I think the only way there could be a "bounce back" would be if some new financing scheme emerges. If we go back to 20% down as the only way to buy a house it will take a very long time before the market bounces back. There aren't that many people who have accumulated 20% down payment and are willing to go out and spend it right now. After the carnage, when there is a lot more blood in the street, many people will be even more reluctant to part with their dough.
However…builders, realtors, lenders, etc., may go to the govt. and argue for some new special "scheme" to "jump start" the housing market…so there may be some new program to get people into housing, and that could jump start the cycle.
I got a new funding scheme that I can propose.
Offering 40,50,60 year fixed rate mortgages.
That way 40,50,60, someone will have to pay all the way up tho their golden years and beyond. You might wonder how someone would pay for a 60 year mortgage if they take one out when your 30years old? Ah, simple. These new mortgages would also be tide into a life insurance policy where the mortgagee pays the insurance premium as part of the mortgage, and the beneficiary of the policy is the creditor.
So as part of mortgage, you not only have to to pay PMI if you put less than 20%, you also pay LIFE insurance premium to cover if you croak over before you finish paying all 60 years. Of course, the life insurance premium would be steep, just like Universal Life or Whole Life. But, don't worry, it would also be tax deductible.
Creative isn't it? I should have worked for wall street.