The mortgage rates are following the 10 year treasury and we are at or near 2 year lows on that index. Why? I have no idea especially with the weakness of the dollar.
I would agree that waiting for the prices to drop is most likely the prudent move. It is not if they drop, it is when they drop, how far will they drop, and most important of all, what will interest rates be.
Wtb, Do I think Mariners Point in Carlsbad will be at 650-700k in the Spring or Summer? No I do not. Do I think that it could be that pricing in 09? Perhaps. Does anyone gaurantee todays rates at that time? Nope. Will the dollar be of more or of less value at that time? Who knows.
Jumbo same argument for Carmel Valley.
To question what pricing will do is not hard anymore. We all do agree it will drop and we all agree we have a long ways to go. The wild card though is the interest rate climate. I have a strange feeling that things may stagger a bit…to explain further, I think given an interest rate climate that is static, the price drops will be measured, sticky and move slowly, but they will move over time. However, if rates jump then I think pricing will not respond accordingly… it will not react to rate hikes immediately and things will glut up… then pricing will react in a more heavy handed and uneven manner. However this will take time. I probably am not expressing myself well…
The bottom line is that pricing will be better in 08 then 07 but I don’t think we will see huge gashes of 20% or anything like that in highly desired areas. I also think spring of 08 pricing will bump a little then fall off stronger in the summer and fall…
