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May 24, 2007 at 5:06 PM in reply to: Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there? #54911May 24, 2007 at 2:05 AM in reply to: Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there? #54674
temeculaguy
ParticipantSDhousehunter, I respect your right to make observations but I have an issue with a few of them. Let me preface by stating that I have lived here for 16 years, sold my last piece of real estate last year and am waiting with open arms for the price decline to re-purchase. The comments about the pechanga indians are unfounded (2000 census numbers for tribal enrollment are about 550 people, hardly the majority of the city) and if you’ve ever met one as I have they are nice people, some of who are adjusting to their 240k a year stipend but they will adjust in time and my friend actually had a degree and served in the military. The tattoo covered oversized white t-shirt folk I can guarantee are transplants who hopefully feel homesick for their hood in S.D., next time look closely at the tattoos, the ESCO, VHB (vista homeboys) or god knows how many Oceanside gangs are clues to where they hail from. As for Bible thumping uneducated folk, yes there is a sizable population of mormons and christians and there are a lot of churches, hardly the economic or cultural drain on the community you purport. I am not one of them but they make decent neighbors. As for people that lack a second language, if you are referring to spanish, guilty as charged, we lack the cultural diversity of many other places and few students are english learners, all I can say is we are working around the clock on fixing that.
finally, taken from yahoo Neighborhood research, likely pulled from census data
Temecula, CA 92592
Population of Temecula 56902
Median Age 31.4 years
Median Household Income $75292
Percentage of Single Households 29.5%
Percentage of Married Households 70.5%
Percentage Families (households with children) 47.1%
Average Household Size 3.32 people
Percentage College or Better 28.5%
Percentage White Collar 54.3%San Marcos, CA 92069
Population of San Marcos 54594
Median Age 35.8 years
Median Household Income $49473
Percentage of Single Households 39.6%
Percentage of Married Households 60.4%
Percentage Families (households with children) 28.4%
Average Household Size 2.82 people
Percentage College or Better 20.3%
Percentage White Collar 52.8%Carlsbad, CA 92008
Population of Carlsbad 36871
Median Age 39.1 years 37.47 years
Median Household Income $59743
Percentage of Single Households 45.7%
Percentage of Married Households 54.3%
Percentage Families (households with children) 20.1%
Average Household Size 2.4 people
Percentage College or Better 36.9%
Percentage White Collar 62%I randomly compared to San Marcos and Carlsbad (these could be crappy zip codes, it was a guess) since they are nice communites in San Diego, name a zip code, I’ll run it, unfortunately you will find that Temecula will not come out statistically as you see it. Yes, prices will drop, yes, minorities have been sighted and even allowed to live here and yes, we are glad you didn’t like it here, there is enough traffic.
P.S. you used the word, “complex” to describe your rental experience, since there are no apartments in 92592 I assume you either lived near Pujol Street or Near margarita and Solana since city planners were wise enough to put most of the “complexes” in the same place not to rile the bible thumping uneducated residents.
May 24, 2007 at 2:05 AM in reply to: Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there? #54688ParticipantSDhousehunter, I respect your right to make observations but I have an issue with a few of them. Let me preface by stating that I have lived here for 16 years, sold my last piece of real estate last year and am waiting with open arms for the price decline to re-purchase. The comments about the pechanga indians are unfounded (2000 census numbers for tribal enrollment are about 550 people, hardly the majority of the city) and if you’ve ever met one as I have they are nice people, some of who are adjusting to their 240k a year stipend but they will adjust in time and my friend actually had a degree and served in the military. The tattoo covered oversized white t-shirt folk I can guarantee are transplants who hopefully feel homesick for their hood in S.D., next time look closely at the tattoos, the ESCO, VHB (vista homeboys) or god knows how many Oceanside gangs are clues to where they hail from. As for Bible thumping uneducated folk, yes there is a sizable population of mormons and christians and there are a lot of churches, hardly the economic or cultural drain on the community you purport. I am not one of them but they make decent neighbors. As for people that lack a second language, if you are referring to spanish, guilty as charged, we lack the cultural diversity of many other places and few students are english learners, all I can say is we are working around the clock on fixing that.
finally, taken from yahoo Neighborhood research, likely pulled from census data
Temecula, CA 92592
Population of Temecula 56902
Median Age 31.4 years
Median Household Income $75292
Percentage of Single Households 29.5%
Percentage of Married Households 70.5%
Percentage Families (households with children) 47.1%
Average Household Size 3.32 people
Percentage College or Better 28.5%
Percentage White Collar 54.3%San Marcos, CA 92069
Population of San Marcos 54594
Median Age 35.8 years
Median Household Income $49473
Percentage of Single Households 39.6%
Percentage of Married Households 60.4%
Percentage Families (households with children) 28.4%
Average Household Size 2.82 people
Percentage College or Better 20.3%
Percentage White Collar 52.8%Carlsbad, CA 92008
Population of Carlsbad 36871
Median Age 39.1 years 37.47 years
Median Household Income $59743
Percentage of Single Households 45.7%
Percentage of Married Households 54.3%
Percentage Families (households with children) 20.1%
Average Household Size 2.4 people
Percentage College or Better 36.9%
Percentage White Collar 62%I randomly compared to San Marcos and Carlsbad (these could be crappy zip codes, it was a guess) since they are nice communites in San Diego, name a zip code, I’ll run it, unfortunately you will find that Temecula will not come out statistically as you see it. Yes, prices will drop, yes, minorities have been sighted and even allowed to live here and yes, we are glad you didn’t like it here, there is enough traffic.
P.S. you used the word, “complex” to describe your rental experience, since there are no apartments in 92592 I assume you either lived near Pujol Street or Near margarita and Solana since city planners were wise enough to put most of the “complexes” in the same place not to rile the bible thumping uneducated residents.
May 24, 2007 at 1:08 AM in reply to: Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there? #54666Participantunion, the 700k Temecula home is a rarity, usually they have 100k+ pool and ugrades sunk into them and would be well north of a mil in other places, or they have drunk the kool aid and will never sell. New developments are priced about 500k for over 3000sq ft. right now. 600k is high and would have to have 10k sq ft lot, view, etc. Things north of 700k often have land. Here’s a few in the mid 600’s in Redhawk (the most expensive development of the most expensive zip code)but they are still the high end ones. An 900k house in 4-s is 500-600 in Temecula, there are lots of things that make prices higher or lower but comparing apples to apples it is still at least 1/3 less. What makes a temec house worth 700k is beacuse that house is 1.2 mil in 4-s
And here is a cheaper 2700 sq ft, redhawk on the course with few upgrades and a small lot for 500k
May 24, 2007 at 1:08 AM in reply to: Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there? #54680Participantunion, the 700k Temecula home is a rarity, usually they have 100k+ pool and ugrades sunk into them and would be well north of a mil in other places, or they have drunk the kool aid and will never sell. New developments are priced about 500k for over 3000sq ft. right now. 600k is high and would have to have 10k sq ft lot, view, etc. Things north of 700k often have land. Here’s a few in the mid 600’s in Redhawk (the most expensive development of the most expensive zip code)but they are still the high end ones. An 900k house in 4-s is 500-600 in Temecula, there are lots of things that make prices higher or lower but comparing apples to apples it is still at least 1/3 less. What makes a temec house worth 700k is beacuse that house is 1.2 mil in 4-s
And here is a cheaper 2700 sq ft, redhawk on the course with few upgrades and a small lot for 500k
May 24, 2007 at 12:44 AM in reply to: Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there? #54661ParticipantTo answer former owner, the cash outs are a chunk of who has moved out here. My parents moved here after cashing out and paid cash (albeit they did it in 1999). They were nearing retirement so the commute didn’t affect them, they were close to the grandkids and they got a similar sized house in a similar community with the equity from their previous house. To them, the future price was a moot point. They didn’t want to move out of state and away from all of their grandkids and they got a house on a golf course in Range of the wineries without the 115 heat of many retirement areas like Arizona, Nevada or Palm Springs. They also picked up two rentals with cash that provide income. If prices do fall here first and faster than S.D. (which they will) it will be attractive to cash outs again. Never underestimate the benefit of not having a mortgage. The other reason is the Dr. Laura principle. Many couples with young kids will cash out of S.D. and subject the dad to a miserable commute in order to have a stay at home mom in the house, especially if Temec drops faster and further than S.D. so that the prices are closer to half of comparable homes in S.D.
May 24, 2007 at 12:44 AM in reply to: Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there? #54675ParticipantTo answer former owner, the cash outs are a chunk of who has moved out here. My parents moved here after cashing out and paid cash (albeit they did it in 1999). They were nearing retirement so the commute didn’t affect them, they were close to the grandkids and they got a similar sized house in a similar community with the equity from their previous house. To them, the future price was a moot point. They didn’t want to move out of state and away from all of their grandkids and they got a house on a golf course in Range of the wineries without the 115 heat of many retirement areas like Arizona, Nevada or Palm Springs. They also picked up two rentals with cash that provide income. If prices do fall here first and faster than S.D. (which they will) it will be attractive to cash outs again. Never underestimate the benefit of not having a mortgage. The other reason is the Dr. Laura principle. Many couples with young kids will cash out of S.D. and subject the dad to a miserable commute in order to have a stay at home mom in the house, especially if Temec drops faster and further than S.D. so that the prices are closer to half of comparable homes in S.D.
May 24, 2007 at 12:20 AM in reply to: Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there? #54654ParticipantO.K. hawk, those are fair rules. I need to research the murrieta zips before placing my bet but I will place a side wager of a shot of choice at the pub that 92592 falls last. I will gladly buy you a shot if you find me a 92592 down 50% because I’ll buy the shot and the house.
To answer the question the other poster said of why would anyone pay 500-700 for a home out here despite being far from San Diego, good question. The answer is that it is overpriced and with gas rising it will go down first but that doesn’t mean San Diego isn’t overpriced as well. The reality is that not everyone works in the city. I have mostly worked in North San Diego County for the last fifteen years and a 25 minute drive isn’t that big of a deal to me. The schools, crime rate and people are directly in comparison to Carlsbad, 4-s or Poway, well above any other reamaining N. County city and probably half the price of those three communities. They either don’t want to live in the places they can afford or they don’t actually drive to Downtown S.D. You may be suprised at the amount of jobs in North County San Diego and how expensive the housing is or how rotten the schools and neighborhoods are in the 400-500k areas of N. County. When I got out of college I got a job in Vista and the drive from San Diego took longer than the drive to work from Temecula, it was cheaper, nicer and safer than my options at the time so I moved. I can only guess that other have come over the years for similar reasons.
May 24, 2007 at 12:20 AM in reply to: Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there? #54669ParticipantO.K. hawk, those are fair rules. I need to research the murrieta zips before placing my bet but I will place a side wager of a shot of choice at the pub that 92592 falls last. I will gladly buy you a shot if you find me a 92592 down 50% because I’ll buy the shot and the house.
To answer the question the other poster said of why would anyone pay 500-700 for a home out here despite being far from San Diego, good question. The answer is that it is overpriced and with gas rising it will go down first but that doesn’t mean San Diego isn’t overpriced as well. The reality is that not everyone works in the city. I have mostly worked in North San Diego County for the last fifteen years and a 25 minute drive isn’t that big of a deal to me. The schools, crime rate and people are directly in comparison to Carlsbad, 4-s or Poway, well above any other reamaining N. County city and probably half the price of those three communities. They either don’t want to live in the places they can afford or they don’t actually drive to Downtown S.D. You may be suprised at the amount of jobs in North County San Diego and how expensive the housing is or how rotten the schools and neighborhoods are in the 400-500k areas of N. County. When I got out of college I got a job in Vista and the drive from San Diego took longer than the drive to work from Temecula, it was cheaper, nicer and safer than my options at the time so I moved. I can only guess that other have come over the years for similar reasons.
May 23, 2007 at 11:48 PM in reply to: DR Horton Slashes prices $100k in Murrieta, Menifee, Wildomar and more in … #54642Participant23109, I have to agree with your observations on demographics as they pertain to French Valley vs. Harveston. Basically these same argumants can be made of any master planned HOA development vs. non HOA. There’s no right or wrong, it’s a lifestyle choice. I can say that the places with the stricter rules seem to hold up better over time. Take a drive through Redhawk one day and you will see fifteen year old neighborhoods that look better that two year old neighborhoods in French Valley. Drive the whole redhawk loop and when it transitions to Vail Ranch (which doesn’t have an HOA but is newer) you will see that it looks older despite being newer.
The guy with all the toys and no window coverings or landscaping avoids the strict communities, ridicules their rules and complains of the lack of space for his toys and all the uppity people that lack tattoos and open minds. Those accusations might be true but in fifteen years harveston will still look good and command better resale prices in comparison.
May 23, 2007 at 11:48 PM in reply to: DR Horton Slashes prices $100k in Murrieta, Menifee, Wildomar and more in … #54657Participant23109, I have to agree with your observations on demographics as they pertain to French Valley vs. Harveston. Basically these same argumants can be made of any master planned HOA development vs. non HOA. There’s no right or wrong, it’s a lifestyle choice. I can say that the places with the stricter rules seem to hold up better over time. Take a drive through Redhawk one day and you will see fifteen year old neighborhoods that look better that two year old neighborhoods in French Valley. Drive the whole redhawk loop and when it transitions to Vail Ranch (which doesn’t have an HOA but is newer) you will see that it looks older despite being newer.
The guy with all the toys and no window coverings or landscaping avoids the strict communities, ridicules their rules and complains of the lack of space for his toys and all the uppity people that lack tattoos and open minds. Those accusations might be true but in fifteen years harveston will still look good and command better resale prices in comparison.
May 23, 2007 at 11:00 PM in reply to: Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there? #54626ParticipantHawk and Former, I want in on the bet, hell I’ll buy the beers anyway because my guess is too vague to be classified as a bet. I think we should have to name a zip code, like calling a pocket in billiards.
For clarification is it just the city of Temecula or the Temecula Valley. I think you are both right. French Valley and Wildomar will hit 50% off peak in 4-5 months, central Murrieta in 7-10 months and North Temecula 92591 10-12 months, South Temecula 92592 12-15 months. Looking at the zip codes from North to South the household income decreases as you move north and the amount of peak price development went the opposite direction. Right now the NOD’s and forclosures in the french valley are running at 2x to 3x that of temecula when you factor population and run nods by zip. They are legally in the city of murrieta but only by virtue of annexation and they are pretty far removed from what most consider murrieta and some parts aren’t in the school district. They will all go down the bathtub drain but those closest to the drain will go first.
May 23, 2007 at 11:00 PM in reply to: Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there? #54641ParticipantHawk and Former, I want in on the bet, hell I’ll buy the beers anyway because my guess is too vague to be classified as a bet. I think we should have to name a zip code, like calling a pocket in billiards.
For clarification is it just the city of Temecula or the Temecula Valley. I think you are both right. French Valley and Wildomar will hit 50% off peak in 4-5 months, central Murrieta in 7-10 months and North Temecula 92591 10-12 months, South Temecula 92592 12-15 months. Looking at the zip codes from North to South the household income decreases as you move north and the amount of peak price development went the opposite direction. Right now the NOD’s and forclosures in the french valley are running at 2x to 3x that of temecula when you factor population and run nods by zip. They are legally in the city of murrieta but only by virtue of annexation and they are pretty far removed from what most consider murrieta and some parts aren’t in the school district. They will all go down the bathtub drain but those closest to the drain will go first.
ParticipantThe NOD’s seem to be mostly Feb, Mar and April. From memory this story broke at the tail end of last year. I would guess these foreclosures should hit the market over the next few months, adding to the already record high inventory. The builders are just now showing signs of panic. This may turn out to be an exciting summer. I had always thought summer 2008 would be when things got bad but this is going to fast forward things in the Temecula Valley, especially multiple foreclosures per street from the same lender will hit the market psyche hard. Protests at the mall will not bring them any help and will only cause more people lose confidence, especially buyers exiting the freeway on the way to model homes.
This has almost become a predictable ride, next stop, price declines. The stop after that, payment resets with upside down owners unable to refi, leading to more foreclosures. this will cause a snowball effect, Get your handbasket.
ParticipantThe NOD’s seem to be mostly Feb, Mar and April. From memory this story broke at the tail end of last year. I would guess these foreclosures should hit the market over the next few months, adding to the already record high inventory. The builders are just now showing signs of panic. This may turn out to be an exciting summer. I had always thought summer 2008 would be when things got bad but this is going to fast forward things in the Temecula Valley, especially multiple foreclosures per street from the same lender will hit the market psyche hard. Protests at the mall will not bring them any help and will only cause more people lose confidence, especially buyers exiting the freeway on the way to model homes.
This has almost become a predictable ride, next stop, price declines. The stop after that, payment resets with upside down owners unable to refi, leading to more foreclosures. this will cause a snowball effect, Get your handbasket.
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