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zk
ParticipantPardee’s interval between phase releases over the past few years in CV has generally been 6-8 weeks.
For their new Ridge at Saratoga development, which they’ve already pushed up 2 years from the original start date, will have phase releases (at least to start) every 2 weeks!
A friend of mine asked the agents at Pardee why the big rush. He said, “Pacific Highlands Ranch (a nearby collection of subdivisions in Carmel Valley) isn’t doing well, and therefore their profits aren’t where they want them to be and i guess they think they can salvage this year by selling all of these empty lots now, as saratogas.”
Now, this sounds like a huge load of BS to me. Why are profits this year more important than how they do in 2008? And it probably is BS; obviously they’re not going to say “we’re selling now because we think they’ll be real tough to sell in 2008 because the market will probably be much softer then, and we won’t be able to get as much for them then.”
But then, I don’t really know how these things work. If anybody more familiar with such things can tell me if there’s any validity to their story (or if there’s not), I’d appreciate it.
ParticipantYes.
ParticipantThanks for the info, sdr.
I’m curious why I’m not reading anything about all the whacky loans that people have needed to afford these houses. Do you know whether that was brought up at all? Because I don’t think any discussion of the SD RE market is even relevant, let alone complete, unless it includes an in-depth look at the lending situation.
Also, Alan Gin has always struck me as a permabull. He’s usually called “USD professor,” but he teaches at the real estate institute there, and I’m suspicious of his motivation. I could be totally wrong about that, but he does always seem to focus on the positive aspects of the market and leave out the negative.
Participant“there is such diversity that more often than not, rude behavior and disorder is bred.”
Surely you’re not suggesting that diversity breeds rude behavior and disorder. Are you? As far as I’d be able to tell, diversity wouldn’t really be capable of breeding rude behavior and disorder unless it was combined with intolerance.
“Needless to say, I would not recommend this area to live in.”
Why, exactly, is that? You’re not saying that the illegals are connected to the crime, and the crime rate is lower there than in most places. So yes, apparently you do need to say. Why wouldn’t you recommend this area?
ParticipantMy situation is exactly the same as yours, PS. We sold our house last year. We’re renting, and we’re planning on buying when we think the time is right. (That wasn’t the plan when we sold, but once we were out of the market, we didn’t think getting back in at today’s prices would be a good move.) As I’ve said a few times here, I think prices will drop substantially in the next few years, and our only difference on that issue is our level of certainty. I’m actually somewhat apprehensive about it.
I am in no way connected with the RE industry. In fact, they generally disgust me with their misleading of people about the market and their maneuvering to keep their stranglehold on their commission system (primarily the fact that most realtors won’t show a property unless at least a 2.5% commission is offered. To me that is at the very least extremely unethical). So if I appear in any way to be taking their side, it’s not because I’m on their side, it’s because I try as hard as I can to see both sides of any issue. Even if the other side of this issue scares the heck out of me (prices keep going up while I’m renting).
Any news/info you can bring back from the meeting this morning would be greatly appreciated by us all, I’m sure. Looking forward to that.
Participant“I found this downturn easy to time. Very easy.”
Well, I wouldn’t be counting my chickens just yet. I agree that prices will probably go down substantially. But I haven’t declared myself victorious in my timing quite yet.
And even if you did time it perfectly, being right once doesn’t mean that you’ll be right again. It’s a very complex situation that I don’t think can be boiled down to 4 factors. Again, we’ll see.
For every David J. Decker and George G. Sheldon there are a couple economists (ones not in, on the periphery of, or connected in any way to the real estate profession, and therefore theoretically unbiased) who don’t see a coming crash in real estate. So I have trouble looking at their theories and completely buying into them without any skepticism. I wish I had your freedom from doubt, but I don’t.
ParticipantI whole-heartedly disagree that timing the bottom is easy. I think it’s a lot more complicated than when those 4 items reach a certain point. If you only look at those factors, there are bound to be at least a few false starts – times when those numbers start to turn around only to fall back again. I guess we’ll see.
ParticipantMy guess to hit bottom is also in the 5-8 years range. But if you look at the last cycle, even though it took 7(?) years to hit bottom, most of the fall in prices came in the first 4-5 years. I could be wrong about that, but that’s what I see when I look at the graphs and what not.
Perhaps, if that scenario repeats itself, it might (depending on your situation) not be worth waiting out those last couple years before you buy. Of course, at that point, the psychology of the market (assuming prices do drop fairly significantly) will probably be “don’t buy a house; you’ll lose money.” And timing the bottom of the market is as hard as timing the top of the market, so you won’t know for sure what the future holds. So it’ll be scary buying a house then. But not, if you ask me, as scary as buying one now.
ParticipantAmen, Bugs.
ParticipantCan’t we all just get along.
Whodathunk, Rodney King is the owner of one of the great quotes in history.
In a phenomenally economical six words he sums up most of human history.
ParticipantPowayseller, I’m not sure what you mean by “didn’t seem fair to zk.” Since I didn’t even read it or comment on it, I assume that you didn’t mean that you think that I found it unfair. I figure you meant that it seemed to you to be unfair to me.
Thanks, I truly appreciate the sentiment. But I wasn’t offended by that, nor have I been offended by anything that’s been said on this blog. I’m all for hearing data no matter how it’s presented. I’ll separate the wheat from the chaff, the noise from the data, the real from the fake. If a guy thinks he’s jabbing me, fine. If a guy wants to put down CV, fine. That’s just less competition for a house when I decide to buy again in a few years. Not that seniormoment was doing those things. Just a general point. I think perhaps most of us could do a bit better at ignoring the jabs and focusing on the information.
ParticipantIt’s kinda funny. I learned long ago not to get between people in this type of situation in real life. For some whacky reason, I thought the distance and impersonalness of a blog would render the usual problems of sticking your nose where it doesn’t belong irrelevant. I really am a dumbass!
ParticipantWell, we’ll just have to agree to disagree on that. To me, if someone says “I’m having my best year ever,” and you say, “I don’t believe you,” what you’re saying is “I believe what you’re saying isn’t true.” Which to me is the same as “you’re lying.” I don’t see what numbers have to do with it.
If your and lostkitty’s posts are any indication, I may be in the minority on that opinion. I’d like it if someone could point out to me how what PS did is not calling SDR a liar. But it’s not that important to me. Getting back to discussing the real estate market and not each other seems more important to me at this point.
ParticipantSounds pretty scary. I couldn’t find the article, though. The oldest article on that page is from 3/16. Maybe the article is from before then. Do you know how I can find it?
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