Last week I noted that May had been another good month, as these things go, for home sales. But there is more to the story, as you might expect. Just as there has been a huge disparity in price declines between different areas of San Diego, the recent surge in sales activity has been every bit as uneven.
Using the zip code-level sales data kindly offered up by our pals at the Union-Tribune, I collected information on all zip codes that had more than 20 sales either in May 2007 or May 2008. I put the resulting list in order based on the year-over-year change in sales activity, with the biggest sales increase at the top. Then I took some averages for the top 20 zip codes (those with the biggest increases) and the bottom 20 (those with the biggest decreases). The two lists are here for anyone who wants more detail.
You mean to tell me it’s all
You mean to tell me it’s all about affordability? Kidding aside, from what I’ve seen there is plenty of demand for homes in San Diego, just not at the inflated prices of lore. As prices get back to more affordable levels, buyers return in droves. It’s nice to see we are getting back to a more normal market in portions of the county where prices are more reflective of value. I would expect this trend to continue albeit more slowly in the higher priced areas where prices are stickier (Is that a word?) on the way down.
Before you know it, we’ll be back to the good old days when selling or buying RE was truly based upon need and financial wherewithal. Nothing here suggests a spike in prices but I do believe we have hit the bottom as measured by sales volume.
Wow. Those two lists
Wow. Those two lists contrast like black and white. The top sales list is in “less desirable” areas while the bottom-of-the-bottom list is Del Mar, RSF, and the like. Not so immune I reckon.
I’m surprised that Mira Mesa is only 7th on the top list. There’s been a load of activity up in here.
WTF is Encanto and Nestor?
I keep hearing that sales are
I keep hearing that sales are up big, and I understand sales are up big in some Zip Codes, but overall aren’t SD home sales still lower YOY when you compare May to May?
The Daily Transcript recently reported sales up 4%, but a day or so later the UT reported sales down 4%, and today the UT is reporting sales down 12%.
pencilneck, does it really
pencilneck, does it really matter what the countywide number is? We buy house in a particular area, so how that area changes is much more appropriate/useful info than how the county is change. If you only look at the county #, you might miss the bottom in some area and be too early on others.
I am just not seeing the kind
I am just not seeing the kind of declines reported in South OC. Is this market different? Properties priced in the 500s 2 years ago are still priced the same.
Rich wrote another fantastic
Rich wrote another fantastic article. But while sales are way up in selected Zip Codes, the title “Prices Way Down, Sales Way Up” sounded a little misleading to me. The title could have as easily been “Sales way down, Prices down slighly” had focused on the other set of Zip Codes.
I wouldn’t have even mentioned it except that I’ve seen several similarly upbeat headlines recently at other publications, which I don’t think the data substantiates yet.
pencilneck wrote:Rich wrote
[quote=pencilneck]Rich wrote another fantastic article. But while sales are way up in selected Zip Codes, the title “Prices Way Down, Sales Way Up” sounded a little misleading to me. The title could have as easily been “Sales way down, Prices down slighly” had focused on the other set of Zip Codes.
I wouldn’t have even mentioned it except that I’ve seen several similarly upbeat headlines recently at other publications, which I don’t think the data substantiates yet.
[/quote]
Well, that’s a first. 😀
The idea was to say that sales are way up where prices are way down. I could have worded it better I guess.
Rich
I would love to see this
I would love to see this information on a 3 month moving average (March to May 2008 vs. March to May 2007)… If this was generated on a monthly basis it could be a good indication of when it is “safe to buy” in certain areas.
hnordlin, this is a good idea
hnordlin, this is a good idea and I agree it would be interesting. Unfortunately it would be pretty time consuming to pull all that data together and I probably won’t have time to do it in the forseeable future. If anyone wants to take a crack, all the data is here:
http://realestate.signonsandiego.com/area_homesales/index.php