Some September housing data and commentary is up at voiceofsandiego.org. The most interesting action last month took place in the single family home median price, which dropped precipitously as round 2 of the credit crunch hit the creditworthy buyers, thus removing (or beginning to remove) the statistical fluke that many observers confused for a sign of stable prices.
Many more charts to come in the next couple of days.
Rich,
I participate in a
Rich,
I participate in a monthly survey by BofA on the national housing market. In return for my participation, they forward a copy of the report to me. I just got the Spetember report. I dont know if you have access to this. If you don’t, would you like me to forward you a copy each month?
sdr
Only if it tells us what we
Only if it tells us what we want to hear;)
Just kidding.
LBC
Sure, sdr, I would be
Sure, sdr, I would be interested in seeing the report if it’s no trouble to forward it along to [email protected].
Thanks!
Rich
Rich,
Just a suggestion.
Rich,
Just a suggestion. Could you overlay the Case-Shiller HPI (from the previous graph) with the median P/SQFT data (this graph) in the future (if it’s not too much trouble, that is). I’m curious to see (more directly than glancing back and forth at each of them) how all of these various metrics are tracking. If it’s too much work, don’t bother (obviously). I just thought it would be easy for a graph master like yourself. Finally it looks like there’s a little more traction to the downside, regardless of which metrics are being reported.
Hola davelj — Here it
Hola davelj — Here it is:
The Case Shiller number is only available up til July.
Basically the median pr/sqft directionally tracked the HPI quite well until the subprime tightening, at which time the pr/sqft started heading up even though the HPI continued down.
In recent months, the pr/sqft has headed down again; I suspect that the directional correlation may resume now that the credit crunch is hitting everyone and not just subprime borrowers.
rich
Holy Schnikey that was fast.
Holy Schnikey that was fast. Good work, Sr. Piggington. I thought you probably had done that graph previously.
Just out of curiosity, if you were a betting man, what do you think would be the effect of “seller/closing incentives,” etc. that don’t show up in the sales prices? Another 2%-3%… or more? My guess is that it’s probably a bordering-on-material number, like 3% or something. As we all know, sellers weren’t offering any incentives at the peak; now they’re pretty normal.
By the way, we’re overdue for lunch. I’m in town all of next week. Shoot me an email if you’re free.
My guess would have been
My guess would have been around the 2-3% range as well, but it really is just a wild guess on my part. The realtors on the board would probably have a better idea — anyone want to chime in?
Rich
Its really impossible to put
Its really impossible to put a number on it. All sales dont have incentives and some sales prices are actually under reported though it is far less common. I know of someone that recently purchased a custom home who paid the builder about $400,000 in cash outside of escrow for upgrades and landscaping so the price will actually record well below the actual total sale price. This happens or at least used to happen regularly with high end tract homes in my area also.
FYI: I sent the research report about an hour ago.
Resale incentives I have
Resale incentives I have been involved have 1-2% routinely.
SD Realtor