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zk
Participant[quote=lepetitangel]Hi Zk,
Thanks for sharing all the info.
So for canyon-backing homes, do you think I should not expect to get a “steal” unless I get real lucky? If a shortsale house (with the things you described about the house) sold for $810K, do you think the canyon-back homes should be only in the $900~$950K region as the seller is asking way more than $1M. Hopefully can hear from you what you think in terms of valuation.I’ve seen a few houses in CV that asked for $1.08~$1.1M that sold for about at least 5~10% less than asking price. Do you think in this case, a $1M price tag from $1.08M would be reasonable?
thanks.[/quote]
The only canyon-backing homes that went for those prices were in summer ’09. One went for 925k and a couple more went between 950k and 1M. In my opinion, the only way you’ll get one is if the market does the same thing this summer (or in the future) that it did in ’09. I don’t think the one on Cloverhurst asking 1079k will go for less than 1M at best. It could easily go for more than that, though. Couldn’t hurt to throw an offer in, though. You really never know.
ParticipantThe dip in ’09 came in the summer. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a similar dip this summer. If you’re not in a hurry, you might consider waiting until after the spring buying season ends. That’s probably something to consider in any market except one that’s shooting up relentlessly, which this one obviously isn’t. Of course, the buying season is also the selling season. Meaning that you might face lower inventory (less to choose from) later in the year.
So many variables, so much to consider. Again, good luck.
ParticipantThe dip in ’09 came in the summer. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a similar dip this summer. If you’re not in a hurry, you might consider waiting until after the spring buying season ends. That’s probably something to consider in any market except one that’s shooting up relentlessly, which this one obviously isn’t. Of course, the buying season is also the selling season. Meaning that you might face lower inventory (less to choose from) later in the year.
So many variables, so much to consider. Again, good luck.
ParticipantThe dip in ’09 came in the summer. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a similar dip this summer. If you’re not in a hurry, you might consider waiting until after the spring buying season ends. That’s probably something to consider in any market except one that’s shooting up relentlessly, which this one obviously isn’t. Of course, the buying season is also the selling season. Meaning that you might face lower inventory (less to choose from) later in the year.
So many variables, so much to consider. Again, good luck.
ParticipantThe dip in ’09 came in the summer. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a similar dip this summer. If you’re not in a hurry, you might consider waiting until after the spring buying season ends. That’s probably something to consider in any market except one that’s shooting up relentlessly, which this one obviously isn’t. Of course, the buying season is also the selling season. Meaning that you might face lower inventory (less to choose from) later in the year.
So many variables, so much to consider. Again, good luck.
ParticipantThe dip in ’09 came in the summer. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a similar dip this summer. If you’re not in a hurry, you might consider waiting until after the spring buying season ends. That’s probably something to consider in any market except one that’s shooting up relentlessly, which this one obviously isn’t. Of course, the buying season is also the selling season. Meaning that you might face lower inventory (less to choose from) later in the year.
So many variables, so much to consider. Again, good luck.
Participant[quote=lepetitangel]Wow ZK you really know the area very well!
I read on the forum that you finally bought something last year. Did you look into this area of CV for a long while and you finally bought something you like cuz the price just never dropped to what you had wanted?Yah…canyon-back homes. We love that feature but don’t know if that’s the only reason why they’re selling far more than the ones without the few. I guess the limited supply.[/quote]
We’ve lived in CV for about 9 years. From Feb ’05 until late 2010, we were renting and watching the market. We watched every house that came on the market and every house that sold, paying particular attention to Carmel Country Highlands (which is Steeplechase, Belmont, and Lexington). So yes, I know the area very well.
We owned from 2002-2005 and rented after that. We knew we wanted to stay in CV and we were hoping the market would drop. Since about 2007, we’d been on the “list” at Bridle Ridge (a new home community in Carmel Country Highlands), and that was always another option (besides buying an existing home). There was one lot in particular that we loved. When that home was finally for sale (in May 2010), we had the option of buying it or passing on it. It seemed pretty obvious that the market was at a government-incentive-induced mini peak, and that prices would go down after that. And that sort of did happen. But what was less knowable was how much the drop would be after the effect of the incentives wore off. As it turns out, it has dropped less than I expected so far. “So far” could be the key phrase here. We’ll see. In any case, that’s all sort of background so that I can answer your question. And the answer is that we bought this house because the lot is spectacular and unique and we really love it (and we only had one chance at it and that chance was in May ’10). Not because we didn’t think prices would drop further. If it weren’t for this house coming up for sale, we’d have waited.
As it turns out, prices didn’t drop that much, and here in Spring ’11 they seem to be kind of back near where they were in Spring ’10 . It’s kind of like after the peak in ’05. You had some houses go for peak pricing, and some go for less. You have to be careful that you’re not one who pays peak prices now that we’re not at the peak. I saw some sales over the past 5 years and I just had to think, “wow, that buyer’s realtor is not doing anything for them. There are 2 houses on the market better than that that they could’ve gotten for a hundred grand less.” I’d been in the houses, and in the comp houses, and they just plain paid too much.
One way to prevent that is to know the market. Our realtor had an automated set up where we got an email for every house that came on the market, changed price, was cancelled or withdrawn, went pending and sold. Any realtor can do that for you, and you should have yours do it for you if he isn’t already. Check some of the houses out. Notice what they sell for. Know the neighborhood. Of course, if you’re looking in lots of different neighborhoods, that can be difficult to do. But if you know the neighborhood well, you can avoid paying more than you should.
Now, with canyon-backed houses, it’s a little different. There really is a limited supply of those in this part of town. And, flu’s self-admittedly spoiled perspective notwithstanding, it does give you a nice view and a nice, open feeling, and a feeling of serenity that comes from being right on the edge of so much natural land. There are lots of people who want to live in this area and who want to live on the canyon. And they just don’t come up for sale that often (relative to the number of buyers for them). So there’s your supply and demand situation. Except for a brief period in ’09, which was a pretty good window to buy, that situation has held fairly steady.
As for the whole $400/sf discussion, 2500-2600 sf homes on the canyon did sell for $400/sf and more at the peak. And they’ve sold intermittently at that price since the peak. 3100-3500sf homes on the canyon generally sold for $370-$380/sf at the peak and intermittently since then.
As far as whether the canyon is the only reason they’re selling for far more than the ones without it… There’s always other variables. The one on Cloverhurst that sold for 810 is very dark – the back faces northeast and it backs up to a higher neighbor behind. And it has a back yard crammed with a pool. So in addition to a lack of view there’s privacy, light, and backyard issues. There’s always something. But, that said, 810k was fairly cheap for that and 1070k was pretty high for the other one. So you’ve got a not-on-the-canyon, not-super-nice home at a price that’s low even considering the problems, and an on-the-canyon house, which is a nice house with a big yard, at a price that’s high, even for such a nice house. Point being, the spread between canyon and not canyon is not usually that big.
Anyway, it’s a real nice area and I hope you find something you like. I’d be happy to try to answer any other questions you have. Good luck.
Participant[quote=lepetitangel]Wow ZK you really know the area very well!
I read on the forum that you finally bought something last year. Did you look into this area of CV for a long while and you finally bought something you like cuz the price just never dropped to what you had wanted?Yah…canyon-back homes. We love that feature but don’t know if that’s the only reason why they’re selling far more than the ones without the few. I guess the limited supply.[/quote]
We’ve lived in CV for about 9 years. From Feb ’05 until late 2010, we were renting and watching the market. We watched every house that came on the market and every house that sold, paying particular attention to Carmel Country Highlands (which is Steeplechase, Belmont, and Lexington). So yes, I know the area very well.
We owned from 2002-2005 and rented after that. We knew we wanted to stay in CV and we were hoping the market would drop. Since about 2007, we’d been on the “list” at Bridle Ridge (a new home community in Carmel Country Highlands), and that was always another option (besides buying an existing home). There was one lot in particular that we loved. When that home was finally for sale (in May 2010), we had the option of buying it or passing on it. It seemed pretty obvious that the market was at a government-incentive-induced mini peak, and that prices would go down after that. And that sort of did happen. But what was less knowable was how much the drop would be after the effect of the incentives wore off. As it turns out, it has dropped less than I expected so far. “So far” could be the key phrase here. We’ll see. In any case, that’s all sort of background so that I can answer your question. And the answer is that we bought this house because the lot is spectacular and unique and we really love it (and we only had one chance at it and that chance was in May ’10). Not because we didn’t think prices would drop further. If it weren’t for this house coming up for sale, we’d have waited.
As it turns out, prices didn’t drop that much, and here in Spring ’11 they seem to be kind of back near where they were in Spring ’10 . It’s kind of like after the peak in ’05. You had some houses go for peak pricing, and some go for less. You have to be careful that you’re not one who pays peak prices now that we’re not at the peak. I saw some sales over the past 5 years and I just had to think, “wow, that buyer’s realtor is not doing anything for them. There are 2 houses on the market better than that that they could’ve gotten for a hundred grand less.” I’d been in the houses, and in the comp houses, and they just plain paid too much.
One way to prevent that is to know the market. Our realtor had an automated set up where we got an email for every house that came on the market, changed price, was cancelled or withdrawn, went pending and sold. Any realtor can do that for you, and you should have yours do it for you if he isn’t already. Check some of the houses out. Notice what they sell for. Know the neighborhood. Of course, if you’re looking in lots of different neighborhoods, that can be difficult to do. But if you know the neighborhood well, you can avoid paying more than you should.
Now, with canyon-backed houses, it’s a little different. There really is a limited supply of those in this part of town. And, flu’s self-admittedly spoiled perspective notwithstanding, it does give you a nice view and a nice, open feeling, and a feeling of serenity that comes from being right on the edge of so much natural land. There are lots of people who want to live in this area and who want to live on the canyon. And they just don’t come up for sale that often (relative to the number of buyers for them). So there’s your supply and demand situation. Except for a brief period in ’09, which was a pretty good window to buy, that situation has held fairly steady.
As for the whole $400/sf discussion, 2500-2600 sf homes on the canyon did sell for $400/sf and more at the peak. And they’ve sold intermittently at that price since the peak. 3100-3500sf homes on the canyon generally sold for $370-$380/sf at the peak and intermittently since then.
As far as whether the canyon is the only reason they’re selling for far more than the ones without it… There’s always other variables. The one on Cloverhurst that sold for 810 is very dark – the back faces northeast and it backs up to a higher neighbor behind. And it has a back yard crammed with a pool. So in addition to a lack of view there’s privacy, light, and backyard issues. There’s always something. But, that said, 810k was fairly cheap for that and 1070k was pretty high for the other one. So you’ve got a not-on-the-canyon, not-super-nice home at a price that’s low even considering the problems, and an on-the-canyon house, which is a nice house with a big yard, at a price that’s high, even for such a nice house. Point being, the spread between canyon and not canyon is not usually that big.
Anyway, it’s a real nice area and I hope you find something you like. I’d be happy to try to answer any other questions you have. Good luck.
Participant[quote=lepetitangel]Wow ZK you really know the area very well!
I read on the forum that you finally bought something last year. Did you look into this area of CV for a long while and you finally bought something you like cuz the price just never dropped to what you had wanted?Yah…canyon-back homes. We love that feature but don’t know if that’s the only reason why they’re selling far more than the ones without the few. I guess the limited supply.[/quote]
We’ve lived in CV for about 9 years. From Feb ’05 until late 2010, we were renting and watching the market. We watched every house that came on the market and every house that sold, paying particular attention to Carmel Country Highlands (which is Steeplechase, Belmont, and Lexington). So yes, I know the area very well.
We owned from 2002-2005 and rented after that. We knew we wanted to stay in CV and we were hoping the market would drop. Since about 2007, we’d been on the “list” at Bridle Ridge (a new home community in Carmel Country Highlands), and that was always another option (besides buying an existing home). There was one lot in particular that we loved. When that home was finally for sale (in May 2010), we had the option of buying it or passing on it. It seemed pretty obvious that the market was at a government-incentive-induced mini peak, and that prices would go down after that. And that sort of did happen. But what was less knowable was how much the drop would be after the effect of the incentives wore off. As it turns out, it has dropped less than I expected so far. “So far” could be the key phrase here. We’ll see. In any case, that’s all sort of background so that I can answer your question. And the answer is that we bought this house because the lot is spectacular and unique and we really love it (and we only had one chance at it and that chance was in May ’10). Not because we didn’t think prices would drop further. If it weren’t for this house coming up for sale, we’d have waited.
As it turns out, prices didn’t drop that much, and here in Spring ’11 they seem to be kind of back near where they were in Spring ’10 . It’s kind of like after the peak in ’05. You had some houses go for peak pricing, and some go for less. You have to be careful that you’re not one who pays peak prices now that we’re not at the peak. I saw some sales over the past 5 years and I just had to think, “wow, that buyer’s realtor is not doing anything for them. There are 2 houses on the market better than that that they could’ve gotten for a hundred grand less.” I’d been in the houses, and in the comp houses, and they just plain paid too much.
One way to prevent that is to know the market. Our realtor had an automated set up where we got an email for every house that came on the market, changed price, was cancelled or withdrawn, went pending and sold. Any realtor can do that for you, and you should have yours do it for you if he isn’t already. Check some of the houses out. Notice what they sell for. Know the neighborhood. Of course, if you’re looking in lots of different neighborhoods, that can be difficult to do. But if you know the neighborhood well, you can avoid paying more than you should.
Now, with canyon-backed houses, it’s a little different. There really is a limited supply of those in this part of town. And, flu’s self-admittedly spoiled perspective notwithstanding, it does give you a nice view and a nice, open feeling, and a feeling of serenity that comes from being right on the edge of so much natural land. There are lots of people who want to live in this area and who want to live on the canyon. And they just don’t come up for sale that often (relative to the number of buyers for them). So there’s your supply and demand situation. Except for a brief period in ’09, which was a pretty good window to buy, that situation has held fairly steady.
As for the whole $400/sf discussion, 2500-2600 sf homes on the canyon did sell for $400/sf and more at the peak. And they’ve sold intermittently at that price since the peak. 3100-3500sf homes on the canyon generally sold for $370-$380/sf at the peak and intermittently since then.
As far as whether the canyon is the only reason they’re selling for far more than the ones without it… There’s always other variables. The one on Cloverhurst that sold for 810 is very dark – the back faces northeast and it backs up to a higher neighbor behind. And it has a back yard crammed with a pool. So in addition to a lack of view there’s privacy, light, and backyard issues. There’s always something. But, that said, 810k was fairly cheap for that and 1070k was pretty high for the other one. So you’ve got a not-on-the-canyon, not-super-nice home at a price that’s low even considering the problems, and an on-the-canyon house, which is a nice house with a big yard, at a price that’s high, even for such a nice house. Point being, the spread between canyon and not canyon is not usually that big.
Anyway, it’s a real nice area and I hope you find something you like. I’d be happy to try to answer any other questions you have. Good luck.
Participant[quote=lepetitangel]Wow ZK you really know the area very well!
I read on the forum that you finally bought something last year. Did you look into this area of CV for a long while and you finally bought something you like cuz the price just never dropped to what you had wanted?Yah…canyon-back homes. We love that feature but don’t know if that’s the only reason why they’re selling far more than the ones without the few. I guess the limited supply.[/quote]
We’ve lived in CV for about 9 years. From Feb ’05 until late 2010, we were renting and watching the market. We watched every house that came on the market and every house that sold, paying particular attention to Carmel Country Highlands (which is Steeplechase, Belmont, and Lexington). So yes, I know the area very well.
We owned from 2002-2005 and rented after that. We knew we wanted to stay in CV and we were hoping the market would drop. Since about 2007, we’d been on the “list” at Bridle Ridge (a new home community in Carmel Country Highlands), and that was always another option (besides buying an existing home). There was one lot in particular that we loved. When that home was finally for sale (in May 2010), we had the option of buying it or passing on it. It seemed pretty obvious that the market was at a government-incentive-induced mini peak, and that prices would go down after that. And that sort of did happen. But what was less knowable was how much the drop would be after the effect of the incentives wore off. As it turns out, it has dropped less than I expected so far. “So far” could be the key phrase here. We’ll see. In any case, that’s all sort of background so that I can answer your question. And the answer is that we bought this house because the lot is spectacular and unique and we really love it (and we only had one chance at it and that chance was in May ’10). Not because we didn’t think prices would drop further. If it weren’t for this house coming up for sale, we’d have waited.
As it turns out, prices didn’t drop that much, and here in Spring ’11 they seem to be kind of back near where they were in Spring ’10 . It’s kind of like after the peak in ’05. You had some houses go for peak pricing, and some go for less. You have to be careful that you’re not one who pays peak prices now that we’re not at the peak. I saw some sales over the past 5 years and I just had to think, “wow, that buyer’s realtor is not doing anything for them. There are 2 houses on the market better than that that they could’ve gotten for a hundred grand less.” I’d been in the houses, and in the comp houses, and they just plain paid too much.
One way to prevent that is to know the market. Our realtor had an automated set up where we got an email for every house that came on the market, changed price, was cancelled or withdrawn, went pending and sold. Any realtor can do that for you, and you should have yours do it for you if he isn’t already. Check some of the houses out. Notice what they sell for. Know the neighborhood. Of course, if you’re looking in lots of different neighborhoods, that can be difficult to do. But if you know the neighborhood well, you can avoid paying more than you should.
Now, with canyon-backed houses, it’s a little different. There really is a limited supply of those in this part of town. And, flu’s self-admittedly spoiled perspective notwithstanding, it does give you a nice view and a nice, open feeling, and a feeling of serenity that comes from being right on the edge of so much natural land. There are lots of people who want to live in this area and who want to live on the canyon. And they just don’t come up for sale that often (relative to the number of buyers for them). So there’s your supply and demand situation. Except for a brief period in ’09, which was a pretty good window to buy, that situation has held fairly steady.
As for the whole $400/sf discussion, 2500-2600 sf homes on the canyon did sell for $400/sf and more at the peak. And they’ve sold intermittently at that price since the peak. 3100-3500sf homes on the canyon generally sold for $370-$380/sf at the peak and intermittently since then.
As far as whether the canyon is the only reason they’re selling for far more than the ones without it… There’s always other variables. The one on Cloverhurst that sold for 810 is very dark – the back faces northeast and it backs up to a higher neighbor behind. And it has a back yard crammed with a pool. So in addition to a lack of view there’s privacy, light, and backyard issues. There’s always something. But, that said, 810k was fairly cheap for that and 1070k was pretty high for the other one. So you’ve got a not-on-the-canyon, not-super-nice home at a price that’s low even considering the problems, and an on-the-canyon house, which is a nice house with a big yard, at a price that’s high, even for such a nice house. Point being, the spread between canyon and not canyon is not usually that big.
Anyway, it’s a real nice area and I hope you find something you like. I’d be happy to try to answer any other questions you have. Good luck.
Participant[quote=lepetitangel]Wow ZK you really know the area very well!
I read on the forum that you finally bought something last year. Did you look into this area of CV for a long while and you finally bought something you like cuz the price just never dropped to what you had wanted?Yah…canyon-back homes. We love that feature but don’t know if that’s the only reason why they’re selling far more than the ones without the few. I guess the limited supply.[/quote]
We’ve lived in CV for about 9 years. From Feb ’05 until late 2010, we were renting and watching the market. We watched every house that came on the market and every house that sold, paying particular attention to Carmel Country Highlands (which is Steeplechase, Belmont, and Lexington). So yes, I know the area very well.
We owned from 2002-2005 and rented after that. We knew we wanted to stay in CV and we were hoping the market would drop. Since about 2007, we’d been on the “list” at Bridle Ridge (a new home community in Carmel Country Highlands), and that was always another option (besides buying an existing home). There was one lot in particular that we loved. When that home was finally for sale (in May 2010), we had the option of buying it or passing on it. It seemed pretty obvious that the market was at a government-incentive-induced mini peak, and that prices would go down after that. And that sort of did happen. But what was less knowable was how much the drop would be after the effect of the incentives wore off. As it turns out, it has dropped less than I expected so far. “So far” could be the key phrase here. We’ll see. In any case, that’s all sort of background so that I can answer your question. And the answer is that we bought this house because the lot is spectacular and unique and we really love it (and we only had one chance at it and that chance was in May ’10). Not because we didn’t think prices would drop further. If it weren’t for this house coming up for sale, we’d have waited.
As it turns out, prices didn’t drop that much, and here in Spring ’11 they seem to be kind of back near where they were in Spring ’10 . It’s kind of like after the peak in ’05. You had some houses go for peak pricing, and some go for less. You have to be careful that you’re not one who pays peak prices now that we’re not at the peak. I saw some sales over the past 5 years and I just had to think, “wow, that buyer’s realtor is not doing anything for them. There are 2 houses on the market better than that that they could’ve gotten for a hundred grand less.” I’d been in the houses, and in the comp houses, and they just plain paid too much.
One way to prevent that is to know the market. Our realtor had an automated set up where we got an email for every house that came on the market, changed price, was cancelled or withdrawn, went pending and sold. Any realtor can do that for you, and you should have yours do it for you if he isn’t already. Check some of the houses out. Notice what they sell for. Know the neighborhood. Of course, if you’re looking in lots of different neighborhoods, that can be difficult to do. But if you know the neighborhood well, you can avoid paying more than you should.
Now, with canyon-backed houses, it’s a little different. There really is a limited supply of those in this part of town. And, flu’s self-admittedly spoiled perspective notwithstanding, it does give you a nice view and a nice, open feeling, and a feeling of serenity that comes from being right on the edge of so much natural land. There are lots of people who want to live in this area and who want to live on the canyon. And they just don’t come up for sale that often (relative to the number of buyers for them). So there’s your supply and demand situation. Except for a brief period in ’09, which was a pretty good window to buy, that situation has held fairly steady.
As for the whole $400/sf discussion, 2500-2600 sf homes on the canyon did sell for $400/sf and more at the peak. And they’ve sold intermittently at that price since the peak. 3100-3500sf homes on the canyon generally sold for $370-$380/sf at the peak and intermittently since then.
As far as whether the canyon is the only reason they’re selling for far more than the ones without it… There’s always other variables. The one on Cloverhurst that sold for 810 is very dark – the back faces northeast and it backs up to a higher neighbor behind. And it has a back yard crammed with a pool. So in addition to a lack of view there’s privacy, light, and backyard issues. There’s always something. But, that said, 810k was fairly cheap for that and 1070k was pretty high for the other one. So you’ve got a not-on-the-canyon, not-super-nice home at a price that’s low even considering the problems, and an on-the-canyon house, which is a nice house with a big yard, at a price that’s high, even for such a nice house. Point being, the spread between canyon and not canyon is not usually that big.
Anyway, it’s a real nice area and I hope you find something you like. I’d be happy to try to answer any other questions you have. Good luck.
Participant[quote=flu] in my mind, even at the height, $350/sqft seems about reasonable.[/quote]
The key here is, “in my mind…seems.”
$350 seems reasonable in my mind, too. But that’s not what they’re selling for. That’s not what they sold for at the height, either.
I agree that the contestant number 2 got a lot for his house. I was surpised he got that much. That does kind of seem like peak pricing. It reminds me of 5880 Great Meadow in Saratoga. It was a foreclosure for sale this summer. Nice house, about 2700 sf, big lot, on a canyon, with a pool and spa. We offered a million on it, figuring it might get a million fifty. Some joker bid $1,180,000. I’d bet the second highest bid was a hundred grand less than that.
In any case, that’s what they’re selling for right now. There’s a limited supply of canyon-backing homes, and when they come on the market, there’s people who want them and will pay for them.
The last low point came in 2009. 5001 Manor Ridge was a 2700 sf Belmont on the canyon. No upgrades, ordinary lot. Sold for $925k. You can’t find that now. So prices have definitely gone up since then. Will they go back down there? Maybe. Maybe not. Who knows, really?
Participant[quote=flu] in my mind, even at the height, $350/sqft seems about reasonable.[/quote]
The key here is, “in my mind…seems.”
$350 seems reasonable in my mind, too. But that’s not what they’re selling for. That’s not what they sold for at the height, either.
I agree that the contestant number 2 got a lot for his house. I was surpised he got that much. That does kind of seem like peak pricing. It reminds me of 5880 Great Meadow in Saratoga. It was a foreclosure for sale this summer. Nice house, about 2700 sf, big lot, on a canyon, with a pool and spa. We offered a million on it, figuring it might get a million fifty. Some joker bid $1,180,000. I’d bet the second highest bid was a hundred grand less than that.
In any case, that’s what they’re selling for right now. There’s a limited supply of canyon-backing homes, and when they come on the market, there’s people who want them and will pay for them.
The last low point came in 2009. 5001 Manor Ridge was a 2700 sf Belmont on the canyon. No upgrades, ordinary lot. Sold for $925k. You can’t find that now. So prices have definitely gone up since then. Will they go back down there? Maybe. Maybe not. Who knows, really?
Participant[quote=flu] in my mind, even at the height, $350/sqft seems about reasonable.[/quote]
The key here is, “in my mind…seems.”
$350 seems reasonable in my mind, too. But that’s not what they’re selling for. That’s not what they sold for at the height, either.
I agree that the contestant number 2 got a lot for his house. I was surpised he got that much. That does kind of seem like peak pricing. It reminds me of 5880 Great Meadow in Saratoga. It was a foreclosure for sale this summer. Nice house, about 2700 sf, big lot, on a canyon, with a pool and spa. We offered a million on it, figuring it might get a million fifty. Some joker bid $1,180,000. I’d bet the second highest bid was a hundred grand less than that.
In any case, that’s what they’re selling for right now. There’s a limited supply of canyon-backing homes, and when they come on the market, there’s people who want them and will pay for them.
The last low point came in 2009. 5001 Manor Ridge was a 2700 sf Belmont on the canyon. No upgrades, ordinary lot. Sold for $925k. You can’t find that now. So prices have definitely gone up since then. Will they go back down there? Maybe. Maybe not. Who knows, really?
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