Here’s a graph I haven’t updated for a while. It shows how many jobs were gained or lost, according to the latest monthly employment estimates, by varying San Diego employment sectors in the year leading up to September 2008. (Sectors that changed by fewer than 300 jobs have been excluded to keep the graph a little more readable).
Here’s how this chart looked a little over a year ago. Back then, the leisure and hospitality sector was providing a huge boost. That sector is still growing, but not nearly so fast. Meanwhile the housing bubble beneficiary sectors (construction, finance, and retail) have deteriorated significantly. One bright spot: the manufacturing sector, while still shrinking slightly, is doing so at a notably slower pace than it was last year.
(written for VoiceofSanDiego.org)
Rich Toscano wrote:One bright
[quote=Rich Toscano]One bright spot: the manufacturing sector, while still shrinking slightly, is doing so at a notably slower pace than it was last year.
[/quote]
Is that just because there is so little manufacturing left that it simply can’t shrink much more? Also, if there is manufacturing left, will layoffs accelerate now that the dollar is rising?
XBoxBoy
So if credit is tightening
So if credit is tightening and you have to now prove you can make payments and have to put money down, how many people employed in leisure/hospitality or education will be able to buy a place unless it is going to meet the stringent criterias. That tells me the pool of buyers may be shrinking.
I find it hard to believe
I find it hard to believe hospitality and leisure has had an increase in employment. If this is true, I imagine there is going to be steep reversal very soon.
Every small business owner I
Every small business owner I know is down 10% to 50% in sales for 2008. I would imagine a lot of San Diego layoffs at the end of the year.
Rich, what is the lag time on your data?
The data is from September.
The data is from September. It’s an estimate, though, and adulterated by the BLS “birth death model” as described in these two articles:
http://voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2008/02/22/toscano/842jobdata012208.txt
http://voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2008/03/21/toscano/831jobgrowth022908.txt
So the data is probably still overstating employment.
rich
Is restaurant/waitressing in
Is restaurant/waitressing in the hospitality section of the graph?
I was in the pool hall Society today in PB and while I was there saw about a continuous stream of women come in to apply for a job. I asked the manager how many applied and he said he got 55 applications, many with “professional resumes” attached. This is for waitress in a pool hall, and these women weren’t teens or college-aged. They were mid to late 20’s or 30’s (the ones I saw). I asked if this is normal and he said he’s never seen it like this.
Rich,
Where do the
Rich,
Where do the biotech/pharmaceutical jobs get accounted for in this graph?
nostra: yes.
speaker: i would
nostra: yes.
speaker: i would assume healthcare but i’m not certain.
rich
That would be my assumption
That would be my assumption also. You hear the mantra about how diversified the San Diego economy is because it includes high paying jobs in tech/software and pharmaceutical/biotech/biomed areas that I find it puzzling that it does not have its own category. I work in the biotech/pharma sector and we have been getting hammered. It is a very grim time locally for biotech/pharma. The biotech/pharma industry as a whole is undergoing contraction. Therefore, you can expect a similar contraction locally.
I have many friends in
I have many friends in biotech/pharma and many were laid off. These are not slackers either, they are hard-working, smart types.