I had a similar experience recently. My neighbor who I know only very casually knocks on my door seeking advise on renting out her house. I guess by virtue of being a renter I’m supposed to have some special knowledge to share. Anyway, the conversation turns to the state of the market and I am amazed to find how out of touch she is. Although she did have an awareness that the market had softened and that she couldn’t sell for what she owed (worked for the builder and financed 100% in 2005) her perceived value of her home was at least $100,000 more than what the current market is. When I shared some recent model match comps (REO’s)with her she a) was not aware of these sales and b) believed not that the market had dropped to that level but that the purchasers had instant equity because the price was so low. She went on to tell me that her plan was to rent the house out for a year at which time she fully believed that the market would have recovered to the point she could once again sell the house for a profit.
The whole conversation also left me wondering if there is a lot more distressed inventory than what is being reported. Consider this, three houses in a row on the street I live on none of which is in default. 1) The house I rent- market value $500,000 total loans $625,000 rental income $2500 total of payments $4000. 2) The neighbor I mentioned who is upside down $100,000 and looking to rent and I forgot to mention laid off by her builder employer 3) Laid off escrow worker who is also looking to rent until things get better. I would argue that even though none of these houses is technically in trouble they are all headed to a bad ending. Are others seeing this in their neighborhoods?