[zk]

http://piggington.com/mortgages_look_to_be_headed_for_drastic_changes

For the last 5 years, it seems like every week an article like this would come out. Not on mortgages, specifically, but on something that would have a drastic effect on the housing market. Every time I’d read something like this, I’d think, “here it comes!” But, for Carmel Valley, anyway, it just never happened.

Of course, that doesn’t mean it won’t now.

[zk]

http://piggington.com/mortgages_look_to_be_headed_for_drastic_changes

For the last 5 years, it seems like every week an article like this would come out. Not on mortgages, specifically, but on something that would have a drastic effect on the housing market. Every time I’d read something like this, I’d think, “here it comes!” But, for Carmel Valley, anyway, it just never happened.

Of course, that doesn’t mean it won’t now.

[zk]

I wrote (only about a quarter jokingly) in a previous post (in May – http://piggington.com/i_finally_bought_a_house_in_carmel_valley_prices_there_will_now?page=1 )that, now that I’d bought a house, I thought that prices would head down. Here were my reasons then:
—————————————————-
1. Shadow inventory
2. Unemployment
3. Limited supply of Asians willing to pay anything for good schools (like my wife).
4. Interest rates almost have to go up from here.
5. End of tax rebates (Fed recently, CA soon).
6. Fall/Winter
7-9. A few more I can’t think of right this second.
10. MAINLY, because, after 5 years of waiting for CV prices to fall, I gave up and bought.
I’d have actually preferred to wait, but this lot was so fantastic and unique, I didn’t want to pass it up.
—————————————————
I gave up guessing how much the government will do and how much effect it will have. I’m a little less bearish on CV now than I was then. Prices seem to be holding pretty steady so far. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll continue to hold. So, I don’t know. But if they do continue to decline, I think it will probably be slowly and not by much. I waited five freaking years and they dropped very little in that time.

It’s a tough call. I mean, if you knew for sure they’d drop a total of 8% over the next three years, that’d probably be worth it. You’d save $70,000 or $80,000. But that’s probably the max it would drop. It might not drop at all. Then you’ve waited for nothing. If they go up (unlikely but possible), now you’re probably angry.

At the time (in May), if it weren’t for that one house that we wanted, I’d have waited. Now, with prices holding almost steady for yet another year, I’m not so confident that they’ll continue down. In my opinion, CV is still one of the “overvalued” areas of San Diego. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that prices will come down.

[zk]

I wrote (only about a quarter jokingly) in a previous post (in May – http://piggington.com/i_finally_bought_a_house_in_carmel_valley_prices_there_will_now?page=1 )that, now that I’d bought a house, I thought that prices would head down. Here were my reasons then:
—————————————————-
1. Shadow inventory
2. Unemployment
3. Limited supply of Asians willing to pay anything for good schools (like my wife).
4. Interest rates almost have to go up from here.
5. End of tax rebates (Fed recently, CA soon).
6. Fall/Winter
7-9. A few more I can’t think of right this second.
10. MAINLY, because, after 5 years of waiting for CV prices to fall, I gave up and bought.
I’d have actually preferred to wait, but this lot was so fantastic and unique, I didn’t want to pass it up.
—————————————————
I gave up guessing how much the government will do and how much effect it will have. I’m a little less bearish on CV now than I was then. Prices seem to be holding pretty steady so far. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll continue to hold. So, I don’t know. But if they do continue to decline, I think it will probably be slowly and not by much. I waited five freaking years and they dropped very little in that time.

It’s a tough call. I mean, if you knew for sure they’d drop a total of 8% over the next three years, that’d probably be worth it. You’d save $70,000 or $80,000. But that’s probably the max it would drop. It might not drop at all. Then you’ve waited for nothing. If they go up (unlikely but possible), now you’re probably angry.

At the time (in May), if it weren’t for that one house that we wanted, I’d have waited. Now, with prices holding almost steady for yet another year, I’m not so confident that they’ll continue down. In my opinion, CV is still one of the “overvalued” areas of San Diego. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that prices will come down.

[zk]

I wrote (only about a quarter jokingly) in a previous post (in May – http://piggington.com/i_finally_bought_a_house_in_carmel_valley_prices_there_will_now?page=1 )that, now that I’d bought a house, I thought that prices would head down. Here were my reasons then:
—————————————————-
1. Shadow inventory
2. Unemployment
3. Limited supply of Asians willing to pay anything for good schools (like my wife).
4. Interest rates almost have to go up from here.
5. End of tax rebates (Fed recently, CA soon).
6. Fall/Winter
7-9. A few more I can’t think of right this second.
10. MAINLY, because, after 5 years of waiting for CV prices to fall, I gave up and bought.
I’d have actually preferred to wait, but this lot was so fantastic and unique, I didn’t want to pass it up.
—————————————————
I gave up guessing how much the government will do and how much effect it will have. I’m a little less bearish on CV now than I was then. Prices seem to be holding pretty steady so far. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll continue to hold. So, I don’t know. But if they do continue to decline, I think it will probably be slowly and not by much. I waited five freaking years and they dropped very little in that time.

It’s a tough call. I mean, if you knew for sure they’d drop a total of 8% over the next three years, that’d probably be worth it. You’d save $70,000 or $80,000. But that’s probably the max it would drop. It might not drop at all. Then you’ve waited for nothing. If they go up (unlikely but possible), now you’re probably angry.

At the time (in May), if it weren’t for that one house that we wanted, I’d have waited. Now, with prices holding almost steady for yet another year, I’m not so confident that they’ll continue down. In my opinion, CV is still one of the “overvalued” areas of San Diego. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that prices will come down.

[zk]

I wrote (only about a quarter jokingly) in a previous post (in May – http://piggington.com/i_finally_bought_a_house_in_carmel_valley_prices_there_will_now?page=1 )that, now that I’d bought a house, I thought that prices would head down. Here were my reasons then:
—————————————————-
1. Shadow inventory
2. Unemployment
3. Limited supply of Asians willing to pay anything for good schools (like my wife).
4. Interest rates almost have to go up from here.
5. End of tax rebates (Fed recently, CA soon).
6. Fall/Winter
7-9. A few more I can’t think of right this second.
10. MAINLY, because, after 5 years of waiting for CV prices to fall, I gave up and bought.
I’d have actually preferred to wait, but this lot was so fantastic and unique, I didn’t want to pass it up.
—————————————————
I gave up guessing how much the government will do and how much effect it will have. I’m a little less bearish on CV now than I was then. Prices seem to be holding pretty steady so far. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll continue to hold. So, I don’t know. But if they do continue to decline, I think it will probably be slowly and not by much. I waited five freaking years and they dropped very little in that time.

It’s a tough call. I mean, if you knew for sure they’d drop a total of 8% over the next three years, that’d probably be worth it. You’d save $70,000 or $80,000. But that’s probably the max it would drop. It might not drop at all. Then you’ve waited for nothing. If they go up (unlikely but possible), now you’re probably angry.

At the time (in May), if it weren’t for that one house that we wanted, I’d have waited. Now, with prices holding almost steady for yet another year, I’m not so confident that they’ll continue down. In my opinion, CV is still one of the “overvalued” areas of San Diego. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that prices will come down.

[zk]

I wrote (only about a quarter jokingly) in a previous post (in May – http://piggington.com/i_finally_bought_a_house_in_carmel_valley_prices_there_will_now?page=1 )that, now that I’d bought a house, I thought that prices would head down. Here were my reasons then:
—————————————————-
1. Shadow inventory
2. Unemployment
3. Limited supply of Asians willing to pay anything for good schools (like my wife).
4. Interest rates almost have to go up from here.
5. End of tax rebates (Fed recently, CA soon).
6. Fall/Winter
7-9. A few more I can’t think of right this second.
10. MAINLY, because, after 5 years of waiting for CV prices to fall, I gave up and bought.
I’d have actually preferred to wait, but this lot was so fantastic and unique, I didn’t want to pass it up.
—————————————————
I gave up guessing how much the government will do and how much effect it will have. I’m a little less bearish on CV now than I was then. Prices seem to be holding pretty steady so far. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll continue to hold. So, I don’t know. But if they do continue to decline, I think it will probably be slowly and not by much. I waited five freaking years and they dropped very little in that time.

It’s a tough call. I mean, if you knew for sure they’d drop a total of 8% over the next three years, that’d probably be worth it. You’d save $70,000 or $80,000. But that’s probably the max it would drop. It might not drop at all. Then you’ve waited for nothing. If they go up (unlikely but possible), now you’re probably angry.

At the time (in May), if it weren’t for that one house that we wanted, I’d have waited. Now, with prices holding almost steady for yet another year, I’m not so confident that they’ll continue down. In my opinion, CV is still one of the “overvalued” areas of San Diego. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that prices will come down.

[zk]

[quote=SD Realtor]I think Scripps has some character. Not as much in the geography as in some of the neighborhoods. I think in terms of family orientation Scripps is a fantastic place. I would imagine CV is as well but have not lived there. However with Scripps where we have lived we found alot of great stuff with neighbors and families.[/quote]

By character I mean a unique atmosphere. Scripps Ranch and Carmel Valley differ from your run-of-the-mill suburban California neighborhoods in the slightest, most uninteresting ways, in my opinion.

That being said, as a place to raise a family, I like your run-of-the-mill suburban California neighborhood. We’ve found great stuff with neighbors and families, too. But, apart from maybe the Penasquitos Canyon and our proximity to the beach, there’s very little that separates it from most other California suburban areas.

[zk]

[quote=SD Realtor]I think Scripps has some character. Not as much in the geography as in some of the neighborhoods. I think in terms of family orientation Scripps is a fantastic place. I would imagine CV is as well but have not lived there. However with Scripps where we have lived we found alot of great stuff with neighbors and families.[/quote]

By character I mean a unique atmosphere. Scripps Ranch and Carmel Valley differ from your run-of-the-mill suburban California neighborhoods in the slightest, most uninteresting ways, in my opinion.

That being said, as a place to raise a family, I like your run-of-the-mill suburban California neighborhood. We’ve found great stuff with neighbors and families, too. But, apart from maybe the Penasquitos Canyon and our proximity to the beach, there’s very little that separates it from most other California suburban areas.

[zk]

[quote=SD Realtor]I think Scripps has some character. Not as much in the geography as in some of the neighborhoods. I think in terms of family orientation Scripps is a fantastic place. I would imagine CV is as well but have not lived there. However with Scripps where we have lived we found alot of great stuff with neighbors and families.[/quote]

By character I mean a unique atmosphere. Scripps Ranch and Carmel Valley differ from your run-of-the-mill suburban California neighborhoods in the slightest, most uninteresting ways, in my opinion.

That being said, as a place to raise a family, I like your run-of-the-mill suburban California neighborhood. We’ve found great stuff with neighbors and families, too. But, apart from maybe the Penasquitos Canyon and our proximity to the beach, there’s very little that separates it from most other California suburban areas.

[zk]

[quote=SD Realtor]I think Scripps has some character. Not as much in the geography as in some of the neighborhoods. I think in terms of family orientation Scripps is a fantastic place. I would imagine CV is as well but have not lived there. However with Scripps where we have lived we found alot of great stuff with neighbors and families.[/quote]

By character I mean a unique atmosphere. Scripps Ranch and Carmel Valley differ from your run-of-the-mill suburban California neighborhoods in the slightest, most uninteresting ways, in my opinion.

That being said, as a place to raise a family, I like your run-of-the-mill suburban California neighborhood. We’ve found great stuff with neighbors and families, too. But, apart from maybe the Penasquitos Canyon and our proximity to the beach, there’s very little that separates it from most other California suburban areas.

[zk]

[quote=SD Realtor]I think Scripps has some character. Not as much in the geography as in some of the neighborhoods. I think in terms of family orientation Scripps is a fantastic place. I would imagine CV is as well but have not lived there. However with Scripps where we have lived we found alot of great stuff with neighbors and families.[/quote]

By character I mean a unique atmosphere. Scripps Ranch and Carmel Valley differ from your run-of-the-mill suburban California neighborhoods in the slightest, most uninteresting ways, in my opinion.

That being said, as a place to raise a family, I like your run-of-the-mill suburban California neighborhood. We’ve found great stuff with neighbors and families, too. But, apart from maybe the Penasquitos Canyon and our proximity to the beach, there’s very little that separates it from most other California suburban areas.

[zk]

We lived in Steeplechase for the last 5 years. The houses are smaller than most of the surrounding houses (Steeplechase 2200-2600, Belmont 2700-3700, Lexington 3700-4600). Palacio Del Mar is mostly similar sized, with some smaller. So I’m not sure I’d call Steeplechase large.

They’ve held their value as well as most of Carmel Valley, which is to say quite well, and I don’t see any reason that should be different in the future.

They are a bit old for this part of Carmel Valley (mostly 10-13 years old). The house we lived in was constructed like any other Pardee home. Which is to say the construction was mediocre. Pardee saved a nickel anywhere they could.

Sage Canyon is a great school. The neighborhood is very nice with tons of families. We liked the location. Easy freeway access with no freeway noise. Great weather in the summer (low to mid ’70s most of the time). Near the beach. Near shopping.

All in all, we loved living there. As I said in a previous post, I think Scripps Ranch is a real sweet spot. The weather isn’t too hot, there are lots of families, the schools are good, and the houses are less expensive than CV. If you want to pay 15% more for slightly better schools, 8-10 degree cooler weather in the summer, a shorter drive to the beach, and, depending where you work, maybe a shorter commute, then Carmel Valley is a good spot for you.

Neither CV or SR has “character.” If you want character, you might check out Encinitas.

[zk]

We lived in Steeplechase for the last 5 years. The houses are smaller than most of the surrounding houses (Steeplechase 2200-2600, Belmont 2700-3700, Lexington 3700-4600). Palacio Del Mar is mostly similar sized, with some smaller. So I’m not sure I’d call Steeplechase large.

They’ve held their value as well as most of Carmel Valley, which is to say quite well, and I don’t see any reason that should be different in the future.

They are a bit old for this part of Carmel Valley (mostly 10-13 years old). The house we lived in was constructed like any other Pardee home. Which is to say the construction was mediocre. Pardee saved a nickel anywhere they could.

Sage Canyon is a great school. The neighborhood is very nice with tons of families. We liked the location. Easy freeway access with no freeway noise. Great weather in the summer (low to mid ’70s most of the time). Near the beach. Near shopping.

All in all, we loved living there. As I said in a previous post, I think Scripps Ranch is a real sweet spot. The weather isn’t too hot, there are lots of families, the schools are good, and the houses are less expensive than CV. If you want to pay 15% more for slightly better schools, 8-10 degree cooler weather in the summer, a shorter drive to the beach, and, depending where you work, maybe a shorter commute, then Carmel Valley is a good spot for you.

Neither CV or SR has “character.” If you want character, you might check out Encinitas.

[zk]

We lived in Steeplechase for the last 5 years. The houses are smaller than most of the surrounding houses (Steeplechase 2200-2600, Belmont 2700-3700, Lexington 3700-4600). Palacio Del Mar is mostly similar sized, with some smaller. So I’m not sure I’d call Steeplechase large.

They’ve held their value as well as most of Carmel Valley, which is to say quite well, and I don’t see any reason that should be different in the future.

They are a bit old for this part of Carmel Valley (mostly 10-13 years old). The house we lived in was constructed like any other Pardee home. Which is to say the construction was mediocre. Pardee saved a nickel anywhere they could.

Sage Canyon is a great school. The neighborhood is very nice with tons of families. We liked the location. Easy freeway access with no freeway noise. Great weather in the summer (low to mid ’70s most of the time). Near the beach. Near shopping.

All in all, we loved living there. As I said in a previous post, I think Scripps Ranch is a real sweet spot. The weather isn’t too hot, there are lots of families, the schools are good, and the houses are less expensive than CV. If you want to pay 15% more for slightly better schools, 8-10 degree cooler weather in the summer, a shorter drive to the beach, and, depending where you work, maybe a shorter commute, then Carmel Valley is a good spot for you.

Neither CV or SR has “character.” If you want character, you might check out Encinitas.

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