Wondering what other people Wondering what other people think is the current price and sales speed premium being paid due to the relatively low volume of homes for sale compared to monthly sales.
I see the issue two-fold, one as higher demanded prices which are perceived as being the market and one in the form of expectations and reality of how fast the homes sell.
The corollary poll to this would be, how much does inventory need to increase before buyers no longer feel they need to breathlessly run around seeing homes the minute they come on the market?
NotCranky
October 30, 2013 @
6:27 PM
Big but not as big as when Big but not as big as when inventory is tight and you give loans to anyone who wants one,or two, or three……….
Jazzman
November 2, 2013 @
11:21 AM
I believe 6-8 months supply I believe 6-8 months supply is the threshold for a buyer’s market, and we’re probably well below that. The increase in mortgage rates dented demand, so even if inventory stays low you’d expect a little less frenetic buyer activity. If I was a buyer, I would be concerned right now, however. According to the Case Shiller Index, prices have increase by an annual rate of 22% to August 2013 in San Diego. That is the same rate of increase for the same period in 2004, when prices were accelerating at their fastest rate. San Diego is now back to February 2004 prices. If this continues for another year (there are signs that it probably won’t), then you might question whether the mortgage conveyor belt that was oiled by collateralized loans was actually to blame for the bubble. Supply seems to be doing the dirty work without the need for easy credit. San Diego may be a special case since home prices for the 20-city composite has not grown at the same rate. How you believe this will play out depends on where you think the inventory is hiding. Foreclosure rates are at their lowest in seven years in soCal so we can’t blame the usual suspects. Interestingly, Los Angeles is leading the way in inventory with a 20% annual increase to September 2013 (WSJ). Did 20% of home sellers, who are usually a pretty sleepy bunch, collude or collectively decide to list their homes. Me thinks not. Although the great mystery surrounding the dearth of listings has never been solved, we know that investor activity has been rampant. So will the Mini-me bubble unwind from here on, and if so, what is going to save it this time?
(former)FormerSanDiegan
October 31, 2013 @
2:17 PM
I don’t think there is a I don’t think there is a realistic way to relate a price premium specifically to limited supply.
For example, supply was more constrained in January 2013 than it is now in October, yet prices are 15% higher now than they were then. While lower supply results in increased price momentum I don;t believe there is any credible way to relate tight supply to a specific percentage price premium.
October 30, 2013 @ 10:29 AM
Wondering what other people
Wondering what other people think is the current price and sales speed premium being paid due to the relatively low volume of homes for sale compared to monthly sales.
I see the issue two-fold, one as higher demanded prices which are perceived as being the market and one in the form of expectations and reality of how fast the homes sell.
The corollary poll to this would be, how much does inventory need to increase before buyers no longer feel they need to breathlessly run around seeing homes the minute they come on the market?
October 30, 2013 @ 6:27 PM
Big but not as big as when
Big but not as big as when inventory is tight and you give loans to anyone who wants one,or two, or three……….
November 2, 2013 @ 11:21 AM
I believe 6-8 months supply
I believe 6-8 months supply is the threshold for a buyer’s market, and we’re probably well below that. The increase in mortgage rates dented demand, so even if inventory stays low you’d expect a little less frenetic buyer activity. If I was a buyer, I would be concerned right now, however. According to the Case Shiller Index, prices have increase by an annual rate of 22% to August 2013 in San Diego. That is the same rate of increase for the same period in 2004, when prices were accelerating at their fastest rate. San Diego is now back to February 2004 prices. If this continues for another year (there are signs that it probably won’t), then you might question whether the mortgage conveyor belt that was oiled by collateralized loans was actually to blame for the bubble. Supply seems to be doing the dirty work without the need for easy credit. San Diego may be a special case since home prices for the 20-city composite has not grown at the same rate. How you believe this will play out depends on where you think the inventory is hiding. Foreclosure rates are at their lowest in seven years in soCal so we can’t blame the usual suspects. Interestingly, Los Angeles is leading the way in inventory with a 20% annual increase to September 2013 (WSJ). Did 20% of home sellers, who are usually a pretty sleepy bunch, collude or collectively decide to list their homes. Me thinks not. Although the great mystery surrounding the dearth of listings has never been solved, we know that investor activity has been rampant. So will the Mini-me bubble unwind from here on, and if so, what is going to save it this time?
October 31, 2013 @ 2:17 PM
I don’t think there is a
I don’t think there is a realistic way to relate a price premium specifically to limited supply.
For example, supply was more constrained in January 2013 than it is now in October, yet prices are 15% higher now than they were then. While lower supply results in increased price momentum I don;t believe there is any credible way to relate tight supply to a specific percentage price premium.