Lets see how prescient the Lets see how prescient the Piggs are.
It’s early enough that anything can happen. Let’s see how well people can feel the pulse of the nation.
BTW, you should answer what you really believe, not what you want to happen.
briansd1
April 15, 2010 @
4:52 PM
I’m going to go out on a limb I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that the Dow passes 12,000 on the way to 13,000. The new iPhone will come out with a splash of excitement in June. Then the Windows 7 Phone gets released for more excitement in the tech sector.
And the Democrats retain pretty much their existing majority in Congress.
Time will tell….
Eugene
April 15, 2010 @
5:30 PM
I predict a 54/46 Democratic I predict a 54/46 Democratic majority in the Senate and a tie in the House.
desmond
April 15, 2010 @
7:04 PM
B Ri, Make the poll a little B Ri, Make the poll a little more even, meaning instead of “The Republicans will sweep into the majority with a landslide”
Republicans win majority
That way if the R’s win majority you can’t say “well they didn’t win in a landslide”
DWCAP
April 16, 2010 @
11:06 AM
Is this national or state or Is this national or state or local? Cause I feel very confident that the democrats will retain a majority of both houses in Ca. Nationally, someone big would have to royally screw up to make the Democrats loose majority in the Senate. But the house is up for grabs in my mind. That depeneds upon the economy/mood in the fall.
Allan from Fallbrook
April 16, 2010 @
12:58 PM
DWCAP wrote:Is this national [quote=DWCAP]Is this national or state or local? Cause I feel very confident that the democrats will retain a majority of both houses in Ca. Nationally, someone big would have to royally screw up to make the Democrats loose majority in the Senate. But the house is up for grabs in my mind. That depeneds upon the economy/mood in the fall.[/quote]
DWCAP: Bingo. The name of the game is JOBS. If the economy is showing marked improvement, you’ll see that reflected in voting patterns, especially strongly contested areas where unemployment is the driving concern.
If the economy is still in the tank, watch out.
XBoxBoy
April 16, 2010 @
11:51 AM
I don’t think there are I don’t think there are enough senate seats realistically in play for the Republicans to take a majority there. (Not positive about the house, but also, I don’t think there are enough seats really in play for a republican majority to be possible).
I want to vote for the option, “The democrats get their nose badly bloodied, but they retain majority in both houses.”
Also, between now and election day, watch for a vicious, slanderous, campaign season with both parties trying to discredit the Tea Baggers. You heard it here first, 2010 election season will be the ugliest we’ve ever seen.
XBoxBoy
Eugene
April 16, 2010 @
1:19 PM
XBoxBoy wrote:I don’t think [quote=XBoxBoy]I don’t think there are enough senate seats realistically in play for the Republicans to take a majority there. (Not positive about the house, but also, I don’t think there are enough seats really in play for a republican majority to be possible).[/quote]
There are enough seats in play, but the Republican takeover is not very likely.
Republicans have 41 seats in the Senate. There are 18 Democratic seats up for reelection. Of these, at least six are in safe areas where polls currently show Democrats with double-digit leads.
So, absent a massive shift in public opinion in the next six months, Republican best-case scenario is to go from 41 to 53 seats.
sdduuuude
April 17, 2010 @
12:22 AM
I predict a party I don’t I predict a party I don’t like will win alot of seats – like 100% of them.
surveyor
April 17, 2010 @
2:02 AM
predelictions predelictions
I predict a Republican majority in both the Senate and the House.
poorgradstudent
April 18, 2010 @
12:14 PM
Given the fact only 1/3 of Given the fact only 1/3 of the senate is up for re-election and the Democrats enjoy a huge 59-41 majority (Lieberman is still essential a Dem), it’s extremely unlikely the Republicans can take the Senate, even if they have a huge Election Night 2010. 538 puts their odds at less than 10% to gain a majority (50-50 still gives the Democrats the slimmest of majorities with the VP’s tiebreaker), with the most likely scenario a 54-46 split in favor of the Democrats, meaning Republicans would pick up a net of 5 seats. Looking at individual races it’s tough counting more than 7 potential Republican pick-ups, unless you really believe Boxer is vulnerable here in California (Hint: she’s not).
The House is tougher to project. Clearly the Democrats will lose seats, as every party in power does in non-Presidential years. Voter turnout is going to be huge. Republicans are motivated. Will Democrats be? Dems still hold huge advantages in terms of voter registration and long term demographic trends. The stage of economic recovery will be a big one here. Unemployment above 10% will be terrible for the Dems, below 9% and they will likely be just fine.
In summary, I expect the Democrats to hold a slim majority in the House and a decent 54 seat majority in the Senate. Most of the Senators the Dems will lose are “Blue Dogs” and moderates, so it actually won’t really hurt their ability to get stuff done more than it does now at 59.
UCGal
April 19, 2010 @
10:57 AM
poorgradstudent wrote:Given [quote=poorgradstudent]Given the fact only 1/3 of the senate is up for re-election and the Democrats enjoy a huge 59-41 majority (Lieberman is still essential a Dem), it’s extremely unlikely the Republicans can take the Senate, even if they have a huge Election Night 2010. 538 puts their odds at less than 10% to gain a majority (50-50 still gives the Democrats the slimmest of majorities with the VP’s tiebreaker), with the most likely scenario a 54-46 split in favor of the Democrats, meaning Republicans would pick up a net of 5 seats. Looking at individual races it’s tough counting more than 7 potential Republican pick-ups, unless you really believe Boxer is vulnerable here in California (Hint: she’s not).
The House is tougher to project. Clearly the Democrats will lose seats, as every party in power does in non-Presidential years. Voter turnout is going to be huge. Republicans are motivated. Will Democrats be? Dems still hold huge advantages in terms of voter registration and long term demographic trends. The stage of economic recovery will be a big one here. Unemployment above 10% will be terrible for the Dems, below 9% and they will likely be just fine.
In summary, I expect the Democrats to hold a slim majority in the House and a decent 54 seat majority in the Senate. Most of the Senators the Dems will lose are “Blue Dogs” and moderates, so it actually won’t really hurt their ability to get stuff done more than it does now at 59.[/quote]
I have to take issue with the bit I bolded…
He spoke at the GOP convention for cripes sakes.
He campaigned for the GOP Presidential candidate against the Democratic candidate.
He recently said
“Now, all of a sudden, the momentum is with the Republicans. And that’s — thank God — that’s the way people have spoken, you know? That’s our democracy.”
He’s threatened to vote with the GOP to fillibuster. But the threat of losing his committee chair is the only thing keeping him voting for cloture.
That said – I agree with your assessment of the numbers in the house/senate. Dems will lose seats – but keep small majorities.
briansd1
April 19, 2010 @
11:07 AM
UCGal wrote:
That said – I [quote=UCGal]
That said – I agree with your assessment of the numbers in the house/senate. Dems will lose seats – but keep small majorities.[/quote]
I think that any majority is not small but big. 😉
Dick Cheney had more power because he was the tie breaking vote (among other reasons why he was powerful).
April 15, 2010 @ 2:55 PM
Lets see how prescient the
Lets see how prescient the Piggs are.
It’s early enough that anything can happen. Let’s see how well people can feel the pulse of the nation.
BTW, you should answer what you really believe, not what you want to happen.
April 15, 2010 @ 4:52 PM
I’m going to go out on a limb
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that the Dow passes 12,000 on the way to 13,000. The new iPhone will come out with a splash of excitement in June. Then the Windows 7 Phone gets released for more excitement in the tech sector.
And the Democrats retain pretty much their existing majority in Congress.
Time will tell….
April 15, 2010 @ 5:30 PM
I predict a 54/46 Democratic
I predict a 54/46 Democratic majority in the Senate and a tie in the House.
April 15, 2010 @ 7:04 PM
B Ri, Make the poll a little
B Ri, Make the poll a little more even, meaning instead of “The Republicans will sweep into the majority with a landslide”
Republicans win majority
That way if the R’s win majority you can’t say “well they didn’t win in a landslide”
April 16, 2010 @ 11:06 AM
Is this national or state or
Is this national or state or local? Cause I feel very confident that the democrats will retain a majority of both houses in Ca. Nationally, someone big would have to royally screw up to make the Democrats loose majority in the Senate. But the house is up for grabs in my mind. That depeneds upon the economy/mood in the fall.
April 16, 2010 @ 12:58 PM
DWCAP wrote:Is this national
[quote=DWCAP]Is this national or state or local? Cause I feel very confident that the democrats will retain a majority of both houses in Ca. Nationally, someone big would have to royally screw up to make the Democrats loose majority in the Senate. But the house is up for grabs in my mind. That depeneds upon the economy/mood in the fall.[/quote]
DWCAP: Bingo. The name of the game is JOBS. If the economy is showing marked improvement, you’ll see that reflected in voting patterns, especially strongly contested areas where unemployment is the driving concern.
If the economy is still in the tank, watch out.
April 16, 2010 @ 11:51 AM
I don’t think there are
I don’t think there are enough senate seats realistically in play for the Republicans to take a majority there. (Not positive about the house, but also, I don’t think there are enough seats really in play for a republican majority to be possible).
I want to vote for the option, “The democrats get their nose badly bloodied, but they retain majority in both houses.”
Also, between now and election day, watch for a vicious, slanderous, campaign season with both parties trying to discredit the Tea Baggers. You heard it here first, 2010 election season will be the ugliest we’ve ever seen.
XBoxBoy
April 16, 2010 @ 1:19 PM
XBoxBoy wrote:I don’t think
[quote=XBoxBoy]I don’t think there are enough senate seats realistically in play for the Republicans to take a majority there. (Not positive about the house, but also, I don’t think there are enough seats really in play for a republican majority to be possible).[/quote]
There are enough seats in play, but the Republican takeover is not very likely.
Republicans have 41 seats in the Senate. There are 18 Democratic seats up for reelection. Of these, at least six are in safe areas where polls currently show Democrats with double-digit leads.
So, absent a massive shift in public opinion in the next six months, Republican best-case scenario is to go from 41 to 53 seats.
April 17, 2010 @ 12:22 AM
I predict a party I don’t
I predict a party I don’t like will win alot of seats – like 100% of them.
April 17, 2010 @ 2:02 AM
predelictions
predelictions
I predict a Republican majority in both the Senate and the House.
April 18, 2010 @ 12:14 PM
Given the fact only 1/3 of
Given the fact only 1/3 of the senate is up for re-election and the Democrats enjoy a huge 59-41 majority (Lieberman is still essential a Dem), it’s extremely unlikely the Republicans can take the Senate, even if they have a huge Election Night 2010. 538 puts their odds at less than 10% to gain a majority (50-50 still gives the Democrats the slimmest of majorities with the VP’s tiebreaker), with the most likely scenario a 54-46 split in favor of the Democrats, meaning Republicans would pick up a net of 5 seats. Looking at individual races it’s tough counting more than 7 potential Republican pick-ups, unless you really believe Boxer is vulnerable here in California (Hint: she’s not).
The House is tougher to project. Clearly the Democrats will lose seats, as every party in power does in non-Presidential years. Voter turnout is going to be huge. Republicans are motivated. Will Democrats be? Dems still hold huge advantages in terms of voter registration and long term demographic trends. The stage of economic recovery will be a big one here. Unemployment above 10% will be terrible for the Dems, below 9% and they will likely be just fine.
In summary, I expect the Democrats to hold a slim majority in the House and a decent 54 seat majority in the Senate. Most of the Senators the Dems will lose are “Blue Dogs” and moderates, so it actually won’t really hurt their ability to get stuff done more than it does now at 59.
April 19, 2010 @ 10:57 AM
poorgradstudent wrote:Given
[quote=poorgradstudent]Given the fact only 1/3 of the senate is up for re-election and the Democrats enjoy a huge 59-41 majority (Lieberman is still essential a Dem), it’s extremely unlikely the Republicans can take the Senate, even if they have a huge Election Night 2010. 538 puts their odds at less than 10% to gain a majority (50-50 still gives the Democrats the slimmest of majorities with the VP’s tiebreaker), with the most likely scenario a 54-46 split in favor of the Democrats, meaning Republicans would pick up a net of 5 seats. Looking at individual races it’s tough counting more than 7 potential Republican pick-ups, unless you really believe Boxer is vulnerable here in California (Hint: she’s not).
The House is tougher to project. Clearly the Democrats will lose seats, as every party in power does in non-Presidential years. Voter turnout is going to be huge. Republicans are motivated. Will Democrats be? Dems still hold huge advantages in terms of voter registration and long term demographic trends. The stage of economic recovery will be a big one here. Unemployment above 10% will be terrible for the Dems, below 9% and they will likely be just fine.
In summary, I expect the Democrats to hold a slim majority in the House and a decent 54 seat majority in the Senate. Most of the Senators the Dems will lose are “Blue Dogs” and moderates, so it actually won’t really hurt their ability to get stuff done more than it does now at 59.[/quote]
I have to take issue with the bit I bolded…
He spoke at the GOP convention for cripes sakes.
He campaigned for the GOP Presidential candidate against the Democratic candidate.
He recently said
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/91851-lieberman-thank-god-political-momentum-now-with-gop
He’s also indicated he’ll vote and campaign for the GOP in the 2010 elections.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/independent-sen-joe-lieberman-hell-back-republicans-2010/story?id=8952240
He’s threatened to vote with the GOP to fillibuster. But the threat of losing his committee chair is the only thing keeping him voting for cloture.
That said – I agree with your assessment of the numbers in the house/senate. Dems will lose seats – but keep small majorities.
April 19, 2010 @ 11:07 AM
UCGal wrote:
That said – I
[quote=UCGal]
That said – I agree with your assessment of the numbers in the house/senate. Dems will lose seats – but keep small majorities.[/quote]
I think that any majority is not small but big. 😉
Dick Cheney had more power because he was the tie breaking vote (among other reasons why he was powerful).