can you add graphs that chart the rate of change of the particular areas?
any specific areas you want?
also, (maybe you did this already? or case-shiller did?) apply filters that weed out 95, 90, and 75 percentile data?
What do you mean?
Homes like mine were around 500K in late 2000. They hit a peak of around 950K. Realistically, it is probably somewhere between 825 and 850K today which puts it 70% above its 2000 price and down around 13% from the peak
My model says that a house worth 500K in late 2000 hit a peak of around 1M in 2005-2006 and it’s still worth around 950K. So the issue is really that your 13% decline from the peak is not reflected in statistical data for the area.
It’s not reflected because of transactions like these
Maybe your specific neighborhood is different, but it seems that some houses in 92024 and 92009 do sell for 2005 prices and above.
There is just too much noise in the data. I dont trust any data points.
Every single data point is suspicious in the same way. If you have lots of points, underlying trends will start to show up behind the noise.
In the chart Normal Heights is lumped with Mission Valley. These two zips have very little in common
Good observation. I’m actually aware of that. I was trying to cover all zip codes of Greater San Diego. For 92108 I only had a total of 11 resale pairs (it’s mostly a condo area) and it didn’t naturally fit with any of its neighbors. Coronado is in a similar situation. It’s different from OB and Point Loma, and it’s too small to estimate its rate of decline with reasonable precision.
Most areas in the chart have at least 40-50 resale pairs in each half-year period, enough to get the rate of decline down to within a few per cent.
