Since the last update in July, prices have shambled a small distance towards affordability, and monthly payments an even smaller distance.
I continue to think that the most likely scenario is for prices to kind of go nowhere for a while as rents/incomes/inflation catch up, allowing the blue lines in the above graphs to return to more historically normal levels. (More nuance on this view can be found in the previous installment).
It’s worth mentioning the potential effects of the terrible LA fires. It’s possible they will goose demand here, if some people who lost their houses decide to move to SD. That could slow or halt the expected return to affordability for a while, but it seems unlikely to change anything long term. It amounts to a temporary reduction of supply, which could impact pricing while it lasts, but which will be reversed once those homes are rebuilt.