predictions…

well, i can say that you’ll be getting predictions of further decline … the depths that will be plumbed will vary…

from ~ 25% from peak, to ~40%…

see http://piggington.com/if_you_think_the_mother_of_all_recessions_isnt_coming

ciao…

Voz

Voz

predictions…

well, i can say that you’ll be getting predictions of further decline … the depths that will be plumbed will vary…

from ~ 25% from peak, to ~40%…

see http://piggington.com/if_you_think_the_mother_of_all_recessions_isnt_coming

ciao…

Voz

Voz

In looking at Centex I assume you are referring to Hemingway?

I have been looking in Hemingway since the summer, and yes the prices have come down, but not that much overall.

Centex, unlike Standard Pacific has not really lowered their prices that much (or offered many incentives), but I have not checked back recently. I have tried to negotiate with Centex with basically no luck at all.

My take on Temecula as a 5 year resident and student of the housing market in Temecula: Depends on the community, the price drops in Crowne Hill have surprised me, but then Crowne Hill does not have any amenities to speak of (pools,etc…).

Morgan Hill could go sub 400k (for the non view smaller homes) in the near future if it isn’t already.

Parts of Redhawk are nice, but was only recently incorporated into the city – meaning the building codes were not as strict as in the city proper – at least based on my observations.

Temecula is supported to a considerable extent by Camp Pendleton (lots of Marines live in Temecula), so will be somewhat insulated from a recession.

My 2008 prediction for Temecula: Perhaps another 10% for the resale market by this time next year (I am basing that on my house – a typical Temecula house). New houses may be a different story, maybe less than 10%.

Be Warned: Many on this board like to trash Temecula, and often put Temecula/Murrieta in the same basket. I know Temecula AND San Diego well and maintain my objectivity at all times.

In looking at Centex I assume you are referring to Hemingway?

I have been looking in Hemingway since the summer, and yes the prices have come down, but not that much overall.

Centex, unlike Standard Pacific has not really lowered their prices that much (or offered many incentives), but I have not checked back recently. I have tried to negotiate with Centex with basically no luck at all.

My take on Temecula as a 5 year resident and student of the housing market in Temecula: Depends on the community, the price drops in Crowne Hill have surprised me, but then Crowne Hill does not have any amenities to speak of (pools,etc…).

Morgan Hill could go sub 400k (for the non view smaller homes) in the near future if it isn’t already.

Parts of Redhawk are nice, but was only recently incorporated into the city – meaning the building codes were not as strict as in the city proper – at least based on my observations.

Temecula is supported to a considerable extent by Camp Pendleton (lots of Marines live in Temecula), so will be somewhat insulated from a recession.

My 2008 prediction for Temecula: Perhaps another 10% for the resale market by this time next year (I am basing that on my house – a typical Temecula house). New houses may be a different story, maybe less than 10%.

Be Warned: Many on this board like to trash Temecula, and often put Temecula/Murrieta in the same basket. I know Temecula AND San Diego well and maintain my objectivity at all times.

In looking at Centex I assume you are referring to Hemingway?

I have been looking in Hemingway since the summer, and yes the prices have come down, but not that much overall.

Centex, unlike Standard Pacific has not really lowered their prices that much (or offered many incentives), but I have not checked back recently. I have tried to negotiate with Centex with basically no luck at all.

My take on Temecula as a 5 year resident and student of the housing market in Temecula: Depends on the community, the price drops in Crowne Hill have surprised me, but then Crowne Hill does not have any amenities to speak of (pools,etc…).

Morgan Hill could go sub 400k (for the non view smaller homes) in the near future if it isn’t already.

Parts of Redhawk are nice, but was only recently incorporated into the city – meaning the building codes were not as strict as in the city proper – at least based on my observations.

Temecula is supported to a considerable extent by Camp Pendleton (lots of Marines live in Temecula), so will be somewhat insulated from a recession.

My 2008 prediction for Temecula: Perhaps another 10% for the resale market by this time next year (I am basing that on my house – a typical Temecula house). New houses may be a different story, maybe less than 10%.

Be Warned: Many on this board like to trash Temecula, and often put Temecula/Murrieta in the same basket. I know Temecula AND San Diego well and maintain my objectivity at all times.

The whole area will fall another 10-20% in 2008, right now there is huge disparity between the repos and the resales. I have posted some model matches on other threads for half off a neighbors exact house. Don’t pay in the 400’s for Crowne hill, get on redfin, it’s crawling with price drops and because it was built 2003-2005 it will get hit hard by the repos.

Hemingway has tandem garages but they have a great location so low 400’s is a fair price there but they are selling so slow and they have standing inventory and as Paramount pointed out, they haven’t really lowered the prices in line with the competition. They will get to the 300’s or they will fold, in a year they’ve built about 20 houses, probably sold 15, at this rate it will take them a decade to build out. They haven’t even dropped their prices 100k, around here that is considered out of touch with reality.

I disagree with paramount about the redhawk building codes, they have always been near the top echelon for design and qualilty, what you see that is below par is actually not Redhawk, don’t be fooled by realtors improperly representing a property in redhawk or using the phrase “redhawk area”. The areas that are sub par for the most part are in bridlevale, vail ranch and some other fill in tracts that are not part of the redhawk hoa. I was here when the area incorporated into the city and there is no change, in fact some of the pre-city developments were the best with a couple of exceptions (mostly things built by centex). Here’s an example of one of the dozens of redhawk/golf course view properties that have fallen below the 400 mark. These have true three car garages, not tandem.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=852863

This will continue into 2008 and properties like the one above will hit 300, while 400 will get you anything you want.

Morgan is already gone below 400k, here’s a 350k short but it’s a weird floorplan, 2300 sq ft 2 br, that has limited marketability, however if you don’t have kids it might be perfect.

Heres a nice one for 402k, very upgraded, if it wasnt the extreme east of Redhawk I’d throw a 300 or 350 offer at it. It’s not a short, it a true bank owned

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1360838

If you look around you will find that 200k off is the norm, with half off being the goal, even with the drops they are not selling, so there’s another 100k to go.

The whole area will fall another 10-20% in 2008, right now there is huge disparity between the repos and the resales. I have posted some model matches on other threads for half off a neighbors exact house. Don’t pay in the 400’s for Crowne hill, get on redfin, it’s crawling with price drops and because it was built 2003-2005 it will get hit hard by the repos.

Hemingway has tandem garages but they have a great location so low 400’s is a fair price there but they are selling so slow and they have standing inventory and as Paramount pointed out, they haven’t really lowered the prices in line with the competition. They will get to the 300’s or they will fold, in a year they’ve built about 20 houses, probably sold 15, at this rate it will take them a decade to build out. They haven’t even dropped their prices 100k, around here that is considered out of touch with reality.

I disagree with paramount about the redhawk building codes, they have always been near the top echelon for design and qualilty, what you see that is below par is actually not Redhawk, don’t be fooled by realtors improperly representing a property in redhawk or using the phrase “redhawk area”. The areas that are sub par for the most part are in bridlevale, vail ranch and some other fill in tracts that are not part of the redhawk hoa. I was here when the area incorporated into the city and there is no change, in fact some of the pre-city developments were the best with a couple of exceptions (mostly things built by centex). Here’s an example of one of the dozens of redhawk/golf course view properties that have fallen below the 400 mark. These have true three car garages, not tandem.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=852863

This will continue into 2008 and properties like the one above will hit 300, while 400 will get you anything you want.

Morgan is already gone below 400k, here’s a 350k short but it’s a weird floorplan, 2300 sq ft 2 br, that has limited marketability, however if you don’t have kids it might be perfect.

Heres a nice one for 402k, very upgraded, if it wasnt the extreme east of Redhawk I’d throw a 300 or 350 offer at it. It’s not a short, it a true bank owned

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1360838

If you look around you will find that 200k off is the norm, with half off being the goal, even with the drops they are not selling, so there’s another 100k to go.