[urbanrealtor]

Their estimates are best in sprawling subdivisions where you can draw a given radius around a property and use it to determine mean values.
They are worst in urban areas or near major neighborhood dividers (eg: Boulevards, freeways, malls).
The best example is that one on Myrtle in May of 2009 where the bank did a “zestimate” of nearby properties.
The comps were all south of University and east of the 805. The subject was west of the 805. As a result, the subject property was listed at 174k.
It got about 180 offers and closed at 280k (or thereabouts) for all-cash.
So probably good in La Costa or Temecula but bad in North Park.
My 2 bits.

[urbanrealtor]

Their estimates are best in sprawling subdivisions where you can draw a given radius around a property and use it to determine mean values.
They are worst in urban areas or near major neighborhood dividers (eg: Boulevards, freeways, malls).
The best example is that one on Myrtle in May of 2009 where the bank did a “zestimate” of nearby properties.
The comps were all south of University and east of the 805. The subject was west of the 805. As a result, the subject property was listed at 174k.
It got about 180 offers and closed at 280k (or thereabouts) for all-cash.
So probably good in La Costa or Temecula but bad in North Park.
My 2 bits.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=njtosd]
urbanrealtor –

Can you provide a little more information about why you think the buyer overpaid (at the time) by a few percent? If the seller doesn’t mind, can you tell us how much (in dollars) you think was overpaid? [/quote]
Sure.
The purchase was right around $400k.
The price that was quoted by a prospective listing agent was about $425k.
I took the 90 days before and after that closing date for similar room counts in a geographically contiguous area of which the subject was a part and did a tally of all closings. I felt that an appropriate price was $375k to $390k based on ppsf. Ppsf only counts when properties are similar and near each other. I was willing to go on the high side of my estimate since it was damn near the smallest unit of that room count in the sample set (smaller units tend to allow for a higher ppsf). Adam actually mad a good point about that a year or 2 ago with his “buy-the-easiest-to-afford-property-in-the-neighborhood-you-want” strategy. I am paraphrasing to the point of parody but it is really a sound strategy. The most beat up tiny house in La Jolla will go for more than its size and condition would suggest. Conversely, I have to keep repeating to my brother-in-law that just adding more rooms to his house in college area won’t translate into more equity based on PPSF (seriously who would spend $700k for a house with a staircase IN the master bedroom?!?!?!). But I digress. The point is that I would never suggest the higher number suggested by the agent.
[quote=njtosd]Considering the number of factors that can vary from property to property, I would think it would be difficult to cut it that close. [/quote]
I hear a lot that there are “many factors” or that an area “varies wildly”. I find that in the actual final numbers, the market selects for a combination of price, condition, and location. After a while you get a feel. I do this a lot and it never takes me very long to get offers for a listing but yeah, I could always be wrong. I am only human. The DIY in this example felt I did not know the area well. Maybe.

[quote=njtosd] Are there any realtors who (publicly) attempt to predict the ultimate sale price of homes on the market? (Don’t know if that would be ethical – ).[/quote]

I am not sure what would be unethical. No sale price is “ultimate” (this property resold for far more years later). It is our job to consult and give our opinion of market value for a given property in a given area at a given time. Perhaps I don’t understand what you are asking.

The issue I was addressing with the prospective listing agent was that they had suggested that the list price be $425k and I felt that it was above market but that sometimes that issue becomes irrelevant in an accelerating market (which it was).

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=njtosd]
urbanrealtor –

Can you provide a little more information about why you think the buyer overpaid (at the time) by a few percent? If the seller doesn’t mind, can you tell us how much (in dollars) you think was overpaid? [/quote]
Sure.
The purchase was right around $400k.
The price that was quoted by a prospective listing agent was about $425k.
I took the 90 days before and after that closing date for similar room counts in a geographically contiguous area of which the subject was a part and did a tally of all closings. I felt that an appropriate price was $375k to $390k based on ppsf. Ppsf only counts when properties are similar and near each other. I was willing to go on the high side of my estimate since it was damn near the smallest unit of that room count in the sample set (smaller units tend to allow for a higher ppsf). Adam actually mad a good point about that a year or 2 ago with his “buy-the-easiest-to-afford-property-in-the-neighborhood-you-want” strategy. I am paraphrasing to the point of parody but it is really a sound strategy. The most beat up tiny house in La Jolla will go for more than its size and condition would suggest. Conversely, I have to keep repeating to my brother-in-law that just adding more rooms to his house in college area won’t translate into more equity based on PPSF (seriously who would spend $700k for a house with a staircase IN the master bedroom?!?!?!). But I digress. The point is that I would never suggest the higher number suggested by the agent.
[quote=njtosd]Considering the number of factors that can vary from property to property, I would think it would be difficult to cut it that close. [/quote]
I hear a lot that there are “many factors” or that an area “varies wildly”. I find that in the actual final numbers, the market selects for a combination of price, condition, and location. After a while you get a feel. I do this a lot and it never takes me very long to get offers for a listing but yeah, I could always be wrong. I am only human. The DIY in this example felt I did not know the area well. Maybe.

[quote=njtosd] Are there any realtors who (publicly) attempt to predict the ultimate sale price of homes on the market? (Don’t know if that would be ethical – ).[/quote]

I am not sure what would be unethical. No sale price is “ultimate” (this property resold for far more years later). It is our job to consult and give our opinion of market value for a given property in a given area at a given time. Perhaps I don’t understand what you are asking.

The issue I was addressing with the prospective listing agent was that they had suggested that the list price be $425k and I felt that it was above market but that sometimes that issue becomes irrelevant in an accelerating market (which it was).

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=njtosd]
urbanrealtor –

Can you provide a little more information about why you think the buyer overpaid (at the time) by a few percent? If the seller doesn’t mind, can you tell us how much (in dollars) you think was overpaid? [/quote]
Sure.
The purchase was right around $400k.
The price that was quoted by a prospective listing agent was about $425k.
I took the 90 days before and after that closing date for similar room counts in a geographically contiguous area of which the subject was a part and did a tally of all closings. I felt that an appropriate price was $375k to $390k based on ppsf. Ppsf only counts when properties are similar and near each other. I was willing to go on the high side of my estimate since it was damn near the smallest unit of that room count in the sample set (smaller units tend to allow for a higher ppsf). Adam actually mad a good point about that a year or 2 ago with his “buy-the-easiest-to-afford-property-in-the-neighborhood-you-want” strategy. I am paraphrasing to the point of parody but it is really a sound strategy. The most beat up tiny house in La Jolla will go for more than its size and condition would suggest. Conversely, I have to keep repeating to my brother-in-law that just adding more rooms to his house in college area won’t translate into more equity based on PPSF (seriously who would spend $700k for a house with a staircase IN the master bedroom?!?!?!). But I digress. The point is that I would never suggest the higher number suggested by the agent.
[quote=njtosd]Considering the number of factors that can vary from property to property, I would think it would be difficult to cut it that close. [/quote]
I hear a lot that there are “many factors” or that an area “varies wildly”. I find that in the actual final numbers, the market selects for a combination of price, condition, and location. After a while you get a feel. I do this a lot and it never takes me very long to get offers for a listing but yeah, I could always be wrong. I am only human. The DIY in this example felt I did not know the area well. Maybe.

[quote=njtosd] Are there any realtors who (publicly) attempt to predict the ultimate sale price of homes on the market? (Don’t know if that would be ethical – ).[/quote]

I am not sure what would be unethical. No sale price is “ultimate” (this property resold for far more years later). It is our job to consult and give our opinion of market value for a given property in a given area at a given time. Perhaps I don’t understand what you are asking.

The issue I was addressing with the prospective listing agent was that they had suggested that the list price be $425k and I felt that it was above market but that sometimes that issue becomes irrelevant in an accelerating market (which it was).

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=njtosd]
urbanrealtor –

Can you provide a little more information about why you think the buyer overpaid (at the time) by a few percent? If the seller doesn’t mind, can you tell us how much (in dollars) you think was overpaid? [/quote]
Sure.
The purchase was right around $400k.
The price that was quoted by a prospective listing agent was about $425k.
I took the 90 days before and after that closing date for similar room counts in a geographically contiguous area of which the subject was a part and did a tally of all closings. I felt that an appropriate price was $375k to $390k based on ppsf. Ppsf only counts when properties are similar and near each other. I was willing to go on the high side of my estimate since it was damn near the smallest unit of that room count in the sample set (smaller units tend to allow for a higher ppsf). Adam actually mad a good point about that a year or 2 ago with his “buy-the-easiest-to-afford-property-in-the-neighborhood-you-want” strategy. I am paraphrasing to the point of parody but it is really a sound strategy. The most beat up tiny house in La Jolla will go for more than its size and condition would suggest. Conversely, I have to keep repeating to my brother-in-law that just adding more rooms to his house in college area won’t translate into more equity based on PPSF (seriously who would spend $700k for a house with a staircase IN the master bedroom?!?!?!). But I digress. The point is that I would never suggest the higher number suggested by the agent.
[quote=njtosd]Considering the number of factors that can vary from property to property, I would think it would be difficult to cut it that close. [/quote]
I hear a lot that there are “many factors” or that an area “varies wildly”. I find that in the actual final numbers, the market selects for a combination of price, condition, and location. After a while you get a feel. I do this a lot and it never takes me very long to get offers for a listing but yeah, I could always be wrong. I am only human. The DIY in this example felt I did not know the area well. Maybe.

[quote=njtosd] Are there any realtors who (publicly) attempt to predict the ultimate sale price of homes on the market? (Don’t know if that would be ethical – ).[/quote]

I am not sure what would be unethical. No sale price is “ultimate” (this property resold for far more years later). It is our job to consult and give our opinion of market value for a given property in a given area at a given time. Perhaps I don’t understand what you are asking.

The issue I was addressing with the prospective listing agent was that they had suggested that the list price be $425k and I felt that it was above market but that sometimes that issue becomes irrelevant in an accelerating market (which it was).

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=njtosd]
urbanrealtor –

Can you provide a little more information about why you think the buyer overpaid (at the time) by a few percent? If the seller doesn’t mind, can you tell us how much (in dollars) you think was overpaid? [/quote]
Sure.
The purchase was right around $400k.
The price that was quoted by a prospective listing agent was about $425k.
I took the 90 days before and after that closing date for similar room counts in a geographically contiguous area of which the subject was a part and did a tally of all closings. I felt that an appropriate price was $375k to $390k based on ppsf. Ppsf only counts when properties are similar and near each other. I was willing to go on the high side of my estimate since it was damn near the smallest unit of that room count in the sample set (smaller units tend to allow for a higher ppsf). Adam actually mad a good point about that a year or 2 ago with his “buy-the-easiest-to-afford-property-in-the-neighborhood-you-want” strategy. I am paraphrasing to the point of parody but it is really a sound strategy. The most beat up tiny house in La Jolla will go for more than its size and condition would suggest. Conversely, I have to keep repeating to my brother-in-law that just adding more rooms to his house in college area won’t translate into more equity based on PPSF (seriously who would spend $700k for a house with a staircase IN the master bedroom?!?!?!). But I digress. The point is that I would never suggest the higher number suggested by the agent.
[quote=njtosd]Considering the number of factors that can vary from property to property, I would think it would be difficult to cut it that close. [/quote]
I hear a lot that there are “many factors” or that an area “varies wildly”. I find that in the actual final numbers, the market selects for a combination of price, condition, and location. After a while you get a feel. I do this a lot and it never takes me very long to get offers for a listing but yeah, I could always be wrong. I am only human. The DIY in this example felt I did not know the area well. Maybe.

[quote=njtosd] Are there any realtors who (publicly) attempt to predict the ultimate sale price of homes on the market? (Don’t know if that would be ethical – ).[/quote]

I am not sure what would be unethical. No sale price is “ultimate” (this property resold for far more years later). It is our job to consult and give our opinion of market value for a given property in a given area at a given time. Perhaps I don’t understand what you are asking.

The issue I was addressing with the prospective listing agent was that they had suggested that the list price be $425k and I felt that it was above market but that sometimes that issue becomes irrelevant in an accelerating market (which it was).

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=AK]My understanding is that mortgage brokers make somewhere around 1% – 2% on each loan … obviously more if you’re getting ****ed.

I say look for your own backup financing, tell the other agent that you need his loan terms well before the end of the financing contingency period, and run the numbers to see which way you’re better off.

I’d also make sure there’s no prepayment penalty, so if you do get ****ed on that loan you can refinance.[/quote]
The most effective way to do that is to explicitly ask for a good faith estimate.
Ask it in an email.
The form he should send is one that you can take to other lenders and get an apples-to-apples comparison on cost.
My preferred lender usually asks that buyers get other lenders’ gfe’s prior to asking her to quote so she can beat them.
Its a good strategy.
Also, its your issue, dude but I can’t think of a more faux loyalty than representing a buyer as loan officer when you are listing agent for your brother the seller (is he your agent also?).
Just suggesting that speaks volumes about one’s moral “flexibility”.
My two bits.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=AK]My understanding is that mortgage brokers make somewhere around 1% – 2% on each loan … obviously more if you’re getting ****ed.

I say look for your own backup financing, tell the other agent that you need his loan terms well before the end of the financing contingency period, and run the numbers to see which way you’re better off.

I’d also make sure there’s no prepayment penalty, so if you do get ****ed on that loan you can refinance.[/quote]
The most effective way to do that is to explicitly ask for a good faith estimate.
Ask it in an email.
The form he should send is one that you can take to other lenders and get an apples-to-apples comparison on cost.
My preferred lender usually asks that buyers get other lenders’ gfe’s prior to asking her to quote so she can beat them.
Its a good strategy.
Also, its your issue, dude but I can’t think of a more faux loyalty than representing a buyer as loan officer when you are listing agent for your brother the seller (is he your agent also?).
Just suggesting that speaks volumes about one’s moral “flexibility”.
My two bits.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=AK]My understanding is that mortgage brokers make somewhere around 1% – 2% on each loan … obviously more if you’re getting ****ed.

I say look for your own backup financing, tell the other agent that you need his loan terms well before the end of the financing contingency period, and run the numbers to see which way you’re better off.

I’d also make sure there’s no prepayment penalty, so if you do get ****ed on that loan you can refinance.[/quote]
The most effective way to do that is to explicitly ask for a good faith estimate.
Ask it in an email.
The form he should send is one that you can take to other lenders and get an apples-to-apples comparison on cost.
My preferred lender usually asks that buyers get other lenders’ gfe’s prior to asking her to quote so she can beat them.
Its a good strategy.
Also, its your issue, dude but I can’t think of a more faux loyalty than representing a buyer as loan officer when you are listing agent for your brother the seller (is he your agent also?).
Just suggesting that speaks volumes about one’s moral “flexibility”.
My two bits.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=AK]My understanding is that mortgage brokers make somewhere around 1% – 2% on each loan … obviously more if you’re getting ****ed.

I say look for your own backup financing, tell the other agent that you need his loan terms well before the end of the financing contingency period, and run the numbers to see which way you’re better off.

I’d also make sure there’s no prepayment penalty, so if you do get ****ed on that loan you can refinance.[/quote]
The most effective way to do that is to explicitly ask for a good faith estimate.
Ask it in an email.
The form he should send is one that you can take to other lenders and get an apples-to-apples comparison on cost.
My preferred lender usually asks that buyers get other lenders’ gfe’s prior to asking her to quote so she can beat them.
Its a good strategy.
Also, its your issue, dude but I can’t think of a more faux loyalty than representing a buyer as loan officer when you are listing agent for your brother the seller (is he your agent also?).
Just suggesting that speaks volumes about one’s moral “flexibility”.
My two bits.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=AK]My understanding is that mortgage brokers make somewhere around 1% – 2% on each loan … obviously more if you’re getting ****ed.

I say look for your own backup financing, tell the other agent that you need his loan terms well before the end of the financing contingency period, and run the numbers to see which way you’re better off.

I’d also make sure there’s no prepayment penalty, so if you do get ****ed on that loan you can refinance.[/quote]
The most effective way to do that is to explicitly ask for a good faith estimate.
Ask it in an email.
The form he should send is one that you can take to other lenders and get an apples-to-apples comparison on cost.
My preferred lender usually asks that buyers get other lenders’ gfe’s prior to asking her to quote so she can beat them.
Its a good strategy.
Also, its your issue, dude but I can’t think of a more faux loyalty than representing a buyer as loan officer when you are listing agent for your brother the seller (is he your agent also?).
Just suggesting that speaks volumes about one’s moral “flexibility”.
My two bits.

[urbanrealtor]

DB:
Again, we are just repeating ourselves.
The California Bar is was described as acting like a union in a 1981 lawsuit ruling in 1989. So while there are 20 and 30 year old complaints, that does not make it something other than a government body (and the justices actually just said they had to act like it–not that they were something else).

The NAR has acted in unfair and anti-competitive ways but you have still not made a strong case that they are a monopoly.

Like I said, most people licensed to do this work don’t belong to said trade organization.

My grandad founded one of the earliest Midwest regional boards (this was shortly after the NAR, which my family business predates, had started existing). The benefit for him then is the same as it is for me now. It creates a more integrated environment and some common standards for doing business (eg: ethics complaints are taken much more seriously by CAR and SDAR than the DRE).

The downside is obvious though. While still not a monopoly, it does have a tendency to become insular and for members to not want to do business outside their comfort zone.

[urbanrealtor]

DB:
Again, we are just repeating ourselves.
The California Bar is was described as acting like a union in a 1981 lawsuit ruling in 1989. So while there are 20 and 30 year old complaints, that does not make it something other than a government body (and the justices actually just said they had to act like it–not that they were something else).

The NAR has acted in unfair and anti-competitive ways but you have still not made a strong case that they are a monopoly.

Like I said, most people licensed to do this work don’t belong to said trade organization.

My grandad founded one of the earliest Midwest regional boards (this was shortly after the NAR, which my family business predates, had started existing). The benefit for him then is the same as it is for me now. It creates a more integrated environment and some common standards for doing business (eg: ethics complaints are taken much more seriously by CAR and SDAR than the DRE).

The downside is obvious though. While still not a monopoly, it does have a tendency to become insular and for members to not want to do business outside their comfort zone.

[urbanrealtor]

DB:
Again, we are just repeating ourselves.
The California Bar is was described as acting like a union in a 1981 lawsuit ruling in 1989. So while there are 20 and 30 year old complaints, that does not make it something other than a government body (and the justices actually just said they had to act like it–not that they were something else).

The NAR has acted in unfair and anti-competitive ways but you have still not made a strong case that they are a monopoly.

Like I said, most people licensed to do this work don’t belong to said trade organization.

My grandad founded one of the earliest Midwest regional boards (this was shortly after the NAR, which my family business predates, had started existing). The benefit for him then is the same as it is for me now. It creates a more integrated environment and some common standards for doing business (eg: ethics complaints are taken much more seriously by CAR and SDAR than the DRE).

The downside is obvious though. While still not a monopoly, it does have a tendency to become insular and for members to not want to do business outside their comfort zone.

[Author]

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