I can almost guarantee that one was part of the fraud, 460 to 670 in seven months of 2006, by aug of 06 we were already dropping, then it repo’d back for 558 becaue they put down the 20% that was part of the inflated kickback, something stinks in denmark there.
I think that pizza and matt have a point, there will be examples of 2002 prices and even 2001, perhaps beyond. But I study the different dynamics of different neighborhoods and I am wary of making blanket assumptions, certain neighborhoods just hold up and others have collapsed or have started to. I just don’t think a blanket reversal to a given year is an absolute.
matt, my point about rental ratio is just my own behavior as an investor and knowing that others will use similar math, so guessing the bottom is a formula of knowing where others will have the lightbulb go off, when buying beats renting, plain and simple. Whatever your view of the job market or the area is still your view and you need to support it with facts. Median income of 92592 is 69k, traditional median home prices are 5-7x median income (350 on a down year and 470k in a good year). I’m scoping 2k rental listing at 300k (150x rent). I know they will take 250k (125 rent). At 200k, it’s a gimme (100x rent). I don’t see that much more fall, but then again at 250k it is an early 2003 price, 200k would be about a 2000 or 2001 price, 1998 would be a 140k. My guess, it will land between 2000 and 2003 pricing, rents will fall a little but right now they are high because with all the vacants, there is a lot of housing that is underutilized.
