Up to ~17,000 (+/- 500 pts) Up to ~17,000 (+/- 500 pts) by May 2014, if not earlier. Down below 12,000 by the end of 2014.
spdrun
December 26, 2013 @
6:58 AM
^^ Here’s hoping (for the ^^ Here’s hoping (for the second part anyway)!
scaredyclassic
December 26, 2013 @
11:18 AM
Bitcoins, butter and beer. Bitcoins, butter and beer. And bubblegum. And beretta guns.
CA renter
December 27, 2014 @
2:28 AM
Well, I was certainly wrong! Well, I was certainly wrong!
Congrats to those who were right! 🙂
Coronita
December 26, 2013 @
7:02 PM
I predict yellen will
I predict yellen will continue more or less the same as bernanke or greenspan or both.
And I predict people holding onto cash in the majority will continue to get punished for it
spdrun
December 27, 2013 @
4:23 AM
Even Greenspan couldn’t Even Greenspan couldn’t prevent the lovely little crashy-smashy that happened with the .coms and NASDAQ in 2000-2001 🙂
Reality
December 26, 2013 @
7:51 PM
tank tank
The-Shoveler
December 27, 2013 @
6:34 AM
I think flu will win the best I think flu will win the best prediction again next year IMO.
We are going into 2014 on a train with a full load of coal and a full head of stream.
(If I am not mistaken December 2013 was on pace hit a sales record for new cars, I good sign IMO).
The fed was more into popping the 2000 tech bubble than preventing the collapse IMO.
livinincali
December 27, 2013 @
8:58 AM
The-Shoveler wrote:I think [quote=The-Shoveler]I think flu will win the best prediction again next year IMO.
We are going into 2014 on a train with a full load of coal and a full head of stream.
(If I am not mistaken December 2013 was on pace hit a sales record for new cars, I good sign IMO).
The fed was more into popping the 2000 tech bubble than preventing the collapse IMO.[/quote]
It always easy to make a prediction that what’s happened in the previous 6 months or a year will continue to happen. It’s extremely difficult to predict when a crash will occur, but it’s not too hard to predict a crash will occur. Anytime leverage expands into assets prices faster than the growth of the economy a crash is going to occur. You just don’t when. I expect a crash to start from an external force (Europe/China), so we probably have some time here. I expect to be hearing about the decoupling myth sometime in 2014.
Coronita
December 27, 2013 @
9:58 AM
livinincali [quote=livinincali][quote=The-Shoveler]I think flu will win the best prediction again next year IMO.
We are going into 2014 on a train with a full load of coal and a full head of stream.
(If I am not mistaken December 2013 was on pace hit a sales record for new cars, I good sign IMO).
The fed was more into popping the 2000 tech bubble than preventing the collapse IMO.[/quote]
It always easy to make a prediction that what’s happened in the previous 6 months or a year will continue to happen. It’s extremely difficult to predict when a crash will occur, but it’s not too hard to predict a crash will occur. Anytime leverage expands into assets prices faster than the growth of the economy a crash is going to occur. You just don’t when. I expect a crash to start from an external force (Europe/China), so we probably have some time here. I expect to be hearing about the decoupling myth sometime in 2014.[/quote]
I predict everyone will die eventually 🙂
an
December 27, 2013 @
10:19 AM
flu wrote:livinincali [quote=flu][quote=livinincali][quote=The-Shoveler]I think flu will win the best prediction again next year IMO.
We are going into 2014 on a train with a full load of coal and a full head of stream.
(If I am not mistaken December 2013 was on pace hit a sales record for new cars, I good sign IMO).
The fed was more into popping the 2000 tech bubble than preventing the collapse IMO.[/quote]
It always easy to make a prediction that what’s happened in the previous 6 months or a year will continue to happen. It’s extremely difficult to predict when a crash will occur, but it’s not too hard to predict a crash will occur. Anytime leverage expands into assets prices faster than the growth of the economy a crash is going to occur. You just don’t when. I expect a crash to start from an external force (Europe/China), so we probably have some time here. I expect to be hearing about the decoupling myth sometime in 2014.[/quote]
I predict everyone will die eventually :)[/quote]Broken clock is right twice a day. I’m with you on your prediction flu. We’ll see a vibrant 2014. I don’t see anything that will derail the DOW next year.
moneymaker
December 27, 2013 @
9:18 PM
I think we are in a bubble of I think we are in a bubble of sorts right now. DOW in the 13,000’s in Dec 2014. Between now and then it will most likely go up some. Most of the working class are spending more than they should, I’ll include myself in that group, it will come back around to bite them in the butt when the rich continue to hold onto their money instead of investing it. Reminds me of Hunger Games, hopefully this does not happen, but that is my 2 cents.
no_such_reality
December 27, 2013 @
10:24 AM
livinincali wrote:
It always [quote=livinincali]
It always easy to make a prediction that what’s happened in the previous 6 months or a year will continue to happen. It’s extremely difficult to predict when a crash will occur, but it’s not too hard to predict a crash will occur. Anytime leverage expands into assets prices faster than the growth of the economy a crash is going to occur. You just don’t when. I expect a crash to start from an external force (Europe/China), so we probably have some time here. I expect to be hearing about the decoupling myth sometime in 2014.[/quote]
We will continue our current trajectory with the economy unless we have a swan event.
The systemic dysfunctions in the economy have mitigating factors managing them and the global economy is stagnant enough the global printing of cash isn’t going to significantly change the near term inflationary pressures.
No economies are notably firing on all cylinders and anywhere near over heating. Incremental improvements in key commodities continue outpace sluggish economic growth so we won’t slowly strangle any growth.
Even our incredibly entrenched and ideological Congress has managed to piece together a deal that eliminates further sequestration cuts and prevents another government shutdown.
The single biggest threat to business in 2014 is ironically, that they start hiring people. Recent polls show 90% of currently people plan on actively seeking new employment. If business start any meaningful hiring, they run the risk of creating a giant domino effect of turnover.
Quazi-swan events that would disrupt the markets would include Iran testing a nuke, North Korea powershift, bird flu pandemic/SARS type scare coming out of China, any major assassination.
spdrun
December 28, 2013 @
6:12 AM
Quazi-swan events that would
Quazi-swan events that would disrupt the markets would include… … …
Well then, here’s hoping for some flyin’ swans in 2014 🙂 Or is it “swoons?”
flyer
December 28, 2013 @
3:25 PM
Per this discussion, the Per this discussion, the article below indicates the number of millionaires in the US is increasing–still less than 5% of the US population–which isn’t too impressive. The challenge is to maintain that status for the long-term.
Jeez, just follow the lead of Jeez, just follow the lead of Zimbabwe, and we can all be quadrillionaires.
Coronita
December 27, 2013 @
3:48 PM
I think 2014 will be a great I think 2014 will be a great year for folks continuing to accumulate assets. I think we will see a resurgence of people spending at or above their means.
Maybe not huge gains, but decent gains.
I think folks counting on a 2014 economic collapse are going to be disappointed.
We are closing 2013 with a pretty big bang. So far, those predictions about tapering crashing the markets haven’t materialized.
We’ve seen mortgage interest rise close to 1%, and those predictions of a resulting huge housing crash haven’t materialized.
Also, I think those predictions of a trashed holiday sales are going to be wrong too…at least for e-tailers. Afterall, didn’t UPS just botch up their Xmas delivery because they exceeded their delivery capacity?
UCGal
December 30, 2013 @
1:04 PM
flu wrote:I think 2014 will [quote=flu]I think 2014 will be a great year for folks continuing to accumulate assets. I think we will see a resurgence of people spending at or above their means.
Maybe not huge gains, but decent gains.
I think folks counting on a 2014 economic collapse are going to be disappointed.
We are closing 2013 with a pretty big bang. So far, those predictions about tapering crashing the markets haven’t materialized.
We’ve seen mortgage interest rise close to 1%, and those predictions of a resulting huge housing crash haven’t materialized.
Also, I think those predictions of a trashed holiday sales are going to be wrong too…at least for e-tailers. Afterall, didn’t UPS just botch up their Xmas delivery because they exceeded their delivery capacity?[/quote]
I agree with all of this.
I’m already seeing signs of the first one. I get very surprised to see folks living way beyond what their paycheck will support.
I was surprised 2014 is going to close out much better than I expected….So I guess I was being relatively pessimistic and at some bad contrarian bets short lived…Oh well, can’t win them all.
Those that predicted new car sales would take off. Spot on.
livinincali
December 26, 2014 @
7:03 AM
DOW is up 9.1% for the year DOW is up 9.1% for the year and it’s over 18K. I guess almost everybody in the poll was right.
By December 2014 Dow is over 18,000 – 32%
Dow Ends 2014 up around 10% (or less) from December 2013 — 44%
December 26, 2013 @ 12:15 AM
Nominally
Nominally
December 26, 2013 @ 3:00 AM
Up to ~17,000 (+/- 500 pts)
Up to ~17,000 (+/- 500 pts) by May 2014, if not earlier. Down below 12,000 by the end of 2014.
December 26, 2013 @ 6:58 AM
^^ Here’s hoping (for the
^^ Here’s hoping (for the second part anyway)!
December 26, 2013 @ 11:18 AM
Bitcoins, butter and beer.
Bitcoins, butter and beer. And bubblegum. And beretta guns.
December 27, 2014 @ 2:28 AM
Well, I was certainly wrong!
Well, I was certainly wrong!
Congrats to those who were right! 🙂
December 26, 2013 @ 7:02 PM
I predict yellen will
I predict yellen will continue more or less the same as bernanke or greenspan or both.
And I predict people holding onto cash in the majority will continue to get punished for it
December 27, 2013 @ 4:23 AM
Even Greenspan couldn’t
Even Greenspan couldn’t prevent the lovely little crashy-smashy that happened with the .coms and NASDAQ in 2000-2001 🙂
December 26, 2013 @ 7:51 PM
tank
tank
December 27, 2013 @ 6:34 AM
I think flu will win the best
I think flu will win the best prediction again next year IMO.
We are going into 2014 on a train with a full load of coal and a full head of stream.
(If I am not mistaken December 2013 was on pace hit a sales record for new cars, I good sign IMO).
The fed was more into popping the 2000 tech bubble than preventing the collapse IMO.
December 27, 2013 @ 8:58 AM
The-Shoveler wrote:I think
[quote=The-Shoveler]I think flu will win the best prediction again next year IMO.
We are going into 2014 on a train with a full load of coal and a full head of stream.
(If I am not mistaken December 2013 was on pace hit a sales record for new cars, I good sign IMO).
The fed was more into popping the 2000 tech bubble than preventing the collapse IMO.[/quote]
It always easy to make a prediction that what’s happened in the previous 6 months or a year will continue to happen. It’s extremely difficult to predict when a crash will occur, but it’s not too hard to predict a crash will occur. Anytime leverage expands into assets prices faster than the growth of the economy a crash is going to occur. You just don’t when. I expect a crash to start from an external force (Europe/China), so we probably have some time here. I expect to be hearing about the decoupling myth sometime in 2014.
December 27, 2013 @ 9:58 AM
livinincali
[quote=livinincali][quote=The-Shoveler]I think flu will win the best prediction again next year IMO.
We are going into 2014 on a train with a full load of coal and a full head of stream.
(If I am not mistaken December 2013 was on pace hit a sales record for new cars, I good sign IMO).
The fed was more into popping the 2000 tech bubble than preventing the collapse IMO.[/quote]
It always easy to make a prediction that what’s happened in the previous 6 months or a year will continue to happen. It’s extremely difficult to predict when a crash will occur, but it’s not too hard to predict a crash will occur. Anytime leverage expands into assets prices faster than the growth of the economy a crash is going to occur. You just don’t when. I expect a crash to start from an external force (Europe/China), so we probably have some time here. I expect to be hearing about the decoupling myth sometime in 2014.[/quote]
I predict everyone will die eventually 🙂
December 27, 2013 @ 10:19 AM
flu wrote:livinincali
[quote=flu][quote=livinincali][quote=The-Shoveler]I think flu will win the best prediction again next year IMO.
We are going into 2014 on a train with a full load of coal and a full head of stream.
(If I am not mistaken December 2013 was on pace hit a sales record for new cars, I good sign IMO).
The fed was more into popping the 2000 tech bubble than preventing the collapse IMO.[/quote]
It always easy to make a prediction that what’s happened in the previous 6 months or a year will continue to happen. It’s extremely difficult to predict when a crash will occur, but it’s not too hard to predict a crash will occur. Anytime leverage expands into assets prices faster than the growth of the economy a crash is going to occur. You just don’t when. I expect a crash to start from an external force (Europe/China), so we probably have some time here. I expect to be hearing about the decoupling myth sometime in 2014.[/quote]
I predict everyone will die eventually :)[/quote]Broken clock is right twice a day. I’m with you on your prediction flu. We’ll see a vibrant 2014. I don’t see anything that will derail the DOW next year.
December 27, 2013 @ 9:18 PM
I think we are in a bubble of
I think we are in a bubble of sorts right now. DOW in the 13,000’s in Dec 2014. Between now and then it will most likely go up some. Most of the working class are spending more than they should, I’ll include myself in that group, it will come back around to bite them in the butt when the rich continue to hold onto their money instead of investing it. Reminds me of Hunger Games, hopefully this does not happen, but that is my 2 cents.
December 27, 2013 @ 10:24 AM
livinincali wrote:
It always
[quote=livinincali]
It always easy to make a prediction that what’s happened in the previous 6 months or a year will continue to happen. It’s extremely difficult to predict when a crash will occur, but it’s not too hard to predict a crash will occur. Anytime leverage expands into assets prices faster than the growth of the economy a crash is going to occur. You just don’t when. I expect a crash to start from an external force (Europe/China), so we probably have some time here. I expect to be hearing about the decoupling myth sometime in 2014.[/quote]
We will continue our current trajectory with the economy unless we have a swan event.
The systemic dysfunctions in the economy have mitigating factors managing them and the global economy is stagnant enough the global printing of cash isn’t going to significantly change the near term inflationary pressures.
No economies are notably firing on all cylinders and anywhere near over heating. Incremental improvements in key commodities continue outpace sluggish economic growth so we won’t slowly strangle any growth.
Even our incredibly entrenched and ideological Congress has managed to piece together a deal that eliminates further sequestration cuts and prevents another government shutdown.
The single biggest threat to business in 2014 is ironically, that they start hiring people. Recent polls show 90% of currently people plan on actively seeking new employment. If business start any meaningful hiring, they run the risk of creating a giant domino effect of turnover.
Quazi-swan events that would disrupt the markets would include Iran testing a nuke, North Korea powershift, bird flu pandemic/SARS type scare coming out of China, any major assassination.
December 28, 2013 @ 6:12 AM
Quazi-swan events that would
Well then, here’s hoping for some flyin’ swans in 2014 🙂 Or is it “swoons?”
December 28, 2013 @ 3:25 PM
Per this discussion, the
Per this discussion, the article below indicates the number of millionaires in the US is increasing–still less than 5% of the US population–which isn’t too impressive. The challenge is to maintain that status for the long-term.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/us-minting-lions-share-worlds-millionaires-8C11369480
December 28, 2013 @ 9:24 PM
Jeez, just follow the lead of
Jeez, just follow the lead of Zimbabwe, and we can all be quadrillionaires.
December 27, 2013 @ 3:48 PM
I think 2014 will be a great
I think 2014 will be a great year for folks continuing to accumulate assets. I think we will see a resurgence of people spending at or above their means.
Maybe not huge gains, but decent gains.
I think folks counting on a 2014 economic collapse are going to be disappointed.
We are closing 2013 with a pretty big bang. So far, those predictions about tapering crashing the markets haven’t materialized.
We’ve seen mortgage interest rise close to 1%, and those predictions of a resulting huge housing crash haven’t materialized.
Also, I think those predictions of a trashed holiday sales are going to be wrong too…at least for e-tailers. Afterall, didn’t UPS just botch up their Xmas delivery because they exceeded their delivery capacity?
December 30, 2013 @ 1:04 PM
flu wrote:I think 2014 will
[quote=flu]I think 2014 will be a great year for folks continuing to accumulate assets. I think we will see a resurgence of people spending at or above their means.
Maybe not huge gains, but decent gains.
I think folks counting on a 2014 economic collapse are going to be disappointed.
We are closing 2013 with a pretty big bang. So far, those predictions about tapering crashing the markets haven’t materialized.
We’ve seen mortgage interest rise close to 1%, and those predictions of a resulting huge housing crash haven’t materialized.
Also, I think those predictions of a trashed holiday sales are going to be wrong too…at least for e-tailers. Afterall, didn’t UPS just botch up their Xmas delivery because they exceeded their delivery capacity?[/quote]
I agree with all of this.
I’m already seeing signs of the first one. I get very surprised to see folks living way beyond what their paycheck will support.
December 26, 2014 @ 6:41 AM
Bump…. Happy Holidays
Bump…. Happy Holidays everyone.
I was surprised 2014 is going to close out much better than I expected….So I guess I was being relatively pessimistic and at some bad contrarian bets short lived…Oh well, can’t win them all.
Those that predicted new car sales would take off. Spot on.
December 26, 2014 @ 7:03 AM
DOW is up 9.1% for the year
DOW is up 9.1% for the year and it’s over 18K. I guess almost everybody in the poll was right.
By December 2014 Dow is over 18,000 – 32%
Dow Ends 2014 up around 10% (or less) from December 2013 — 44%
76% of the people got it right.