Forum Replies Created
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urbanrealtor
Participant[quote=JohnAlt91941]
Why do you think they “go bananas”? It’s not logical to buy a house that costs WAY more to buy than rent. If it doesn’t pencil out as a rental then why the demand?
To me it’s just bubble conditioning. People think buying at 30% or so off the peak is a great deal. Never mind that it’s still double the price of 12 years ago.[/quote]
Probably because it doesn’t cost way more to buy than rent at 15GRM.
Lets take an example:
If the property (as above) rents for 1500 per month, then that is 18000 per year.
15 GRM would make the purchase price $270,000.
An 80% loan would mean that a buyer would be paying less than $1300 P&I.
Thats assuming 6% as an interest rate (which would be high).
Throw in another 300 or so for tax and insurance and the numbers make sense.This does not yet take into account mortgage interest deductions and government purchase incentives (which make yet more sense).
Participant[quote=Irish]This little “updated” Craftsman is in a decent area of Northpark and should rent for $1500 or so per month.
If you do the math, and apply a GRM of 10 then the place would value about $180k.
During the recent bubble the GRM’s went nuts to over 20 and sales price became completely disconnected from the fundamentals.
I think prices in this area will come down to 10xGRM eventually, perhaps by late 2010 or 2011.
I’d wait a while to buy and watch the prices and GRM’s come back down to reality.[/quote]That is not realistic.
At 15 GRM, people still go bananas even in crappier pockets. It is possible that this will change but it seems unlikely. If I could buy a place and the revenue could equal the full purchase price in 10 years (where I, the borrower, still get 30 to pay the bank), then everybody would jump in and the effective demand would drive the grm right back up.The only places you see a grm that low is where rents are really high and interest rates are too.
Again, if rates spike (like to 15%) then that may happen.
But that seems an unrealistic projection as of today.
Participant[quote=Irish]This little “updated” Craftsman is in a decent area of Northpark and should rent for $1500 or so per month.
If you do the math, and apply a GRM of 10 then the place would value about $180k.
During the recent bubble the GRM’s went nuts to over 20 and sales price became completely disconnected from the fundamentals.
I think prices in this area will come down to 10xGRM eventually, perhaps by late 2010 or 2011.
I’d wait a while to buy and watch the prices and GRM’s come back down to reality.[/quote]That is not realistic.
At 15 GRM, people still go bananas even in crappier pockets. It is possible that this will change but it seems unlikely. If I could buy a place and the revenue could equal the full purchase price in 10 years (where I, the borrower, still get 30 to pay the bank), then everybody would jump in and the effective demand would drive the grm right back up.The only places you see a grm that low is where rents are really high and interest rates are too.
Again, if rates spike (like to 15%) then that may happen.
But that seems an unrealistic projection as of today.
Participant[quote=Irish]This little “updated” Craftsman is in a decent area of Northpark and should rent for $1500 or so per month.
If you do the math, and apply a GRM of 10 then the place would value about $180k.
During the recent bubble the GRM’s went nuts to over 20 and sales price became completely disconnected from the fundamentals.
I think prices in this area will come down to 10xGRM eventually, perhaps by late 2010 or 2011.
I’d wait a while to buy and watch the prices and GRM’s come back down to reality.[/quote]That is not realistic.
At 15 GRM, people still go bananas even in crappier pockets. It is possible that this will change but it seems unlikely. If I could buy a place and the revenue could equal the full purchase price in 10 years (where I, the borrower, still get 30 to pay the bank), then everybody would jump in and the effective demand would drive the grm right back up.The only places you see a grm that low is where rents are really high and interest rates are too.
Again, if rates spike (like to 15%) then that may happen.
But that seems an unrealistic projection as of today.
Participant[quote=Irish]This little “updated” Craftsman is in a decent area of Northpark and should rent for $1500 or so per month.
If you do the math, and apply a GRM of 10 then the place would value about $180k.
During the recent bubble the GRM’s went nuts to over 20 and sales price became completely disconnected from the fundamentals.
I think prices in this area will come down to 10xGRM eventually, perhaps by late 2010 or 2011.
I’d wait a while to buy and watch the prices and GRM’s come back down to reality.[/quote]That is not realistic.
At 15 GRM, people still go bananas even in crappier pockets. It is possible that this will change but it seems unlikely. If I could buy a place and the revenue could equal the full purchase price in 10 years (where I, the borrower, still get 30 to pay the bank), then everybody would jump in and the effective demand would drive the grm right back up.The only places you see a grm that low is where rents are really high and interest rates are too.
Again, if rates spike (like to 15%) then that may happen.
But that seems an unrealistic projection as of today.
Participant[quote=Irish]This little “updated” Craftsman is in a decent area of Northpark and should rent for $1500 or so per month.
If you do the math, and apply a GRM of 10 then the place would value about $180k.
During the recent bubble the GRM’s went nuts to over 20 and sales price became completely disconnected from the fundamentals.
I think prices in this area will come down to 10xGRM eventually, perhaps by late 2010 or 2011.
I’d wait a while to buy and watch the prices and GRM’s come back down to reality.[/quote]That is not realistic.
At 15 GRM, people still go bananas even in crappier pockets. It is possible that this will change but it seems unlikely. If I could buy a place and the revenue could equal the full purchase price in 10 years (where I, the borrower, still get 30 to pay the bank), then everybody would jump in and the effective demand would drive the grm right back up.The only places you see a grm that low is where rents are really high and interest rates are too.
Again, if rates spike (like to 15%) then that may happen.
But that seems an unrealistic projection as of today.
Participant[quote=zzz]I know there are a few other North Park watchers on here, any opinions on price movement? In my opinion very overpriced still. I look at North Park as very segmented. The homes that have a premium on it tend to hug the park north of Morley, south of University. To the southern boundary would be Nutmeg on the east side of the park. And west of 30th. Everything else in North Park really seems to be highly variable in terms of how nice the street is.
[/quote]
Typically homes with 2 bathrooms and west of 805 are not the easiest to get for less than a half mil.The stuff that is close to the park is generally more than 650 (again, depending on how close to the park and how big and how well kept…)
Usually stuff north of grape tends to be more desirable than stuff south.
[quote=zzz]
Now this home below is east of 30th, and therefore in my definition, not in the premium zone. I have popped into a few open houses in this neighborhood and I actually looked at this house to rent. It wasn’t even a house I would rent. I seriously don’t understand how someone payed 415k for this house. Let me just say it was photographed far better than it looks. It is very small with the sense that nothing belongs where it does. It is off a very busy street with a lot of street noise and cars zooming by. The house looks like it had been the guest house or garage of the house adjacent. There is no garage, just street parking. It did not have a proper living room. It was a weird room that felt like it should have been a bedroom. The 2nd bathroom was so small I could barely fit in it and close the door.Someone please tell me how this house sold for more than the couple paid for it in 2007?
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090030442%5B/quote%5D
Palm and 33rd does not have a comparatively huge amount of noise and as far as the “east of 30th” or “north of Nutmeg” definitions, those simply do not hold up to effective demand. All of the expensive Burlingame neighborhood is east of 30th and almost all is south of Nutmeg.
Many houses over there have little or no parking.
As far as the funky floor plan, that is common in the 20’s houses.
Really I think the price most reflects the fact that it has a second bathroom. Not a lot of those right now at that price.
Update:
Currently, in the area bounded on the north by University, on the south by Nutmeg, on the West by Florida, and on the east by 805, there is exactly one house for sale with more than one bathroom for less than $500k. It is a short sale at 3030 Bancroft with 1.5 bathrooms.Participant[quote=zzz]I know there are a few other North Park watchers on here, any opinions on price movement? In my opinion very overpriced still. I look at North Park as very segmented. The homes that have a premium on it tend to hug the park north of Morley, south of University. To the southern boundary would be Nutmeg on the east side of the park. And west of 30th. Everything else in North Park really seems to be highly variable in terms of how nice the street is.
[/quote]
Typically homes with 2 bathrooms and west of 805 are not the easiest to get for less than a half mil.The stuff that is close to the park is generally more than 650 (again, depending on how close to the park and how big and how well kept…)
Usually stuff north of grape tends to be more desirable than stuff south.
[quote=zzz]
Now this home below is east of 30th, and therefore in my definition, not in the premium zone. I have popped into a few open houses in this neighborhood and I actually looked at this house to rent. It wasn’t even a house I would rent. I seriously don’t understand how someone payed 415k for this house. Let me just say it was photographed far better than it looks. It is very small with the sense that nothing belongs where it does. It is off a very busy street with a lot of street noise and cars zooming by. The house looks like it had been the guest house or garage of the house adjacent. There is no garage, just street parking. It did not have a proper living room. It was a weird room that felt like it should have been a bedroom. The 2nd bathroom was so small I could barely fit in it and close the door.Someone please tell me how this house sold for more than the couple paid for it in 2007?
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090030442%5B/quote%5D
Palm and 33rd does not have a comparatively huge amount of noise and as far as the “east of 30th” or “north of Nutmeg” definitions, those simply do not hold up to effective demand. All of the expensive Burlingame neighborhood is east of 30th and almost all is south of Nutmeg.
Many houses over there have little or no parking.
As far as the funky floor plan, that is common in the 20’s houses.
Really I think the price most reflects the fact that it has a second bathroom. Not a lot of those right now at that price.
Update:
Currently, in the area bounded on the north by University, on the south by Nutmeg, on the West by Florida, and on the east by 805, there is exactly one house for sale with more than one bathroom for less than $500k. It is a short sale at 3030 Bancroft with 1.5 bathrooms.Participant[quote=zzz]I know there are a few other North Park watchers on here, any opinions on price movement? In my opinion very overpriced still. I look at North Park as very segmented. The homes that have a premium on it tend to hug the park north of Morley, south of University. To the southern boundary would be Nutmeg on the east side of the park. And west of 30th. Everything else in North Park really seems to be highly variable in terms of how nice the street is.
[/quote]
Typically homes with 2 bathrooms and west of 805 are not the easiest to get for less than a half mil.The stuff that is close to the park is generally more than 650 (again, depending on how close to the park and how big and how well kept…)
Usually stuff north of grape tends to be more desirable than stuff south.
[quote=zzz]
Now this home below is east of 30th, and therefore in my definition, not in the premium zone. I have popped into a few open houses in this neighborhood and I actually looked at this house to rent. It wasn’t even a house I would rent. I seriously don’t understand how someone payed 415k for this house. Let me just say it was photographed far better than it looks. It is very small with the sense that nothing belongs where it does. It is off a very busy street with a lot of street noise and cars zooming by. The house looks like it had been the guest house or garage of the house adjacent. There is no garage, just street parking. It did not have a proper living room. It was a weird room that felt like it should have been a bedroom. The 2nd bathroom was so small I could barely fit in it and close the door.Someone please tell me how this house sold for more than the couple paid for it in 2007?
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090030442%5B/quote%5D
Palm and 33rd does not have a comparatively huge amount of noise and as far as the “east of 30th” or “north of Nutmeg” definitions, those simply do not hold up to effective demand. All of the expensive Burlingame neighborhood is east of 30th and almost all is south of Nutmeg.
Many houses over there have little or no parking.
As far as the funky floor plan, that is common in the 20’s houses.
Really I think the price most reflects the fact that it has a second bathroom. Not a lot of those right now at that price.
Update:
Currently, in the area bounded on the north by University, on the south by Nutmeg, on the West by Florida, and on the east by 805, there is exactly one house for sale with more than one bathroom for less than $500k. It is a short sale at 3030 Bancroft with 1.5 bathrooms.Participant[quote=zzz]I know there are a few other North Park watchers on here, any opinions on price movement? In my opinion very overpriced still. I look at North Park as very segmented. The homes that have a premium on it tend to hug the park north of Morley, south of University. To the southern boundary would be Nutmeg on the east side of the park. And west of 30th. Everything else in North Park really seems to be highly variable in terms of how nice the street is.
[/quote]
Typically homes with 2 bathrooms and west of 805 are not the easiest to get for less than a half mil.The stuff that is close to the park is generally more than 650 (again, depending on how close to the park and how big and how well kept…)
Usually stuff north of grape tends to be more desirable than stuff south.
[quote=zzz]
Now this home below is east of 30th, and therefore in my definition, not in the premium zone. I have popped into a few open houses in this neighborhood and I actually looked at this house to rent. It wasn’t even a house I would rent. I seriously don’t understand how someone payed 415k for this house. Let me just say it was photographed far better than it looks. It is very small with the sense that nothing belongs where it does. It is off a very busy street with a lot of street noise and cars zooming by. The house looks like it had been the guest house or garage of the house adjacent. There is no garage, just street parking. It did not have a proper living room. It was a weird room that felt like it should have been a bedroom. The 2nd bathroom was so small I could barely fit in it and close the door.Someone please tell me how this house sold for more than the couple paid for it in 2007?
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090030442%5B/quote%5D
Palm and 33rd does not have a comparatively huge amount of noise and as far as the “east of 30th” or “north of Nutmeg” definitions, those simply do not hold up to effective demand. All of the expensive Burlingame neighborhood is east of 30th and almost all is south of Nutmeg.
Many houses over there have little or no parking.
As far as the funky floor plan, that is common in the 20’s houses.
Really I think the price most reflects the fact that it has a second bathroom. Not a lot of those right now at that price.
Update:
Currently, in the area bounded on the north by University, on the south by Nutmeg, on the West by Florida, and on the east by 805, there is exactly one house for sale with more than one bathroom for less than $500k. It is a short sale at 3030 Bancroft with 1.5 bathrooms.Participant[quote=zzz]I know there are a few other North Park watchers on here, any opinions on price movement? In my opinion very overpriced still. I look at North Park as very segmented. The homes that have a premium on it tend to hug the park north of Morley, south of University. To the southern boundary would be Nutmeg on the east side of the park. And west of 30th. Everything else in North Park really seems to be highly variable in terms of how nice the street is.
[/quote]
Typically homes with 2 bathrooms and west of 805 are not the easiest to get for less than a half mil.The stuff that is close to the park is generally more than 650 (again, depending on how close to the park and how big and how well kept…)
Usually stuff north of grape tends to be more desirable than stuff south.
[quote=zzz]
Now this home below is east of 30th, and therefore in my definition, not in the premium zone. I have popped into a few open houses in this neighborhood and I actually looked at this house to rent. It wasn’t even a house I would rent. I seriously don’t understand how someone payed 415k for this house. Let me just say it was photographed far better than it looks. It is very small with the sense that nothing belongs where it does. It is off a very busy street with a lot of street noise and cars zooming by. The house looks like it had been the guest house or garage of the house adjacent. There is no garage, just street parking. It did not have a proper living room. It was a weird room that felt like it should have been a bedroom. The 2nd bathroom was so small I could barely fit in it and close the door.Someone please tell me how this house sold for more than the couple paid for it in 2007?
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090030442%5B/quote%5D
Palm and 33rd does not have a comparatively huge amount of noise and as far as the “east of 30th” or “north of Nutmeg” definitions, those simply do not hold up to effective demand. All of the expensive Burlingame neighborhood is east of 30th and almost all is south of Nutmeg.
Many houses over there have little or no parking.
As far as the funky floor plan, that is common in the 20’s houses.
Really I think the price most reflects the fact that it has a second bathroom. Not a lot of those right now at that price.
Update:
Currently, in the area bounded on the north by University, on the south by Nutmeg, on the West by Florida, and on the east by 805, there is exactly one house for sale with more than one bathroom for less than $500k. It is a short sale at 3030 Bancroft with 1.5 bathrooms.Participant[quote=Ricechex][quote=temeculaguy]ricechex, you’ve been here long enough to know it is a trap to only respond to and focus on the attacks. Ignore the attacks, listen to to the constructive advice, steer the thread in a positive direction and get what you came for, advice and ideas. Plus, since when is a fat ass on a woman a bad thing? I’m fairly certain it is one of the things that proves there is a god and he loves us.[/quote]
Thanks TG. I figured I was getting on the defensive, and that is NEVER a place to be. And, the constructive advice is great….as usual. LOL on the fat asses….[/quote]
Your webcam makes you look quite attractive actually.
I am looking at it now.
However, in all seriousness, your premise for this post still seems pretty worthless. It just engenders irritation from the leave-me-the-fuck-alone crowd (of which there are many on this blog) and, speaking at a personal level, makes me happy to not live near you (and no, I don’t own a box truck). My Accord is pretty vanilla.
I don’t say that to be harsh but to be honest about how it comes off to me and I doubt I am alone on this.
Its a private vehicle on a city street and you find it ugly.
You can flame me for that but I don’t think I am wrong with regard to perception.
Correct me if I am.
Participant[quote=Ricechex][quote=temeculaguy]ricechex, you’ve been here long enough to know it is a trap to only respond to and focus on the attacks. Ignore the attacks, listen to to the constructive advice, steer the thread in a positive direction and get what you came for, advice and ideas. Plus, since when is a fat ass on a woman a bad thing? I’m fairly certain it is one of the things that proves there is a god and he loves us.[/quote]
Thanks TG. I figured I was getting on the defensive, and that is NEVER a place to be. And, the constructive advice is great….as usual. LOL on the fat asses….[/quote]
Your webcam makes you look quite attractive actually.
I am looking at it now.
However, in all seriousness, your premise for this post still seems pretty worthless. It just engenders irritation from the leave-me-the-fuck-alone crowd (of which there are many on this blog) and, speaking at a personal level, makes me happy to not live near you (and no, I don’t own a box truck). My Accord is pretty vanilla.
I don’t say that to be harsh but to be honest about how it comes off to me and I doubt I am alone on this.
Its a private vehicle on a city street and you find it ugly.
You can flame me for that but I don’t think I am wrong with regard to perception.
Correct me if I am.
Participant[quote=Ricechex][quote=temeculaguy]ricechex, you’ve been here long enough to know it is a trap to only respond to and focus on the attacks. Ignore the attacks, listen to to the constructive advice, steer the thread in a positive direction and get what you came for, advice and ideas. Plus, since when is a fat ass on a woman a bad thing? I’m fairly certain it is one of the things that proves there is a god and he loves us.[/quote]
Thanks TG. I figured I was getting on the defensive, and that is NEVER a place to be. And, the constructive advice is great….as usual. LOL on the fat asses….[/quote]
Your webcam makes you look quite attractive actually.
I am looking at it now.
However, in all seriousness, your premise for this post still seems pretty worthless. It just engenders irritation from the leave-me-the-fuck-alone crowd (of which there are many on this blog) and, speaking at a personal level, makes me happy to not live near you (and no, I don’t own a box truck). My Accord is pretty vanilla.
I don’t say that to be harsh but to be honest about how it comes off to me and I doubt I am alone on this.
Its a private vehicle on a city street and you find it ugly.
You can flame me for that but I don’t think I am wrong with regard to perception.
Correct me if I am.
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