Thanks for the graphs, Rich. I think the more interesting story is getting lost in the aggregate data. September’s numbers show a striking divergence with detached prices are up 7% YoY while attached prices are flat and attached sales fell nearly 22%, versus 11% for detached.
This brings me back to a point I raised last May about rising insurance premiums, HOA fees, and reserve shortfalls disproportionately pressuring the attached market. San Diego insurance costs are up roughly 12% YoY, and special assessments to cover insurance increases are becoming a real concern. I personally know someone who’s already been hit and will likely be again next year as the HOA is hamstrung by existing policy and differing views in the community about coverages. This is probably more common than not. As a result I think we are seeing two very different markets of equity-rich detached homeowners insulated by constrained supply and more price-sensitive condo and townhome buyers facing unpredictably escalating carrying costs.
I’d love to see condos, townhomes, and SFHs broken out separately or even better would be a comparison of properties with and without substantial HOA dues. The divergence may tell us considerably more than the headline numbers.
Fair point. Those numbers aren’t from Rich’s graphs. They’re from the NSDC HomeDex report, which breaks out detached and attached properties separately.
These are monthly median sale prices, so not directly comparable to Rich’s price indices. My broader point is that the attached and detached markets appear to be behaving differently, and rising insurance and HOA costs may help explain why
Thanks. Anecdotally I agree with you, one of my friends with a condo in downtown LJ was hit with a 25k special assessment last year to fix old wiring in the building, another friend in that area this year was hit with a whopping 100k…There are a lot of old condos in SD with huge bills for decades of deferred maintenance competing with a large supply of newly built MFH.
Yes that’s interesting and your explanation seems plausible. I have it on my list to put together some info on condos vs. sfh… not much free time these days but I will hopefully get to it soon. 🙂
Thanks for the graphs, Rich. I think the more interesting story is getting lost in the aggregate data. September’s numbers show a striking divergence with detached prices are up 7% YoY while attached prices are flat and attached sales fell nearly 22%, versus 11% for detached.
This brings me back to a point I raised last May about rising insurance premiums, HOA fees, and reserve shortfalls disproportionately pressuring the attached market. San Diego insurance costs are up roughly 12% YoY, and special assessments to cover insurance increases are becoming a real concern. I personally know someone who’s already been hit and will likely be again next year as the HOA is hamstrung by existing policy and differing views in the community about coverages. This is probably more common than not. As a result I think we are seeing two very different markets of equity-rich detached homeowners insulated by constrained supply and more price-sensitive condo and townhome buyers facing unpredictably escalating carrying costs.
I’d love to see condos, townhomes, and SFHs broken out separately or even better would be a comparison of properties with and without substantial HOA dues. The divergence may tell us considerably more than the headline numbers.
this site tracks exclusively detached SFH, curious where your 7% YOY vs 2% is coming from
Fair point. Those numbers aren’t from Rich’s graphs. They’re from the NSDC HomeDex report, which breaks out detached and attached properties separately.
These are monthly median sale prices, so not directly comparable to Rich’s price indices. My broader point is that the attached and detached markets appear to be behaving differently, and rising insurance and HOA costs may help explain why
Thanks. Anecdotally I agree with you, one of my friends with a condo in downtown LJ was hit with a 25k special assessment last year to fix old wiring in the building, another friend in that area this year was hit with a whopping 100k…There are a lot of old condos in SD with huge bills for decades of deferred maintenance competing with a large supply of newly built MFH.
Yes that’s interesting and your explanation seems plausible. I have it on my list to put together some info on condos vs. sfh… not much free time these days but I will hopefully get to it soon. 🙂