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October 14, 2007 at 10:37 AM #10610October 14, 2007 at 1:47 PM #88981CoronitaParticipant
you have to be kidding right? I won't go there even. The bubble mania in both real estate and equities there make things here look like child's play. Enjoy any china etf now while you can. That crash will look several times worse than here.
October 14, 2007 at 1:47 PM #88988CoronitaParticipantyou have to be kidding right? I won't go there even. The bubble mania in both real estate and equities there make things here look like child's play. Enjoy any china etf now while you can. That crash will look several times worse than here.
October 14, 2007 at 8:10 PM #89003crParticipantThat’s quite a claim f_l_u. What makes you expect an impending crash in China?
Considering their (albeit poor) population, growing currency, and the amount of US dollars they hold, the only thing they have to fear is American’s who stop spending more money than they have. Once thei rcitizens start spending even a fraction of what American’s do, they won’t need any of the US bonds.
October 14, 2007 at 8:10 PM #89010crParticipantThat’s quite a claim f_l_u. What makes you expect an impending crash in China?
Considering their (albeit poor) population, growing currency, and the amount of US dollars they hold, the only thing they have to fear is American’s who stop spending more money than they have. Once thei rcitizens start spending even a fraction of what American’s do, they won’t need any of the US bonds.
October 14, 2007 at 10:00 PM #89017CoronitaParticipantcooprider14,
1) There is no population that will consume more ridiculously than americans.
2) The disparity in wealth between rich and poor is far greater in china.
3) A lot of the real estate appreciation that occurs in china happened because of speculative foreign investments. Chinese governments have been exercising considerable controls into effect to curb for investments. When eventually the can control it, the cyclical speculative nature of real estate will stop, because your average chinese can't afford real estate.
4) The chinese financial system lack the proper controls and checks and balances, anything small problem will get manified, because any problem has no precedence. A lot of rules/regulation do not actually come from the central government, but from the provincial government, and are constantly changing.
6) Like I said before, the market system in China isn't really a free market. It's heavily regulated.
7) A lot of the wealth that your average chinese is counting on has been on speculative stock market investing and real estate investing, not on income alone. When the stock market/real estate market crashes, which it will, this will wipe out average joe chinese.
Happened every other asian country….And no, things aren't going to be different this time in China.
The argument that the labor pool in china is so large…Well, a lot of that labor pull cannot be tapped for some reason or the other. I don't know if any of you folks have been noticing…But a lot of stuff is no longer coming out of China. Some of it is now coming out of Vietnam. Why? Because the cost of labor in china is increasing. Check out things like furniture and clothes.
You might not like the weak dollar, but I'm going to take a contrarian viewpoint here. I'm guessing corporate earnings for U.S. tech companies are going to look pretty good the next couple of quarters.
October 14, 2007 at 10:00 PM #89024CoronitaParticipantcooprider14,
1) There is no population that will consume more ridiculously than americans.
2) The disparity in wealth between rich and poor is far greater in china.
3) A lot of the real estate appreciation that occurs in china happened because of speculative foreign investments. Chinese governments have been exercising considerable controls into effect to curb for investments. When eventually the can control it, the cyclical speculative nature of real estate will stop, because your average chinese can't afford real estate.
4) The chinese financial system lack the proper controls and checks and balances, anything small problem will get manified, because any problem has no precedence. A lot of rules/regulation do not actually come from the central government, but from the provincial government, and are constantly changing.
6) Like I said before, the market system in China isn't really a free market. It's heavily regulated.
7) A lot of the wealth that your average chinese is counting on has been on speculative stock market investing and real estate investing, not on income alone. When the stock market/real estate market crashes, which it will, this will wipe out average joe chinese.
Happened every other asian country….And no, things aren't going to be different this time in China.
The argument that the labor pool in china is so large…Well, a lot of that labor pull cannot be tapped for some reason or the other. I don't know if any of you folks have been noticing…But a lot of stuff is no longer coming out of China. Some of it is now coming out of Vietnam. Why? Because the cost of labor in china is increasing. Check out things like furniture and clothes.
You might not like the weak dollar, but I'm going to take a contrarian viewpoint here. I'm guessing corporate earnings for U.S. tech companies are going to look pretty good the next couple of quarters.
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