That’s a fairly sharp increase in NOTs. It certainly looks as if SD County will break into 4 digit NOTs in short order, which is kind of amazing given that the previous monthly record, before this year, was 589 in July of 1996.
For the entire 2001 year, the number of NOTs was 826.
So, let’s see, we’re at a run rate of 900+ trustee sales per month right now and the re-sets don’t peak until the middle of next year. So – *add two, carry the one* – we could see 15,000 to 20,000 trustee sales in 2008 if current trends continue. That would be roughly TRIPLE the worst year for trustee sales (1996) from the 90s. To quote Beavis and Butthead, “Huh huh… that would be cool.”
Here is a plot of the monthly data to show it visually – I included 200 to 2007 plus 1996 for reference. I think it speaks for itself – things start unwinding in 2006 and have not slowed down. I suppose it would be interesting to compare how quickly things came apart prior to 1996, but I only had a minute to enter the data.
Thanks HereWeGo for the link, and thanks to Artifact for the graphs! Your graphs, in this link and others, are always much appreciated (I love seeing data).
FSD, you’re right. The absolute peak is in November of this year. However, April of 2008 is just 10% below the November peak in terms of re-set activity. Thus, I should have said, “the re-sets don’t start to meaningfully decline until the middle of next year.” And subprime re-sets, specifically, don’t start to really show a lot of improvement until late 2008.
Posted this as a comment in Rich’s post, but no one has answered yet…SDR…anyone?
Can someone help me put this in perspective? We had nearly 1K NOT’s in the county this month. Isn’t average county sales volume running 2K-3K and likely slowing down?
I’m assuming I’m missing something, but if correct, wouldn’t that imply that we will have 30-50% of sales coming from REO’s soon???
July total sales for sfr/attached is 3059 per DataQuick. So with REOs at nearly 1K per month that would make sense.
However, I have no clue as to how many REOs are selling per month(that would be another good data point). I am under the assumption that they are only selling a fraction of what the are taking back at this point. It’s kind of staggering when you think about it.
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