San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
November 2011 Resale Data Rodeo
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 7, 2011 - 10:28am
The median price per square foot of San Diego resale homes took a bit of a hit last month, down 2.5% for single family homes, .3% for condos, and 1.9% in aggregate. (The single family home price series is tends to give a more dependable read on the state of pricing power). On a year-over-year basis, the median price per square foot was down 8.9% for single family homes, 4.4% for condos, and 7.5% in aggregate.
The Case-Shiller proxy, which based on a three-month average of the detached home median price per square foot, fell by an even 1.0%. That's down 6.0% from last November. Recall that the "official" Case-Shiller index hit a new inflation-adjusted low as of September -- it looks like we've fallen a couple percent further since.
Below are versions of the above graphs gridlined and aligned with calendar years in order to help elucidate the effects of seasonality. Clearly, we are in what tends to be the weak season.
Closed sales dropped by 3.4% for the month, a smaller decline than we've seen in recent Novembers. They were up 10.1% for the year.
Pending sales fell by a scant .8%, which is also better than the typical November drop. Pendings were up 8.4% from a year ago.
Inventory was down by 4.7% for the month and down 13.6% from a year ago:
That left 5.1 months of inventory, down 3.9% for the month and 20.3% from last November.
This is actually a fairly healthy level of inventory, comfortably below a level at which the market could be considered "oversupplied." It's interesting that prices have been weak in spite of the reasonable level of supply and the unreasonable lowness of mortgage rates. We are of course in a time of year in which prices tend to get pressured lower, all other things being equal. The market also has a lot of foreclosure inventory and a fairly anemic economy to contend with.
The negatives have gotten the upper hand lately, but I don't think a serious decline is in the works barring a major change in macro factors such as rates and employment. A slow, unsteady grind towards lower housing valuation seems to be the more likely outcome for now.
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|* Rich Toscano is a registered representative of and offers securities and investment advisory services through Girard Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer, Registered Investment Advisor, and member FINRA/SIPC. Pacific Capital Associates is not a subsidiary or affiliate of Girard Securities. The views and opinions expressed on this site are not those of Pacific Capital Associates or Girard Securities, Inc. The information on this site should not be construed as investment advice.|