[temeculaguy]

He’s right it won’t be like the 90’s, it will be so much worse he will wish for the 90’s. The 90’s and today are different because there was no widespread use of toxic mortgages, the norm was 20% down and 33% income to housing expense ratio. That norm will be returning shortly and the effect of allowing a market to swing that far off course and then be brought back, well, we don’t know because it has never happened. I can bet it won’t soften the blow, how much harder is anyone’s guess. Had this market peaked in 2003 we would be in for a 1995, probably pulling out of it right now, too late for that now.

[temeculaguy]

He’s right it won’t be like the 90’s, it will be so much worse he will wish for the 90’s. The 90’s and today are different because there was no widespread use of toxic mortgages, the norm was 20% down and 33% income to housing expense ratio. That norm will be returning shortly and the effect of allowing a market to swing that far off course and then be brought back, well, we don’t know because it has never happened. I can bet it won’t soften the blow, how much harder is anyone’s guess. Had this market peaked in 2003 we would be in for a 1995, probably pulling out of it right now, too late for that now.

[temeculaguy]

He’s right it won’t be like the 90’s, it will be so much worse he will wish for the 90’s. The 90’s and today are different because there was no widespread use of toxic mortgages, the norm was 20% down and 33% income to housing expense ratio. That norm will be returning shortly and the effect of allowing a market to swing that far off course and then be brought back, well, we don’t know because it has never happened. I can bet it won’t soften the blow, how much harder is anyone’s guess. Had this market peaked in 2003 we would be in for a 1995, probably pulling out of it right now, too late for that now.

[temeculaguy]

All speculation was against a rate cut, potential rate moves can be played on the market just like a horse can be bet at del mar. The line has been between 12-1 and 8-1 against a rate cut so how can you make the statement that “ALL SPECULATION LEAD PEOPLE TO BELIEVE THAT A RATE CUT WAS COMING?”

I haven’t checked the line for the remaining part of the year but I bet the odds are in favor of no cut for the rest of the year. Don’t buy in to the hype of the media getting excited over a fed meeting, study the fed, the chairman and the members continue to make statements that don’t indicate a cut unless that is what you want to hear. Everything I read from federal reserve members, past and present is that inflation matters more than the stock market. That they think corrections are healthy and are needed to prevent crashes. That credit worthy borrowers still have access to capital and that rates and liquidity shifts are only going to eliminate purchases that shouldn’t be made. The buyers of MBS’s are going through a flight to quality and those market forces are natural and healthy. I see this as the elimination of junk food on the menu and the investors realize they are risk for a heart attack for eating crap, but there’s still plenty of chicken and vegetables on the menu, so eat up becuase bernanke is a health food kinda guy.

The reality is that people with good credit and down payments will still be able to buy houses, the elimination of some buyers will cause prices to decline to historical levels and then all is right with the world, how is this something to be feared? How is this not completely expected? How many times have you read this on these boards?

[temeculaguy]

All speculation was against a rate cut, potential rate moves can be played on the market just like a horse can be bet at del mar. The line has been between 12-1 and 8-1 against a rate cut so how can you make the statement that “ALL SPECULATION LEAD PEOPLE TO BELIEVE THAT A RATE CUT WAS COMING?”

I haven’t checked the line for the remaining part of the year but I bet the odds are in favor of no cut for the rest of the year. Don’t buy in to the hype of the media getting excited over a fed meeting, study the fed, the chairman and the members continue to make statements that don’t indicate a cut unless that is what you want to hear. Everything I read from federal reserve members, past and present is that inflation matters more than the stock market. That they think corrections are healthy and are needed to prevent crashes. That credit worthy borrowers still have access to capital and that rates and liquidity shifts are only going to eliminate purchases that shouldn’t be made. The buyers of MBS’s are going through a flight to quality and those market forces are natural and healthy. I see this as the elimination of junk food on the menu and the investors realize they are risk for a heart attack for eating crap, but there’s still plenty of chicken and vegetables on the menu, so eat up becuase bernanke is a health food kinda guy.

The reality is that people with good credit and down payments will still be able to buy houses, the elimination of some buyers will cause prices to decline to historical levels and then all is right with the world, how is this something to be feared? How is this not completely expected? How many times have you read this on these boards?

[temeculaguy]

All speculation was against a rate cut, potential rate moves can be played on the market just like a horse can be bet at del mar. The line has been between 12-1 and 8-1 against a rate cut so how can you make the statement that “ALL SPECULATION LEAD PEOPLE TO BELIEVE THAT A RATE CUT WAS COMING?”

I haven’t checked the line for the remaining part of the year but I bet the odds are in favor of no cut for the rest of the year. Don’t buy in to the hype of the media getting excited over a fed meeting, study the fed, the chairman and the members continue to make statements that don’t indicate a cut unless that is what you want to hear. Everything I read from federal reserve members, past and present is that inflation matters more than the stock market. That they think corrections are healthy and are needed to prevent crashes. That credit worthy borrowers still have access to capital and that rates and liquidity shifts are only going to eliminate purchases that shouldn’t be made. The buyers of MBS’s are going through a flight to quality and those market forces are natural and healthy. I see this as the elimination of junk food on the menu and the investors realize they are risk for a heart attack for eating crap, but there’s still plenty of chicken and vegetables on the menu, so eat up becuase bernanke is a health food kinda guy.

The reality is that people with good credit and down payments will still be able to buy houses, the elimination of some buyers will cause prices to decline to historical levels and then all is right with the world, how is this something to be feared? How is this not completely expected? How many times have you read this on these boards?

[temeculaguy]

4-S is a nice area and has a lot going for it, so does Rancho Bernardo, Scripps, Poway and much of 56 corridor. The reason 4-S gets alot of attention on these boards as a place to watch in the downturn is that most of it was purchased during the bubble years when almost all the financing was toxic or near toxic and is more susceptible to distress. Most of the owners of the homes owe a large percentage of their value and some if not many will become upside down which is not the case in the older upscale areas. Most, not all of the owners in the older areas are sitting on enough equity to easily ride things out and have comfortable fixed payments. Residential real estate pricing has a lot to do with comps and comps are decided based on proximity. IMO, 4-S has the greatest propensity to overshoot the downside in the coming year or years that other higer end areas just based on when it was built and financed. Buying in 4-S now would be a terrible mistake but keeping your eye on it over the next 24 months would be very wise indeed.

[temeculaguy]

4-S is a nice area and has a lot going for it, so does Rancho Bernardo, Scripps, Poway and much of 56 corridor. The reason 4-S gets alot of attention on these boards as a place to watch in the downturn is that most of it was purchased during the bubble years when almost all the financing was toxic or near toxic and is more susceptible to distress. Most of the owners of the homes owe a large percentage of their value and some if not many will become upside down which is not the case in the older upscale areas. Most, not all of the owners in the older areas are sitting on enough equity to easily ride things out and have comfortable fixed payments. Residential real estate pricing has a lot to do with comps and comps are decided based on proximity. IMO, 4-S has the greatest propensity to overshoot the downside in the coming year or years that other higer end areas just based on when it was built and financed. Buying in 4-S now would be a terrible mistake but keeping your eye on it over the next 24 months would be very wise indeed.

[temeculaguy]

4-S is a nice area and has a lot going for it, so does Rancho Bernardo, Scripps, Poway and much of 56 corridor. The reason 4-S gets alot of attention on these boards as a place to watch in the downturn is that most of it was purchased during the bubble years when almost all the financing was toxic or near toxic and is more susceptible to distress. Most of the owners of the homes owe a large percentage of their value and some if not many will become upside down which is not the case in the older upscale areas. Most, not all of the owners in the older areas are sitting on enough equity to easily ride things out and have comfortable fixed payments. Residential real estate pricing has a lot to do with comps and comps are decided based on proximity. IMO, 4-S has the greatest propensity to overshoot the downside in the coming year or years that other higer end areas just based on when it was built and financed. Buying in 4-S now would be a terrible mistake but keeping your eye on it over the next 24 months would be very wise indeed.

[temeculaguy]

Breeze, i didn’t short any of the builders because I am an idiot. I thought about it but I really didn’t think it would go to hell this fast, subscribing to the “things unwind slowly” theory up until a few weeks ago. I completely divested myself from the market a while back except for 401 and 457 stuff, thinking stock markets tank fast, housing markets don’t, further evidence that I should not be allowed access to sharp objects. A bunch of others have been playing against lenders like countrywide and winning big (JWM, capeman and a few others, it was in another post called “betting against the tan man” because the ceo of countrywide, angelo mozilo, is freakishly tan) so i bet they played against the builders and won there too. At this point I worry that it’s too late because some have dropped 75% so there’s not much left to drop. I am probably wrong on this too and next week I will downgrade myself from the standard sized crayons to the really fat crayons that come 8 to a box. Seriously, ignore any and all stock advice from me, I am the epitome of Albert Brooks in Defending Your Life, I came within inches of buying Yahoo in the beginning wussed out at the last second, if I hadn’t followed my gut on that I’d be so rich I’d have a full time employee just to type my blog posts for me while I was fed grapes. Had another one I bought at 4, sold at eight and watched it go to 90, oh yeah and another time a buddy tried to talk me into qualcomm ten years ago but I put in a pool instead, he paid cash for a big house in old scripps on that one. The list goes on and on, it’s a wonder I am not on the corner yelling at passing cars.

[temeculaguy]

Breeze, i didn’t short any of the builders because I am an idiot. I thought about it but I really didn’t think it would go to hell this fast, subscribing to the “things unwind slowly” theory up until a few weeks ago. I completely divested myself from the market a while back except for 401 and 457 stuff, thinking stock markets tank fast, housing markets don’t, further evidence that I should not be allowed access to sharp objects. A bunch of others have been playing against lenders like countrywide and winning big (JWM, capeman and a few others, it was in another post called “betting against the tan man” because the ceo of countrywide, angelo mozilo, is freakishly tan) so i bet they played against the builders and won there too. At this point I worry that it’s too late because some have dropped 75% so there’s not much left to drop. I am probably wrong on this too and next week I will downgrade myself from the standard sized crayons to the really fat crayons that come 8 to a box. Seriously, ignore any and all stock advice from me, I am the epitome of Albert Brooks in Defending Your Life, I came within inches of buying Yahoo in the beginning wussed out at the last second, if I hadn’t followed my gut on that I’d be so rich I’d have a full time employee just to type my blog posts for me while I was fed grapes. Had another one I bought at 4, sold at eight and watched it go to 90, oh yeah and another time a buddy tried to talk me into qualcomm ten years ago but I put in a pool instead, he paid cash for a big house in old scripps on that one. The list goes on and on, it’s a wonder I am not on the corner yelling at passing cars.

[temeculaguy]

Breeze, i didn’t short any of the builders because I am an idiot. I thought about it but I really didn’t think it would go to hell this fast, subscribing to the “things unwind slowly” theory up until a few weeks ago. I completely divested myself from the market a while back except for 401 and 457 stuff, thinking stock markets tank fast, housing markets don’t, further evidence that I should not be allowed access to sharp objects. A bunch of others have been playing against lenders like countrywide and winning big (JWM, capeman and a few others, it was in another post called “betting against the tan man” because the ceo of countrywide, angelo mozilo, is freakishly tan) so i bet they played against the builders and won there too. At this point I worry that it’s too late because some have dropped 75% so there’s not much left to drop. I am probably wrong on this too and next week I will downgrade myself from the standard sized crayons to the really fat crayons that come 8 to a box. Seriously, ignore any and all stock advice from me, I am the epitome of Albert Brooks in Defending Your Life, I came within inches of buying Yahoo in the beginning wussed out at the last second, if I hadn’t followed my gut on that I’d be so rich I’d have a full time employee just to type my blog posts for me while I was fed grapes. Had another one I bought at 4, sold at eight and watched it go to 90, oh yeah and another time a buddy tried to talk me into qualcomm ten years ago but I put in a pool instead, he paid cash for a big house in old scripps on that one. The list goes on and on, it’s a wonder I am not on the corner yelling at passing cars.

[temeculaguy]

Alan, don’t get me started on Costco, they need two at least, come to think of it, those of you from the brook and deluz are part of the problem all that money and no stores. There’s only 95k people in my hood and it has almost 2.3 billion in retail sales, If it were in S.D. county it would be third behind the city of S.D. and just below Escondido and 23rd in the state, double the sales of comparable sized cities in S.D. Good for city coffers but it sucks trying to park at the store.

http://californiaretailsurvey.netfirms.com/pr01.htm

Maybe the declining amount of heloc’s will allow both of us to find a parking space. As waitinghawk is fond of quoting the movie Braveheart “It’s my island, get off my island.”

[temeculaguy]

Alan, don’t get me started on Costco, they need two at least, come to think of it, those of you from the brook and deluz are part of the problem all that money and no stores. There’s only 95k people in my hood and it has almost 2.3 billion in retail sales, If it were in S.D. county it would be third behind the city of S.D. and just below Escondido and 23rd in the state, double the sales of comparable sized cities in S.D. Good for city coffers but it sucks trying to park at the store.

http://californiaretailsurvey.netfirms.com/pr01.htm

Maybe the declining amount of heloc’s will allow both of us to find a parking space. As waitinghawk is fond of quoting the movie Braveheart “It’s my island, get off my island.”

[temeculaguy]

Alan, don’t get me started on Costco, they need two at least, come to think of it, those of you from the brook and deluz are part of the problem all that money and no stores. There’s only 95k people in my hood and it has almost 2.3 billion in retail sales, If it were in S.D. county it would be third behind the city of S.D. and just below Escondido and 23rd in the state, double the sales of comparable sized cities in S.D. Good for city coffers but it sucks trying to park at the store.

http://californiaretailsurvey.netfirms.com/pr01.htm

Maybe the declining amount of heloc’s will allow both of us to find a parking space. As waitinghawk is fond of quoting the movie Braveheart “It’s my island, get off my island.”

[Author]

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