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an
an
14 years ago

Very interesting that PPSF is
Very interesting that PPSF is going up while vanilla median is flat for the last 3 months. It would be very interesting to see if this bounce have any steam for the next 3-6 months.

GH
GH
14 years ago

I think you can already see
I think you can already see the flattening on this chart. The 8,000 tax credit is going away, and I believe getting in on this drove the housing market to a big enough degree to create a small spike. Next month downward trend continues as before. There is no reason prices would climb right now.
My $0.02

CA renter
14 years ago
Reply to  GH

GH wrote:I think you can
[quote=GH]I think you can already see the flattening on this chart. The 8,000 tax credit is going away, and I believe getting in on this drove the housing market to a big enough degree to create a small spike. Next month downward trend continues as before. There is no reason prices would climb right now.
My $0.02[/quote]

Agree that the $8,000 tax credit drove much of the buying. I’ve heard it myself from almost every single person we’ve met who have bought this year.

Another thing we have to wait for is higher interest rates — what some of us bears have been waiting for for YEARS. Maybe we will reach a point where the Fed will lose its ability to manipulate the interest rates as they’ve been doing — very successfully, I might add!

pemeliza
14 years ago
Reply to  CA renter

“Next month downward trend
“Next month downward trend continues as before.”

I think the next couple of months will be slow for sure. A buyer isn’t going to jump unless they find an awesome deal. I have been tracking Poway all year (glad I didn’t end up buying there!) and it seemed that the same stubborn sellers refused to except reality all year. Now the inventory seems to be suddenly spiking there (why do so many sellers list their homes in October??) and these same sellers that could have gotten out at a reasonable price this summer are now behind the 8-ball.

The near term fate of the housing market recovery now rests with the government. I still think they will extend the credit and interest rates will stay low. Regardless of what they do, the high end has another leg down (especially in areas like Poway).

temeculaguy
14 years ago
Reply to  pemeliza

Next month’s chart wont go
Next month’s chart wont go down even if the expiring tax credit had something to do with the rally. The charts are behind a few months, Rich changes the color to yellow on the end to show the estimate based on an average of the preceding months. The transactions/or lack of transactions in October, wont hit the charts till the New Year, and based on the all the stories from the buyers, the slowdown hasn’t started yet. It may start to decline tomorrow, who knows, but I’d bet you a nickel that next month’s chart doesn’t show a return to declines, the charts are always behind, it’s just not calculated like stock prices, if stock purchases had a 45 day escrow period to buy them, then it would be behind too. Well at least the case shiller will be behind.

an
an
14 years ago
Reply to  temeculaguy

I know a few people who are
I know a few people who are actively looking to buy right now and they all are complaining of lack of supply. Anything that’s reasonably priced show up, there are 5-10 offers w/in the first few days. They are definitely frustrated. They’re being flat out rejected w/out even a counter for highest best, even when their offers are at/above asking. All of this in the middle of October.