing prices up and down to try and create the perception of value. Its important to review the listing history. If you don’t have access to the MLS you can still see it by getting a Zip Realty account. Here an example. There is a home in Temecula (37909 Pratt Rd) that recently was reduced from 1,199,500 to 788,900. Wow, a 400k drop must be a good deal right? Not so fast, heres the whole story
On Market: 262 days
Price Reduced: 05/01/07 — $989,000 to $969,000
Price Reduced: 05/04/07 — $969,000 to $949,000
Price Increased: 05/05/07 — $949,000 to $959,000
Price Reduced: 05/07/07 — $959,000 to $949,000
Price Reduced: 05/20/07 — $949,000 to $939,000
Price Reduced: 05/22/07 — $939,000 to $929,000
Price Reduced: 06/03/07 — $929,000 to $928,500
Price Reduced: 06/05/07 — $928,500 to $919,000
Price Reduced: 06/07/07 — $919,000 to $899,000
Price Increased: 06/09/07 — $899,000 to $919,000
Price Reduced: 06/12/07 — $919,000 to $909,000
Price Reduced: 06/14/07 — $909,000 to $899,000
Price Reduced: 06/19/07 — $899,000 to $898,900
Price Reduced: 06/21/07 — $898,900 to $885,000
Price Reduced: 06/24/07 — $885,000 to $884,900
Price Reduced: 06/25/07 — $884,900 to $878,900
Price Reduced: 06/28/07 — $878,900 to $868,900
Price Increased: 07/07/07 — $868,900 to $878,900
Price Reduced: 07/10/07 — $878,900 to $877,900
Price Reduced: 07/11/07 — $877,900 to $864,900
Price Reduced: 07/12/07 — $864,900 to $858,900
Price Reduced: 07/23/07 — $858,900 to $848,900
Price Reduced: 08/01/07 — $848,900 to $844,900
Price Increased: 08/02/07 — $844,900 to $854,900
Price Reduced: 08/07/07 — $854,900 to $839,000
Price Reduced: 08/09/07 — $839,000 to $838,900
Price Reduced: 08/13/07 — $838,900 to $828,900
Price Increased: 08/14/07 — $828,900 to $832,900
Price Reduced: 08/16/07 — $832,900 to $829,000
Price Reduced: 08/16/07 — $829,000 to $824,900
Price Reduced: 08/21/07 — $824,900 to $819,900
Price Reduced: 08/29/07 — $819,900 to $798,900
Price Reduced: 09/05/07 — $798,900 to $795,900
Price Reduced: 09/07/07 — $795,900 to $787,900
Price Increased: 09/10/07 — $787,900 to $829,000
Price Reduced: 10/01/07 — $829,000 to $799,000
Price Increased: 10/05/07 — $799,000 to $849,000
Price Reduced: 10/09/07 — $849,000 to $819,000
Price Reduced: 10/15/07 — $819,000 to $818,900
Price Increased: 10/16/07 — $818,900 to $848,900
Price Reduced: 10/18/07 — $848,900 to $769,000
Price Increased: 10/23/07 — $769,000 to $818,900
Price Reduced: 11/09/07 — $818,900 to $784,900
Price Increased: 11/28/07 — $784,900 to $1,199,500
Price Reduced: 12/05/07 — $1,199,500 to $788,900
Price Reduced: 12/26/07 — $788,900 to $787,900
