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urbanrealtor
Participant[quote=TheBreeze][quote=urbanrealtor]
While I agree that the patriot act was planned, I am not sure how the bailout benefits anyone.
I mean the patriot act brought US public safety standards to something closer to the rest of the world. I (and many others) disagree with it because most of the governments of the world are too intrusive and controlling. But the point was that there was a large powerful lobby that always wanted the measures of the patriot act adopted.
I don’t see that same kind of lobby for this measure. Its more like the “surge” in Iraq. It might be very successful and improve stability but it is really just dressed up damage control. I do think that the parts of our economy that led us here DID have a huge lobby (deregulation, loose money, loose securitization rules).
Hopefully the remedy will garner a huge lobby and address the causes as well. We’ll see.[/quote]
My god you are naive. No lobby for $700 billion? Your buddies at NAR have been begging for a bailout for months. PIMCO’s Bill Gross can’t wait to get his hands on that taxpayer money. There are tons of other bagholders out there who can’t wait to unload crappy mortgages on the taxpayer.
Who do you think is writing this bill? Congresspeople? Not a chance. This bill is most assuredly being written by lobbyists.
Do you live in a bubble or something? I don’t see how else you could believe that lobbyists wouldn’t be involved when $700 billion is at stake.
[/quote]
Again, I don’t think that making personal attacks strengthens your case.
You may note that I did not say lobbyists.
I said a lobby and not a group of professional lobbyists.
A pro lobbyist is like Jack Abramoff who takes legislators out to lunch or buys them a boat.
I was referring to an interested group who want to sway an outcome (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/lobby). Specifically, the will of the public. I think that the public opinion polls tend to support my thesis (http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/26/news/economy/easton_backlash.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008092810).I don’t think that NAR (with whom I do not generally agree on anything) or PIMCO were the prime movers behind this bill. They just don’t have that much juice. Some parts of this may suit their interests but I don’t recall them asking for this particular type of securities purchase before. Do you know of such a request? Again I do not see a lobby other than a few of the most senior consulting economists.
Whom do you see being a interested party pushing for this? Who is really going to get rich off of this bailout?
I really would be happy to be proven wrong on this.
If you have data that matches your assertions, I will listen.Insults make arguments weak. If you want me to take your assertions seriously, you should present them seriously. I am not immune to being convinced by good reasoning.
September 28, 2008 at 2:16 PM in reply to: Roubini on the current economic situation, with predictions #276728Participant[quote=peterb]Prices move through the RE market slowly compared to most other markets. Foreclosures will turn into rentals as more investors purchase them and knife-catchers move into the market to own at these new and appealing prices. This should drive down rental prices as historically happens in most recessions and all depressions.
CA real unemployment is probably around 10% and rising. There already is deflation in most every asset class.
The only caveat on rentals I would have is that there may be more pressure on areas that are highly desirable for a while, as renting has more options than purchasing.
Forecasting involves identifying trends that are not reversing and following them to their conclusion or reversal. Just looking at today’s environment for rentals and not following out the progression of all these events is rather foolish and typically how we get into the problems like we are now seeing.[/quote]
Again, I think we are talking past each other on this. I agree with you long term. But economic strategy (fiscal, monetary, or investment) is all about timing. I don’t mean trying to time the bottom but in being able to accurately say where one is at now. Right now, we are in situation where we have noticeably fewer buyers than properties. However, we have (in some micromarkets) more people than available space.
In those areas, it seems unlikely that buying with lower carrying costs than rent (for owner occupied) is particularly suicidal. Housing has an intrinsic value that other measures of wealth (even commodities) do not. Would you disagree?http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080928/news_1h28rent.html
September 28, 2008 at 2:16 PM in reply to: Roubini on the current economic situation, with predictions #276985Participant[quote=peterb]Prices move through the RE market slowly compared to most other markets. Foreclosures will turn into rentals as more investors purchase them and knife-catchers move into the market to own at these new and appealing prices. This should drive down rental prices as historically happens in most recessions and all depressions.
CA real unemployment is probably around 10% and rising. There already is deflation in most every asset class.
The only caveat on rentals I would have is that there may be more pressure on areas that are highly desirable for a while, as renting has more options than purchasing.
Forecasting involves identifying trends that are not reversing and following them to their conclusion or reversal. Just looking at today’s environment for rentals and not following out the progression of all these events is rather foolish and typically how we get into the problems like we are now seeing.[/quote]
Again, I think we are talking past each other on this. I agree with you long term. But economic strategy (fiscal, monetary, or investment) is all about timing. I don’t mean trying to time the bottom but in being able to accurately say where one is at now. Right now, we are in situation where we have noticeably fewer buyers than properties. However, we have (in some micromarkets) more people than available space.
In those areas, it seems unlikely that buying with lower carrying costs than rent (for owner occupied) is particularly suicidal. Housing has an intrinsic value that other measures of wealth (even commodities) do not. Would you disagree?http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080928/news_1h28rent.html
September 28, 2008 at 2:16 PM in reply to: Roubini on the current economic situation, with predictions #277002Participant[quote=peterb]Prices move through the RE market slowly compared to most other markets. Foreclosures will turn into rentals as more investors purchase them and knife-catchers move into the market to own at these new and appealing prices. This should drive down rental prices as historically happens in most recessions and all depressions.
CA real unemployment is probably around 10% and rising. There already is deflation in most every asset class.
The only caveat on rentals I would have is that there may be more pressure on areas that are highly desirable for a while, as renting has more options than purchasing.
Forecasting involves identifying trends that are not reversing and following them to their conclusion or reversal. Just looking at today’s environment for rentals and not following out the progression of all these events is rather foolish and typically how we get into the problems like we are now seeing.[/quote]
Again, I think we are talking past each other on this. I agree with you long term. But economic strategy (fiscal, monetary, or investment) is all about timing. I don’t mean trying to time the bottom but in being able to accurately say where one is at now. Right now, we are in situation where we have noticeably fewer buyers than properties. However, we have (in some micromarkets) more people than available space.
In those areas, it seems unlikely that buying with lower carrying costs than rent (for owner occupied) is particularly suicidal. Housing has an intrinsic value that other measures of wealth (even commodities) do not. Would you disagree?http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080928/news_1h28rent.html
September 28, 2008 at 2:16 PM in reply to: Roubini on the current economic situation, with predictions #277036Participant[quote=peterb]Prices move through the RE market slowly compared to most other markets. Foreclosures will turn into rentals as more investors purchase them and knife-catchers move into the market to own at these new and appealing prices. This should drive down rental prices as historically happens in most recessions and all depressions.
CA real unemployment is probably around 10% and rising. There already is deflation in most every asset class.
The only caveat on rentals I would have is that there may be more pressure on areas that are highly desirable for a while, as renting has more options than purchasing.
Forecasting involves identifying trends that are not reversing and following them to their conclusion or reversal. Just looking at today’s environment for rentals and not following out the progression of all these events is rather foolish and typically how we get into the problems like we are now seeing.[/quote]
Again, I think we are talking past each other on this. I agree with you long term. But economic strategy (fiscal, monetary, or investment) is all about timing. I don’t mean trying to time the bottom but in being able to accurately say where one is at now. Right now, we are in situation where we have noticeably fewer buyers than properties. However, we have (in some micromarkets) more people than available space.
In those areas, it seems unlikely that buying with lower carrying costs than rent (for owner occupied) is particularly suicidal. Housing has an intrinsic value that other measures of wealth (even commodities) do not. Would you disagree?http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080928/news_1h28rent.html
September 28, 2008 at 2:16 PM in reply to: Roubini on the current economic situation, with predictions #277049Participant[quote=peterb]Prices move through the RE market slowly compared to most other markets. Foreclosures will turn into rentals as more investors purchase them and knife-catchers move into the market to own at these new and appealing prices. This should drive down rental prices as historically happens in most recessions and all depressions.
CA real unemployment is probably around 10% and rising. There already is deflation in most every asset class.
The only caveat on rentals I would have is that there may be more pressure on areas that are highly desirable for a while, as renting has more options than purchasing.
Forecasting involves identifying trends that are not reversing and following them to their conclusion or reversal. Just looking at today’s environment for rentals and not following out the progression of all these events is rather foolish and typically how we get into the problems like we are now seeing.[/quote]
Again, I think we are talking past each other on this. I agree with you long term. But economic strategy (fiscal, monetary, or investment) is all about timing. I don’t mean trying to time the bottom but in being able to accurately say where one is at now. Right now, we are in situation where we have noticeably fewer buyers than properties. However, we have (in some micromarkets) more people than available space.
In those areas, it seems unlikely that buying with lower carrying costs than rent (for owner occupied) is particularly suicidal. Housing has an intrinsic value that other measures of wealth (even commodities) do not. Would you disagree?http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080928/news_1h28rent.html
Participant[quote=paramount]All of a sudden this bailout is going to save the world, of course a little over a week ago nobody was even talking about it.
I have no doubt this was all planned long ago – just like the so called “PATRIOT” Act political leaders were just waiting for the right moment to ram it through congress and stick it to the next 3 generations of average Americans.
And yet, most of the incumbents will be sent right back to Washington.[/quote]
While I agree that the patriot act was planned, I am not sure how the bailout benefits anyone.
I mean the patriot act brought US public safety standards to something closer to the rest of the world. I (and many others) disagree with it because most of the governments of the world are too intrusive and controlling. But the point was that there was a large powerful lobby that always wanted the measures of the patriot act adopted.
I don’t see that same kind of lobby for this measure. Its more like the “surge” in Iraq. It might be very successful and improve stability but it is really just dressed up damage control. I do think that the parts of our economy that led us here DID have a huge lobby (deregulation, loose money, loose securitization rules).
Hopefully the remedy will garner a huge lobby and address the causes as well. We’ll see.
Participant[quote=paramount]All of a sudden this bailout is going to save the world, of course a little over a week ago nobody was even talking about it.
I have no doubt this was all planned long ago – just like the so called “PATRIOT” Act political leaders were just waiting for the right moment to ram it through congress and stick it to the next 3 generations of average Americans.
And yet, most of the incumbents will be sent right back to Washington.[/quote]
While I agree that the patriot act was planned, I am not sure how the bailout benefits anyone.
I mean the patriot act brought US public safety standards to something closer to the rest of the world. I (and many others) disagree with it because most of the governments of the world are too intrusive and controlling. But the point was that there was a large powerful lobby that always wanted the measures of the patriot act adopted.
I don’t see that same kind of lobby for this measure. Its more like the “surge” in Iraq. It might be very successful and improve stability but it is really just dressed up damage control. I do think that the parts of our economy that led us here DID have a huge lobby (deregulation, loose money, loose securitization rules).
Hopefully the remedy will garner a huge lobby and address the causes as well. We’ll see.
Participant[quote=paramount]All of a sudden this bailout is going to save the world, of course a little over a week ago nobody was even talking about it.
I have no doubt this was all planned long ago – just like the so called “PATRIOT” Act political leaders were just waiting for the right moment to ram it through congress and stick it to the next 3 generations of average Americans.
And yet, most of the incumbents will be sent right back to Washington.[/quote]
While I agree that the patriot act was planned, I am not sure how the bailout benefits anyone.
I mean the patriot act brought US public safety standards to something closer to the rest of the world. I (and many others) disagree with it because most of the governments of the world are too intrusive and controlling. But the point was that there was a large powerful lobby that always wanted the measures of the patriot act adopted.
I don’t see that same kind of lobby for this measure. Its more like the “surge” in Iraq. It might be very successful and improve stability but it is really just dressed up damage control. I do think that the parts of our economy that led us here DID have a huge lobby (deregulation, loose money, loose securitization rules).
Hopefully the remedy will garner a huge lobby and address the causes as well. We’ll see.
Participant[quote=paramount]All of a sudden this bailout is going to save the world, of course a little over a week ago nobody was even talking about it.
I have no doubt this was all planned long ago – just like the so called “PATRIOT” Act political leaders were just waiting for the right moment to ram it through congress and stick it to the next 3 generations of average Americans.
And yet, most of the incumbents will be sent right back to Washington.[/quote]
While I agree that the patriot act was planned, I am not sure how the bailout benefits anyone.
I mean the patriot act brought US public safety standards to something closer to the rest of the world. I (and many others) disagree with it because most of the governments of the world are too intrusive and controlling. But the point was that there was a large powerful lobby that always wanted the measures of the patriot act adopted.
I don’t see that same kind of lobby for this measure. Its more like the “surge” in Iraq. It might be very successful and improve stability but it is really just dressed up damage control. I do think that the parts of our economy that led us here DID have a huge lobby (deregulation, loose money, loose securitization rules).
Hopefully the remedy will garner a huge lobby and address the causes as well. We’ll see.
Participant[quote=paramount]All of a sudden this bailout is going to save the world, of course a little over a week ago nobody was even talking about it.
I have no doubt this was all planned long ago – just like the so called “PATRIOT” Act political leaders were just waiting for the right moment to ram it through congress and stick it to the next 3 generations of average Americans.
And yet, most of the incumbents will be sent right back to Washington.[/quote]
While I agree that the patriot act was planned, I am not sure how the bailout benefits anyone.
I mean the patriot act brought US public safety standards to something closer to the rest of the world. I (and many others) disagree with it because most of the governments of the world are too intrusive and controlling. But the point was that there was a large powerful lobby that always wanted the measures of the patriot act adopted.
I don’t see that same kind of lobby for this measure. Its more like the “surge” in Iraq. It might be very successful and improve stability but it is really just dressed up damage control. I do think that the parts of our economy that led us here DID have a huge lobby (deregulation, loose money, loose securitization rules).
Hopefully the remedy will garner a huge lobby and address the causes as well. We’ll see.
September 28, 2008 at 1:06 PM in reply to: Bush administration sees 4000-point drop in DOW this week if no bailout #276713ParticipantPatient:
Your points are fair (if cynical).Any thoughts about an alternative?
September 28, 2008 at 1:06 PM in reply to: Bush administration sees 4000-point drop in DOW this week if no bailout #276970ParticipantPatient:
Your points are fair (if cynical).Any thoughts about an alternative?
September 28, 2008 at 1:06 PM in reply to: Bush administration sees 4000-point drop in DOW this week if no bailout #276987ParticipantPatient:
Your points are fair (if cynical).Any thoughts about an alternative?
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