Conduit lenders for securitized commercial real estate loans have stopped quoting new deals in the last two days and have either retracted previous quotes or dramatically increased the spreads (as high as 175 basis points) they want over the 10-year treasury.
There are now serious concerns about whether these kinds of securities can later be sold if commercial real estate is similarly affected. It’s inevitable given that most commercial real estate is financed at rates of interest that exceed the property’s cap rate, and that’s just the easily discernible reason it’s inevitable. There are many other reasons as well.
Here is an article from the Here is an article from the Chicago Tribune about their local commercial real estate market.
“Clearly, the contagion of the housing sector’s ailments — defaults on home loans, Wall Street losses on real estate-backed securities and the tightening debt market — is to be expected because capital markets are interconnected, said Mark “Sam” Davis, senior managing director of real estate for Northbrook-based Allstate Corp.
“The biggest source of capital for real estate now comes from Wall Street, with the same hedge funds that invested in subprime mortgages also investing in commercial property,” he explained. As a result, turmoil in the housing and debt markets has led “to the most volatile period we’ve seen in commercial real estate since the tech bust of 2001.”
This was supposed to be the bright side of real estate.
Anonymous
17 years ago
Are these figures seasonally Are these figures seasonally adjusted? Hospitality/Leisure always goes up in June here in SD – many of my friends have kids who work at SeaWorld, Hotels, restaurants, etc. for the summer. . .if it had not been for hospitality/leisure, these job number would be a disaster.
Anonymous
17 years ago
Michelle Steffes
Does anyone Michelle Steffes
Does anyone have data on wages vis-a-vis leisure industry vs construction. Why aren’t the people working at Sea World buying the mortgage brokers houses?
Voice graphic looks broken.
Voice graphic looks broken. Anybody care to confirm / deny?
NEW DEVELOPMENT:
Conduit
NEW DEVELOPMENT:
Conduit lenders for securitized commercial real estate loans have stopped quoting new deals in the last two days and have either retracted previous quotes or dramatically increased the spreads (as high as 175 basis points) they want over the 10-year treasury.
There are now serious concerns about whether these kinds of securities can later be sold if commercial real estate is similarly affected. It’s inevitable given that most commercial real estate is financed at rates of interest that exceed the property’s cap rate, and that’s just the easily discernible reason it’s inevitable. There are many other reasons as well.
Watch for liquidity to dry up very very quickly
Here is an article from the
Here is an article from the Chicago Tribune about their local commercial real estate market.
“Clearly, the contagion of the housing sector’s ailments — defaults on home loans, Wall Street losses on real estate-backed securities and the tightening debt market — is to be expected because capital markets are interconnected, said Mark “Sam” Davis, senior managing director of real estate for Northbrook-based Allstate Corp.
“The biggest source of capital for real estate now comes from Wall Street, with the same hedge funds that invested in subprime mortgages also investing in commercial property,” he explained. As a result, turmoil in the housing and debt markets has led “to the most volatile period we’ve seen in commercial real estate since the tech bust of 2001.”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-sat_space_0728jul28,0,7948321.story
This was supposed to be the bright side of real estate.
Are these figures seasonally
Are these figures seasonally adjusted? Hospitality/Leisure always goes up in June here in SD – many of my friends have kids who work at SeaWorld, Hotels, restaurants, etc. for the summer. . .if it had not been for hospitality/leisure, these job number would be a disaster.
Michelle Steffes
Does anyone
Michelle Steffes
Does anyone have data on wages vis-a-vis leisure industry vs construction. Why aren’t the people working at Sea World buying the mortgage brokers houses?