Temecula has no hope yet – Piggington's Econo-Almanac

This topic has 50 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 7 months ago by jimmyle.

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April 11, 2008 at 4:10 AM #12402

SDHousehunter
Participant

Here is a nice condo:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1606452

Little more than 2 1/2 years ago these condos were trying to be sold for $389 at the tip of the peak in July of 2005.

Sound like a deal, however, wouldn’t you rather just get a detached home in a nice neighborhood with more square footage for $5,000 less then hear neighbors through your wall.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=6234680

I think that most of the posters fail to understand a few variables in this housing equation:

A) The amount of inventory and the time for these homes to even get to the market and decreasing sales volume.

http://www/dataquick.com

B) The volume of subprime resets and Alt-A resets that will increase inventory in 08 and 09. I’ll leave the derivitive market alone.

http://housing-kaboom.blogspot.com/2008/03/spring-bounce-and-happy-st-paddys-day.html

http://www.housingderivatives.typepad.com/

C) The deteriorating credit market and the unwillingness of banks to lend, full doc income, and DTI ratios that are based on your last filed 1099.

D) $4 dollar gas and growing.

As someone in the Auto finance business I can tell you straight that we are not out of the woods at all. A friend of mine told me that one of the Hummer stores in his area had sold 4 vehicles this month and 1 was an unwind due to the fact they could not obtain financing. 4 vehicles! You can’t run a new car store pay expenses and employees with that low volume.

40 mile commute to work (OC, San Diego) = 80 miles per day x 5 days= 400 weekly miles
400 miles / 20 miles per gallon = 20 gallons
20 gallons x $4 = $80
$80 x 4 weeks = $320
$320 x 12 months

$3,840 annual gas expense

If this is based on after tax income that we are looking at x 1.25 or $4,800 pre-tax income. Ten percent of a person’s gross $48K income is spent on gasoline to get to the job to pay the gas 🙂 Ironic?

Do you want me to do the same math for auto payments, auto insurance , extra vehicle for wife? How about food costs?

The Auto lenders are not lending because the cost of living is increasing as incomes are decreasing. The chances of them being paid is less so they have higher interest rates to compensate for the risk and protect their capital in case of a loss. You need a big down payment in order to get around the above or pay through the nose in interest.

The same is with the Home lenders. These prices are decreasing because we cannot get people financed. Big downpayments will work to get over high DTIs but which average Joe who props the market has $50K in cash right now?

I challenge anyone to bring any hard factual data to support a contrary opinion.

On a personal level for you Temeculans who love this area. I don’t care about gas (both our cars run on 91 supreme). I eat wherever I want and shop at Henrys and Barrons. I rent my lovely 1,850 sq. ft. home for $1,600. and based on median declines I made about $110K this year not buying a home and will be $100 debt free by November.

So to all the stupid ignorant people who thought they were wealthy and I was the low class renter. . . . how do you like them apples 🙂

Comments welcome:

PS: Lexington Law firm (www.lexingtonlaw.com). I have had tremendous success.

April 11, 2008 at 6:43 AM #184859

Nor-LA-SD-guy
Participant

These seem like they would be a good deal for first time buyers IMO .. No hope ?? that looks like hope to me .

April 11, 2008 at 6:43 AM #184876

Nor-LA-SD-guy
Participant

These seem like they would be a good deal for first time buyers IMO .. No hope ?? that looks like hope to me .

April 11, 2008 at 6:43 AM #184905

Nor-LA-SD-guy
Participant

These seem like they would be a good deal for first time buyers IMO .. No hope ?? that looks like hope to me .

April 11, 2008 at 6:43 AM #184912

Nor-LA-SD-guy
Participant

These seem like they would be a good deal for first time buyers IMO .. No hope ?? that looks like hope to me .

April 11, 2008 at 6:43 AM #184916

Nor-LA-SD-guy
Participant

These seem like they would be a good deal for first time buyers IMO .. No hope ?? that looks like hope to me .

April 11, 2008 at 8:40 AM #184950

hipmatt
Participant

“40 mile commute to work (OC, San Diego) = 80 miles per day x 5 days= 400 weekly miles”

How do people get 40 miles from Temecula to San Diego??? I get closer to 61…
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&hl=en&geocode=8149252004434038745,33.510640,-117.117441&saddr=33.512202,-117.107563&daddr=san+diego,+ca&mra=dme&mrcr=0&mrsp=0&sz=13&sll=33.504902,-117.088509&sspn=0.104347,0.160675&ie=UTF8&z=13
and to the OC????
I get over 60 miles one way again…
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&hl=en&geocode=&saddr=33.516209,-117.100525&daddr=santa+ana,+ca&mra=dme&mrcr=0&mrsp=0&sz=10&sll=33.688924,-117.424622&sspn=0.832991,1.2854&ie=UTF8&z=10

Your looking at at least 120 miles daily total commute to either place.

“I don’t care about gas (both our cars run on 91 supreme). I eat wherever I want and shop at Henrys and Barrons. I rent my lovely 1,850 sq. ft. home for $1,600. and based on median declines I made about $110K this year not buying a home and will be $100 debt free by November.”

… hmm, now that we can clearly see that you “are living the dream”, I only have one question for you .. How much money did you donate to Idol Gives Back?

I generally agree with you though about Temecula.

April 11, 2008 at 8:40 AM #184957

hipmatt
Participant

“40 mile commute to work (OC, San Diego) = 80 miles per day x 5 days= 400 weekly miles”

How do people get 40 miles from Temecula to San Diego??? I get closer to 61…
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&hl=en&geocode=8149252004434038745,33.510640,-117.117441&saddr=33.512202,-117.107563&daddr=san+diego,+ca&mra=dme&mrcr=0&mrsp=0&sz=13&sll=33.504902,-117.088509&sspn=0.104347,0.160675&ie=UTF8&z=13
and to the OC????
I get over 60 miles one way again…
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&hl=en&geocode=&saddr=33.516209,-117.100525&daddr=santa+ana,+ca&mra=dme&mrcr=0&mrsp=0&sz=10&sll=33.688924,-117.424622&sspn=0.832991,1.2854&ie=UTF8&z=10

Your looking at at least 120 miles daily total commute to either place.

“I don’t care about gas (both our cars run on 91 supreme). I eat wherever I want and shop at Henrys and Barrons. I rent my lovely 1,850 sq. ft. home for $1,600. and based on median declines I made about $110K this year not buying a home and will be $100 debt free by November.”

… hmm, now that we can clearly see that you “are living the dream”, I only have one question for you .. How much money did you donate to Idol Gives Back?

I generally agree with you though about Temecula.

April 11, 2008 at 8:40 AM #184945

hipmatt
Participant

“40 mile commute to work (OC, San Diego) = 80 miles per day x 5 days= 400 weekly miles”

How do people get 40 miles from Temecula to San Diego??? I get closer to 61…
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&hl=en&geocode=8149252004434038745,33.510640,-117.117441&saddr=33.512202,-117.107563&daddr=san+diego,+ca&mra=dme&mrcr=0&mrsp=0&sz=13&sll=33.504902,-117.088509&sspn=0.104347,0.160675&ie=UTF8&z=13
and to the OC????
I get over 60 miles one way again…
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&hl=en&geocode=&saddr=33.516209,-117.100525&daddr=santa+ana,+ca&mra=dme&mrcr=0&mrsp=0&sz=10&sll=33.688924,-117.424622&sspn=0.832991,1.2854&ie=UTF8&z=10

Your looking at at least 120 miles daily total commute to either place.

“I don’t care about gas (both our cars run on 91 supreme). I eat wherever I want and shop at Henrys and Barrons. I rent my lovely 1,850 sq. ft. home for $1,600. and based on median declines I made about $110K this year not buying a home and will be $100 debt free by November.”

… hmm, now that we can clearly see that you “are living the dream”, I only have one question for you .. How much money did you donate to Idol Gives Back?

I generally agree with you though about Temecula.

April 11, 2008 at 8:40 AM #184914

hipmatt
Participant

“40 mile commute to work (OC, San Diego) = 80 miles per day x 5 days= 400 weekly miles”

How do people get 40 miles from Temecula to San Diego??? I get closer to 61…
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&hl=en&geocode=8149252004434038745,33.510640,-117.117441&saddr=33.512202,-117.107563&daddr=san+diego,+ca&mra=dme&mrcr=0&mrsp=0&sz=13&sll=33.504902,-117.088509&sspn=0.104347,0.160675&ie=UTF8&z=13
and to the OC????
I get over 60 miles one way again…
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&hl=en&geocode=&saddr=33.516209,-117.100525&daddr=santa+ana,+ca&mra=dme&mrcr=0&mrsp=0&sz=10&sll=33.688924,-117.424622&sspn=0.832991,1.2854&ie=UTF8&z=10

Your looking at at least 120 miles daily total commute to either place.

“I don’t care about gas (both our cars run on 91 supreme). I eat wherever I want and shop at Henrys and Barrons. I rent my lovely 1,850 sq. ft. home for $1,600. and based on median declines I made about $110K this year not buying a home and will be $100 debt free by November.”

… hmm, now that we can clearly see that you “are living the dream”, I only have one question for you .. How much money did you donate to Idol Gives Back?

I generally agree with you though about Temecula.

April 11, 2008 at 8:40 AM #184898

hipmatt
Participant

“40 mile commute to work (OC, San Diego) = 80 miles per day x 5 days= 400 weekly miles”

How do people get 40 miles from Temecula to San Diego??? I get closer to 61…
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&hl=en&geocode=8149252004434038745,33.510640,-117.117441&saddr=33.512202,-117.107563&daddr=san+diego,+ca&mra=dme&mrcr=0&mrsp=0&sz=13&sll=33.504902,-117.088509&sspn=0.104347,0.160675&ie=UTF8&z=13
and to the OC????
I get over 60 miles one way again…
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&hl=en&geocode=&saddr=33.516209,-117.100525&daddr=santa+ana,+ca&mra=dme&mrcr=0&mrsp=0&sz=10&sll=33.688924,-117.424622&sspn=0.832991,1.2854&ie=UTF8&z=10

Your looking at at least 120 miles daily total commute to either place.

“I don’t care about gas (both our cars run on 91 supreme). I eat wherever I want and shop at Henrys and Barrons. I rent my lovely 1,850 sq. ft. home for $1,600. and based on median declines I made about $110K this year not buying a home and will be $100 debt free by November.”

… hmm, now that we can clearly see that you “are living the dream”, I only have one question for you .. How much money did you donate to Idol Gives Back?

I generally agree with you though about Temecula.

April 11, 2008 at 9:03 AM #184944

Nor-LA-SD-guy
Participant

$4 > a gallon for Gas is one reason I work from home mostly,

(Thank you god for the internet)

Anyway, this is also why I drive a car that gets > 30 miles a gallon.

Can’t wait for those new generation of electric vehicles .

Good luck to you…

April 11, 2008 at 9:03 AM #184929

Nor-LA-SD-guy
Participant

$4 > a gallon for Gas is one reason I work from home mostly,

(Thank you god for the internet)

Anyway, this is also why I drive a car that gets > 30 miles a gallon.

Can’t wait for those new generation of electric vehicles .

Good luck to you…

April 11, 2008 at 9:03 AM #184977

Nor-LA-SD-guy
Participant

$4 > a gallon for Gas is one reason I work from home mostly,

(Thank you god for the internet)

Anyway, this is also why I drive a car that gets > 30 miles a gallon.

Can’t wait for those new generation of electric vehicles .

Good luck to you…

April 11, 2008 at 9:03 AM #184982

Nor-LA-SD-guy
Participant

$4 > a gallon for Gas is one reason I work from home mostly,

(Thank you god for the internet)

Anyway, this is also why I drive a car that gets > 30 miles a gallon.

Can’t wait for those new generation of electric vehicles .

Good luck to you…
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