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JG – what do you define as “content”, and by your standard, whose speech is not empty?

Also, since you were in the Navy, how do you feel about the use of military right now in Iraq? Is the military stretched too thin rihgt now? If I may ask.

PerryChase — Thanks for pointing out that MP3 of Obama’s speeches are available.

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sdbear, I agree with your fundmantel analysis on gold. But if dollar gets devalued, foreign governments can’t own US real estate as part of their reserve. The world needs a reserve currency. Euro might take up some, but Gold is another natural choice. That’s the long-term case for Gold.

Right now I think that gold’s price is being helped by a lot of speculative interest. I read that gold index fund itself becomes the marginal demand that pushes up gold prices.

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When a relative sold their house, they had a decorator staged the house (and I was told that it made a true difference); and the decorator used the Feng-shui books that I gave them as coffee table books! Just showed the buyers that the house had good Feng-shui care.:-) They sold quickly.

Seriously, if every house buries a St. Joseph statue, how useful is that? Then we won’t have a real estate downturn. Maybe then the trick is where, when, and how to bury it?

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The best case for gold is that the world needs an alternative reserve currency now that dollar may lose its value over time. US dollar is the dominant reserve currency for many countries, which gives it artificial support on top of what dollar should be worth based on fundmentals.

So gold should be thought as a hedge against the long-term devaluation of US dollar; and maybe also a hedge against increasing geopolitical risks in the world.

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sdrebear, well said.

The one article/speech that I like the most regarding the connection between religion and politics is this:

http://obama.senate.gov/speech/060628-call_to_renewal_keynote_address/index.html

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JES and JG: would you have problems with religious symbols from other religions being displayed in public places?

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Stephan, you must know something that I don’t. As far as I know, once you converted your dollar into Yuan, you can’t just exchange it back to dollar (or any other currency). My parents couldn’t, and I couldn’t (when I travel to China, if I converted some dollars and keep my original receipt, then yes, I can convert back the left-over RMB). That’s why many people go to the black market. That’s why it’s a controlled currency. On my last trip, I did some American collegues favor to exchange dollar for their RMB because they lost their receipts. And I’m pretty sure that if the rule has changed, it’s a big news and I’d know it. It’s easy to exchange into RMB, but not that easy to get out (easier today if you have good connections in China, but not freely).

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Stephan, Do you have a way to exchange your money back into dollars? Or are you waiting for the yuan to become a floating currency?

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Stephen, impressive. What do you do at your day job? This is all a hobby?

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“Thailand, Malaysia, South Korean suffered a terrible recession after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, but they were able to engineer a recovery by boosting local consumption.”. I don’t know about Thailand and Malaysia; but South Korean actually went through a consumer credit bubble. Basically, consumers are new to usign credit, and when the government encourages easy credit to stimulate consumption, consumers abused easy credit. There was a lot of bad consumer loans out there. I think that it wasn’t too bad because soon South Korean benefited tremendouly from trading with China.

I heard that Vietnam is doing very well, in fact, quite a few of my Chinese friends went there looking for investment opportunities.

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zk, I’d assume that most people who own houses in CV would wnat to stay if school district is their reason to own there. So the sellers will be limited to a) investors who got in the market close to the peak; b)those who have cash flow problems if they stretched too much to buy; and c) those who move out of area… do you have a sense if there is a large number of people who belong to these categories?

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neighborhood — I work in the Carmel Valley area, and would prefer a short commute.

Builders — just want to get some general knowledge in the case that we buy a newly constructed house.

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Wiley, what explained Fleetwood’s problems other than industry wide Mhomes slump? They don’t seem to do that well in RV market either. Do you see a pick up in Mhomes once the financing side gets stablized? After all, Mhomes are affordable, and as many said, quality is much better too…

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I don’t think that I’d discouraging kids from going to a good school. I just think that it’s not necessary to put a lot of pressure on a kid to go to a top school. Kids who follow a path that’s defined for them may not be as well balanced as kids who actively pursue what they truly value. It seems nowdays that middle class parents might have put too much emphasis on kids going to a top school — that’s the impression that I got from reading articles. I went to top schools in China and in the US, and I got to know many very smart people. So I value the education that one gets from good schools. But I’ve also met very smart and motivated people who’ve attended average schools — hence my conclusion that college / grad school is just one step in one’s education, important, but it doesn’t determine a person’s future.

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China — The problem with the Chinese economy at this point is that it’s too dependent on fixed infrastructure investments, similar to that the US is too dependent on consumers. With so much capacity built in China, there is the danger of too much price competition, significant resource misallocation, and a resulting hard landing.

PS, you said, “The problem is that China cannot create a consumer. Did you read in the story that the shopping malls are empty, as the people are either too poor, or too much savers.” (Thanks for the link, BTW) That’s not entirely true. The very high end malls are empty because the builders went after prestige and their pricing was way too high (we’re talking about Paris NYC type of prices). If you go to shops normal Chinese go to, there is plenty of consumption. Not all chinese are savers, either. Younger generation who’s making good money fast are quite good at consuming. Very savvy multi-nationals are already making a lot of money in China.

PerryChase, even if Chinese consumers are buying US branded products, it may not benefit US jobs because those products are very likely made in China. The only true exports (that I’m aware of) are airplanes, chips, software, highend capital equipment (machinery, likely from Europe, Japan and Korea), etc. China is also resources hungry, so it imports a lot of raw material from places like Australia, Brazil, and Africa. I think that US exports to China algriculture products. Entertainment is another US export.

If you look out 20 years, the probability of US living standard decline relative to the rest of the world (Asia) is very high. (Note the word “relative”). US just isn’t producing enough value-added products.

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