Inflation-Adjusted Home Prices Hit New Post-Bubble Low

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 3, 2011 - 6:15pm
The Case-Shiller index of San Diego home prices declined in September.  For the month, the low-priced tier dropped 1.6 percent, the middle tier 1.1 percent, and the high tier .1 percent.  The aggregate index fell by .8 percent.



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Submitted by carlsbadworker on December 3, 2011 - 9:50pm.

Sweet. So with all the shadow inventory, they still couldn't stop the inevitable?

By the way, does anyone know if Rancho Carillo in Carlsbad is a good location? I am starting to think about moving back to Carlsbad as I originally planned, given there now seems to be many below $200/sqft home in those area.

Submitted by CAwireman on December 4, 2011 - 9:15am.

Rich,

This is pretty big news. Hitting a new low - now talk on when we'll hit bottom will pick up again. Many, including me, thought it was behind us.

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 4, 2011 - 11:42am.

Rich
Hate to be needy but when you do these could you try to include one long term graph? Its nice to be able to see where we are relative to the long term trends.

thx

sdr

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 4, 2011 - 11:49am.

Just for you, sdr ;-)

Soon I will update the long term price to income and price to rent charts, which I think give the best read on where we are valuation wise. Soon!

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 4, 2011 - 11:59am.

Thanx Rich!!! You are the best!!

We look dangerously close in aggregate to that 0% gridline. As I expect an extended period of home price stagnancy and general CPI inflation we should cross it. Wonder when we will?

Submitted by TexasLine on December 4, 2011 - 11:40pm.

Rich Toscano wrote:
Just for you, sdr ;-)

Soon I will update the long term price to income and price to rent charts, which I think give the best read on where we are valuation wise. Soon!

I've been also wondering about the way the longer term data might look. For the last year I thought a graph like this would be interesting. Thanks for posting that. It is very interesting.

Submitted by urbanrealtor on December 5, 2011 - 12:57am.

Rich Toscano wrote:
Just for you, sdr ;-)

Soon I will update the long term price to income and price to rent charts, which I think give the best read on where we are valuation wise. Soon!

That is a fucking grim graph.
Or awesome if you are me.

Still

Wow.

Submitted by AN on December 5, 2011 - 1:00am.

Rich, can you also update the shambling toward affordability graphs?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 5, 2011 - 10:38am.

AN wrote:
Rich, can you also update the shambling toward affordability graphs?

Soon... very soon. (In theory).

Submitted by AN on December 5, 2011 - 11:24am.

Rich Toscano wrote:
AN wrote:
Rich, can you also update the shambling toward affordability graphs?

Soon... very soon. (In theory).


Love it :-). Thanks Rich.

Submitted by systemBuilder on December 5, 2011 - 7:52pm.

low-tier homes used as an investment vehicle might be causing their prices to outperform the mid-tier and high-tier homes since the march 2009 low (on the 1989-present home price graph.)

Submitted by Jazzman on December 6, 2011 - 12:12pm.

LA's biggest declines were in the high tier (-1.1%) which is where you'd expect them to be. It is a hefty slice, and if that continues into Oct and Nov, we are back to pre-tax credit momentum.

Interestingly, but not surprisingly Corelogic has home prices down 1.3% in October http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/1...

Golman Sachs predicts a recovery in 2012 and bases current declines on vacancy rates http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/...

The inventory/demand ratio probably varies wildly across the country and within sub-markets. I am amazed at how willing some buyers are to part with their money. "$800k still only buys a shack" was how a hotel manager described to me the market in Carmel (Monterey) recently. High end foreclosures still appear to be only trickling into listings in some areas, notably Santa Barbara, creating the illusion of demand and supply equilibrium. Rates may be driving some markets, but a residue of bubble mentality remains in evidence.

Submitted by barnaby33 on December 29, 2011 - 9:54am.

Why grim? Oh and answer your PMs dammit.
Josh

Submitted by barnaby33 on December 29, 2011 - 9:54am.

When will then be now? Soooon.....

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