In a somewhat gruesome milestone for the beleaguered San Diego housing market, the low-priced tier of the Case-Shiller home price index has now dropped by more than half since it peaked in June 2006.
Specifically, the low-priced index was 50.4 percent below its peak value as of February, the most recent release of the Case-Shiller index. The mid-priced tier had declined by 39.3 percent and the high-priced tier by 32.6 percent from their respective peaks. The aggregate index had fallen by 41.4 percent.
Must mean we’re at bottom
Must mean we’re at bottom (again)
I’m amazed I can almost
I’m amazed I can almost afford a “mid tier” house! The cut off keeps getting closer and closer.
San Diego housing has become
San Diego housing has become extremely affordable. if you are willing to buy in Oceanside or Chula Vista. because Case-shiller index has essentially evolved into Oceanside and Chula Vista index.
I hope more desired areas like CV, LJ etc. will be included again into CSI in the not too distant future. But by then the “SD housing price” will have rebounded alot.
Wow, I didn’t know little
Wow, I didn’t know little houses in Mira Mesa can be considered mid to high end.
Based on my own experience, I
Based on my own experience, I would say that the low end properties, ie, $350K and below, are holding firm in price throughout San Diego County for about the last month. This is primarily due to the moratoriums that started last fall which have greatly reduced supply.
But at the mid range, ie $350K-$750K, prices still have room to move downward, and the upper range, ie, $750K and above, the market continues to be slow selling, if not dead. In fact, I looked at a few properties in the $800K range that have been on the market for months…and these are coastal properties. The listing agent said he hasn’t received an offer on either property. Even with interest rates at record lows the higher range properties aren’t selling. Makes you wonder how low prices need to go before buyers start making offers.
It certainly looks like the
It certainly looks like the govt has put a floor in the housing market. Moratorium on foreclosures coupled with very low interest rate and low down payments….yeah, it’s the free market at work.
peterb wrote:It certainly
[quote=peterb]It certainly looks like the govt has put a floor in the housing market. Moratorium on foreclosures coupled with very low interest rate and low down payments….yeah, it’s the free market at work.[/quote]
Don’t forget our (taxpayers…renters who are paying to be outbid by clueless buyers) gift of $8K to all the current buyers.
Free market, indeed!
Bob wrote: Makes you wonder
[quote=Bob] Makes you wonder how low prices need to go before buyers start making offers.[/quote]
IMO declines in the higher end need to be commensurate with other tiers. Nobody wants to be paying premiums for any property in a declining market …makes no sense at all. I’d start looking when prices have bottomed by virtue of clear signs that they had just starting to move up again, or had remained flat for a consistent period. Even then, I suspect California prices are going to be expensive, or over-valued depending on which way you look at it.
qwerty
The C-S lines are all
qwerty
The C-S lines are all in alignment now. Check out the VOSD article on the link. The high increases were much lower on a percentage basis than the low end so the declines dont need to be commensurate. With that said, the declines on the higher end propertie still have some work to do while the low end seems like its work is pretty much done.
Bob… Good point about the
Bob… Good point about the “zero” offers as opposed to lack of offers.
I know a couple of agents in the coastal areas sitting on several month old listings in the 800k-1M range with no offers. Not even a low ball offer.
No offers and record low interest rates, even I’m scratching my head.
jpinpb wrote:Must mean we’re
[quote=jpinpb]Must mean we’re at bottom (again)[/quote]
well, if we are looking at Chula Vista/O’side low end, yes, we are at the bottom, or at least extremely close to it. The high demand in that segment is going to prevent further price drops. every REO that rolls out are attracting attention.
high end and beach cities, that’s another story.
if someone has the stomach to do this, this would be the best scenario financially: buy a REO in the less desireable area now. Live there for 2-3 years until the bottom on the upper tier/beach areas is finally upon us. Then buy a REO there and rent out the 1st home cash flow positive.
ocrenter wrote:jpinpb
[quote=ocrenter][quote=jpinpb]Must mean we’re at bottom (again)[/quote]
well, if we are looking at Chula Vista/O’side low end, yes, we are at the bottom, or at least extremely close to it. The high demand in that segment is going to prevent further price drops. every REO that rolls out are attracting attention.
high end and beach cities, that’s another story.
if someone has the stomach to do this, this would be the best scenario financially: buy a REO in the less desireable area now. Live there for 2-3 years until the bottom on the upper tier/beach areas is finally upon us. Then buy a REO there and rent out the 1st home cash flow positive. [/quote]
Great idea ocrenter, That is what I suggested to the nice pigg who bought in Rancho Santa Fe a year or two back. I hope he never ends up wishing that he took that advice.
Wow, I didn’t know little
Wow, I didn’t know little houses in Mira Mesa can be considered mid to high end.
That may have been sarcastic, but since the CS high tier is now $409K, it doesn’t accurately reflect only the high-end San Diego properties. One of the issues with the tiering in the CS index, is it’s based on the mix of homes sold that month. In this case sales are so skewed towards the low end, that the top 1/3 of houses sold start at $409K.
This isn’t a problem when looking at the CS index as a whole, since it’s a number based on same home sales. However, it seems that heavy activity on the low end, and low activity on the high-end is obscuring the tiers a bit.
Tiers of a clown… It’s all
Tiers of a clown… It’s all about the low-end thanks to Uncle Sam or Ben.