[WaitingToExhale]

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-D1759F8E-339_W_University_Ave_B_San_Die…

Listing $175,000

Sale History
6/7/2005 $300,000
10/6/2004 $235,000

41% loss

Wow, this is a big one. I’m focused on SFRs, not condos, but nice find.

[WaitingToExhale]

Listing at $789,900
Sale History
04/21/2006: $1,015,000
07/18/2003: $710,000

22% loss!

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-69AE5A89-10228_Lone_Dove_St_San_Diego_CA_92127

[WaitingToExhale]

Edited for accuracy. I originally said “wasn’t right in principle” when I meant “was.” Freudian slip?

The original post from November 2006 is interesting with the statement:

There’s also a video clip of shiller up at bloomberg. He mentions that the traded index futures are “predicting” a 5% or so decline YOY for next august.

The prediction WAS right in principle, if somewhat conservative (~5% predicted YOY decline for August and we are at a 7.8% decline as of the July data).

Where can one see the traded index futures? I would imagine they are pretty confused at this point with the whole credit crunch and the threat of government intervention.

[WaitingToExhale]

The original post from November 2006 is interesting with the statement:

There’s also a video clip of shiller up at bloomberg. He mentions that the traded index futures are “predicting” a 5% or so decline YOY for next august.

The prediction wasn’t right in principle, if somewhat conservative (~5% predicted YOY decline for August and we are at a 7.8% decline as of the July data).

Where can one see the traded index futures? I would imagine they are pretty confused at this point with the whole credit crunch and the threat of government intervention.

[WaitingToExhale]

[img_assist|nid=4758|title=Closed Sales + 2005|desc=I added the 2005 data, which helps to put it in perspective. I am still surprised that there’s a great wailing and gnashing of teeth in the media this year, with sales pretty much equivalent to last year’s, and almost nothing last year when sales were dramatically down from 2005.

It is interesting that the lowest months (Jan and Feb) are pretty similar for all three years, with reductions in bounces for 2006 and 2007. Perhaps 2000 or so sales is the baseline minimum?|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=297]

[WaitingToExhale]

[img_assist|nid=4757|title=August 2007 Closed Sales|desc=This doesn’t look as bad to me as I expected. With apologies to Artifact, I’ve tried my hand at graphing these data out. I know this is a dangerous forum to ask this, and I certainly WANT house prices to dramatically drop for my family’s sake, but is anybody else concerned that it doesn’t look worse? Through August, it looks like total closed sales are down 11%… or, looking at it another way, sales are still at almost 90% of last year’s, even in this “terrible market!” What’s the missing piece here? I want to believe….|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=297]

[WaitingToExhale]

My wife has older sisters who shared a room and always envied their time together. We’re many years off from the teenager stage, but I can certainly imagine it could get tough.

[WaitingToExhale]

don’t bother negotiating. don’t even bother going to their sales office. let them sit and rot. even if this batch of 4closure ranch homes are all sold out, you’ll still have plenty to chose from. sit back and relax and watch Team Builders stab their customers of today several times in the back this time next year.

I don’t make >$200K/year, so I’m not certainly not going to buy anything for $700K. We also don’t need any 5 bedrooms + study. That seems really nutso for most people. I’d rather have a four bedroom with a larger yard, where the master bedroom closet doesn’t dwarf the smaller bedrooms. Heck, my wife keeps arguing that we really only need three bedrooms and we’ll put our two kids in one room.

[WaitingToExhale]

Out of curiosity, my wife and I took a look at some of the homes at 4Closure Ranch (wishful thinking?) this past weekend. As it was our first time, I’m not sure what they’ve told folks in the past, but they had the lowest cost Silhouette homes listed for “low-700’s” and they actually were starting at $680K.

This was with no negotiation at all.

[WaitingToExhale]

Thanks HereWeGo for the link, and thanks to Artifact for the graphs! Your graphs, in this link and others, are always much appreciated (I love seeing data).

[WaitingToExhale]

Edited – deleted for technical reasons.

[WaitingToExhale]

What was last months NOT count? I’d be happy to look myself if I knew where.

[WaitingToExhale]

Right, but in this case the asking price is much higher than the purchase price from 2001.

[WaitingToExhale]

Right, but in this case the asking price is much higher than the purchase price from 2001.

[WaitingToExhale]

Right, but in this case the asking price is much higher than the purchase price from 2001.

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